{"id":17370,"date":"2020-04-23T12:00:50","date_gmt":"2020-04-23T12:13:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/04\/23\/26c0444045\/"},"modified":"2020-04-23T20:14:00","modified_gmt":"2020-04-23T12:14:00","slug":"26c0444045","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/04\/23\/26c0444045\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u56fd\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u5e73\u8861\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c390\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u56fd\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u5e73\u8861\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u672c\u6587\u5728\u8bc4\u8bba\u57284\u672c\u6709\u5173\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e00\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u91cd\u65b0\u68b3\u7406\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\uff08balance of power theory\uff09\u3001\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff08theories of power balances\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff08theories of balancing\uff09\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u201c\u5236\u8861\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u91cd\u65b0\u754c\u5b9a\uff0c\u5e76\u547c\u5401\u4ece\u66f4\u4e3a\u5bbd\u5e7f\u548c\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u770b\u5f85\u5747\u52bf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Daniel H. Nexon<\/span>\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u57ce\u5927\u5b66\u5916\u4ea4\u5b66\u9662\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u7cfb\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u5b97\u6559\u653f\u6cbb\u7b49\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5de5\u4f5c\uff08<\/span>2<\/span>009<\/span>–<\/span>2010<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e<\/span>2014-2018<\/span>\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb<\/span> International Studies Quarterly<\/span>\uff08<\/span>\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u5b63\u520a\u300b<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u4e3b\u7f16\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u5d14\u5b87\u6db5\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u7f16\u8bd1\u5458\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u9662\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u65bd   \u6995<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u5434\u7693\u73a5<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6392\u7248\u3011<\/strong><\/span>\u738b\u56fd\u4f1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Nexon, D. (2009). The Balance of Power in the Balance. <\/span>World Politics, 61<\/span><\/em>(2), 330-359.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u300b\uff08World Politics\uff09\u521b\u520a\u4e8e1948\u5e74\uff0c\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5b63\u520a\u30022018\u5e74\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a3.368\uff0c\u5728176\u4e2a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u520a\u7269\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c15\uff0c\u572891\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u520a\u7269\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5e73\u8861\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Balance of Power in the Balance<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u56fd\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u5e73\u8861\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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Daniel H. Nexon<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Victoria Tin-bor Hui. 2005. War and State Formation in Ancient China and Early Modern Europe.<\/em> Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 308 pp.\u300a\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f62\u6210<\/strong>:\u6625\u79cb\u6218\u56fd\u4e0e\u8fd1\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u6b27\u6d32\u4e4b\u6bd4\u8f83\u300b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Stuart J. Kaufman, Richard Little, and William C. Wohlforth, eds. 2007. The Balance of Power in World History<\/em>. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 288 pp.\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u300b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

T. V. Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michael Fortmann, eds. 2004. Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century<\/em>. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 400 pp. \u300a\u5747\u52bf<\/strong>:21\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u300b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Randall L. Schweller. 2006. Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power<\/em>. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 200 pp.\u300a\u6ca1\u6709\u5e94\u7b54\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff1a<\/strong>\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u7ea6<\/strong>\u300b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u9762\u4e34\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u81ea1979\u5e74\u80af\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\uff08Kenneth Waltz\uff09\u7684\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u51fa\u7248\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5b83\u4fbf\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u65e0\u6570\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4eec\u4e89\u8bba\u5747\u52bf\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u5426\u6bd4\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9009\u62e9\u8ffd\u968f\uff08bandwagon\uff09\u3002\u51b7\u6218\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u5ba3\u79f0\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5df2\u7ecf\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u800c\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u5e94\u7528\u5747\u52bf\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u51b7\u6218\u4e24\u6781\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u65b0\u7684\u591a\u6781\u5316\u7684\u6743\u529b\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u5236\u8861\u7684\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8bb8\u591a\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4e5f\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u9762\u63d0\u51fa\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4ee5\u65bd\u52a8\u8005\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08agent-based model\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5b58\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6743\u529b\u8f6c\u79fb\u7406\u8bba\uff08power transition theory\uff09\u548c\u9738\u6743\u79e9\u5e8f\u7406\u8bba\uff08hegemonic order theory\uff09\u6108\u53d1\u53d7\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u4e0e\u5927\u6218\u7565\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u7684\u9752\u7750\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u547c\u5401\u4e0d\u8981\u653e\u5f03\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\uff08soft balancing\uff09\u548c\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u5236\u8861\uff08asymmetric balancing\uff09\u7b49\u8303\u7574\u6765\u6269\u5c55\u5236\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u300a\u5747\u52bf<\/strong>:21\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u300b<\/strong>\u4e00\u4e66\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5371\u673a\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u90fd\u540c\u610f\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u9762\u4e34\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5374\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5176\u4ed6\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u610f\u89c1\u76f8\u5de6\u3002\u4fdd\u7f57\uff08 T. V. Paul\uff09\u60f3\u8981\u6269\u5c55\u5236\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4ee5\u5305\u542b\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\u4e0e\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u5236\u8861\u7b49\u53d8\u4f53\u3002\u5217\u7ef4\uff08Jack S. Levy\uff09\u62a8\u51fb\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8bf8\u591a\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u5e38\u65e0\u6cd5\u201c\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6297\u82f1\u7f8e\u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u6d77\u4e0a\u5f3a\u6743\u7684\u5236\u8861\u8054\u76df\u201d\u3002\u83b1\u59c6\u57fa(Douglas Lemke) \u5728\u80af\u5b9a\u4e86\u6743\u529b\u8f6c\u79fb\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u4e86\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7c73\u5c14\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08John Mearsheimer\uff09\u7684\u201c\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5e03\u52b3\u5229\uff08Mark R. Brawley\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u201c\u8d22\u5bcc\u5411\u6743\u529b\u7684\u8f6c\u5316\u7387\u201d\u548c\u201c\u8054\u76df\u7684\u53ef\u83b7\u6027\u201d\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u83b1\u6069\uff08Christopher Layne\uff09\u3001\u6c83\u5179(James Wirtz)\u548c\u7f57\u5179(Edward Rhodes) \u6839\u636e\u201c\u65b0\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6311\u6218\u201d\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u800c\u963f\u7279(Robert J. Art)\u3001\u6c83\u5c14\u798f\u65af (William C. Wohlforth)\u3001\u9646\u4f2f\u5f6c(Robert S. Ross)\u7b49\u4eba\u5219\u4f9d\u636e\u6b27\u6d32\u3001\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u7b49\u5730\u533a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5bf9\uff0c\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u300b<\/strong>\u4e00\u4e66\u5219\u6301\u7eed\u62a8\u51fb\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u516c\u51431300\u5e74~\u516c\u51431900\u5e74\u4ece\u53e4\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5230\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u867d\u7136\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u52a8\u6001\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u9738\u6743\u56fd\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u9738\u6743\u56fd\u7684\u884c\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u3001\u5404\u653f\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u7279\u6b8a\u8eab\u4efd\u8ba4\u540c\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u8303\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7b49\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u7b49\u7ea7\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u300a\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f62\u6210<\/strong>:\u6625\u79cb\u6218\u56fd\u4e0e\u8fd1\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u6b27\u6d32\u4e4b\u6bd4\u8f83\u300b<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb8\u7530\u6ce2\uff08Victoria Tin-bor Hui\uff09\u5c06\u8fd1\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u6b27\u6d32\u4e0e\u6218\u56fd\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u5979\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u6784\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f62\u5f0f\u548c\u6218\u7565\u52a8\u6001\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u6743\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u7ade\u4e89\u6d89\u53ca\u201c\u5236\u8861\u903b\u8f91\u201d\uff08\u201clogics of balancing\u201d\uff09\u4e0e\u201c\u652f\u914d\u903b\u8f91\u201d\uff08\u201clogics of domination\u201d\uff09\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u8bb8\u7530\u6ce2\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u79e6\u5efa\u7acb\u5927\u4e00\u7edf\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u81ea\u5f3a\u578b\u6539\u9769\uff08self-strengthening reform\uff09\u548c\u65bd\u884c\u6743\u529b\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u514b\u670d\u5236\u8861\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u800c\u5747\u52bf\u5728\u8fd1\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\uff0c\u5e94\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8584\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\u6240\u63a8\u5b9a\u800c\u6765\u7684\u5236\u8861\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65bd\u97e6\u52d2(Randall Schweller)\u6240\u8457\u300a\u6ca1\u6709\u5e94\u7b54\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff1a<\/strong>\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u7ea6<\/strong>\u300b<\/strong>\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u4e3a\u8d5e\u540c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u65bd\u97e6\u52d2\u540c\u5176\u4ed6\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u72b6\u6001\u4f1a\u4fc3\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5173\u6ce8\u76f8\u5bf9\u6743\u529b\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6743\u529b\u5206\u914d\u53ca\u5176\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e3b\u8981\u6e90\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002\u56fd\u5bb6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5236\u8861\u4e0d\u8db3\uff08underbalance\uff09\u3001\u5236\u8861\u3001\u5236\u8861\u8fc7\u5ea6\uff08overbalance\uff09\u6216\u8005\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u5236\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u65bd\u97e6\u52d2\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b4\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u56fd\u5bb6\u5236\u8861\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a\u7cbe\u82f1\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u56fd\u5185\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u201c\u7cbe\u82f1\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u201d\uff08\u201celite cohesion\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5185\u90e8\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u201d\uff08\u201csocial cohesion\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u653f\u6743\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u201d\uff08\u201cregime vulnerability\u201d\uff09\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u653f\u6743\u7684\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fdb\u7a0b\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u5236\u8861\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u800c\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u7cbe\u82f1\u5171\u8bc6\u3001\u7cbe\u82f1\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u548c\u653f\u6743\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5b9e\u73b0\u5236\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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02<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\u6700\u8fd1\u5173\u4e8e\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u4eba\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u5bf9\u201c\u5236\u8861\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5747\u52bf\u201d\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bcd\u7ed9\u4e88\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7cbe\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u8fdb\u5c55\u5e76\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6770\u514b\u2022\u5217\u7ef4(Jack Levy)\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff1a\u201c\u867d\u7136\u5747\u52bf\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u6a21\u7cca\u3001\u6700\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u90a3\u4e48\u68d8\u624b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u8457\u4f5c\u90fd\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u5747\u52bf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5747\u8861\uff08<\/strong>equilibrium<\/strong>\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7531\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u5047\u5b9a\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u4f53\u7cfb<\/strong>\u6027\u7684<\/strong>\u5747\u52bf<\/strong>\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u67d0\u79cd\u81ea\u7136\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/strong>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c06\u963b\u6b62\u751a\u81f3\u7834\u574f\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5355\u4e00\u653f\u6cbb\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u624b\u4e2d\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u8bd5\u56fe\u5b9a\u4e49\u5236\u8861\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5171\u8bc6\u88ab\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u591a\u79cd\u76f8\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f7f\u5f53\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u590d\u6742\u5316\u3002\u800c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u4e0e\u5747\u52bf\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u6d41\u6d3e\uff1a\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u51e0\u7c7b\u7406\u8bba\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56fe\u65b9\u5f0f\u76f8\u4e92\u4ea4\u53c9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u56fd\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u5e73\u8861\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u603b\u662f\u8865\u5145\uff08supply\uff09\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u6743\u529b\u5747\u8861<\/strong>\u7406\u8bba<\/strong>\u7ecf\u5e38\u542b\u6709\u3001<\/strong>\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u542b<\/strong>\u6709\u5236\u8861<\/strong>\u7406\u8bba<\/strong>\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u5f80\u5f80\u9690\u542b\u7740\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u56fd\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u3001\u4f55\u65f6\u3001\u4e3a\u4f55\u91c7\u53d6\u5236\u8861\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u89c6\u4e3a\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u5f62\u6210\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5747\u52bf\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u673a\u5236\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u548c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u5f3a\u5230\u5f31\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u4f53\uff08<\/strong>continuum<\/strong>\uff09\u3002<\/strong>\u6700\u5f3a\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u673a\u5236\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u7b49\u7ea7\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u800c\u6700\u5f31\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53d8\u4f53\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fde\u7eed\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u6bd4\u8f83\u6a21\u7cca\u3002\u6709\u65f6\uff0c\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u63cf\u8ff0\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u76f8\u5f53\u5f3a\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53d8\u4f53\uff1b\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u575a\u6301\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u7ed3\u6784\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u673a\u5236\u53ea\u662f\u671d\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u4e0a\u201c\u5851\u9020\u548c\u63a8\u52a8\u201d\u5355\u5143\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u7ed3\u6784\u673a\u5236\u53ea\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u5404\u56fd\u5949\u884c\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5171\u540c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u662f\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u5141\u8bb8\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u5ffd\u89c6\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u9884\u671f\u4e00\u79cd\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u8bae\u9898\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u5c06\u514b\u670d\u5747\u52bf\u673a\u5236\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5176\u91cd\u5851\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u6bd4\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u6240\u5448\u73b0\u7684\u66f4\u5f31\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u518d\u6b21\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7ed3\u6784\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u5411\u8fde\u7eed\u4f53\u7684\u5f31\u4fa7\u63a8\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u8fdc\uff0c\u5176\u4e3b\u5f20\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0e\u5f53\u4ee3\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53d8\u4f53\u522b\u65e0\u4e8c\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u90fd\u542b\u6709\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u65e8\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u5236\u8861\u6027\u5747\u8861\uff08balancing equilibria\uff09\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u4f46\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4e00\u5b9a\u8d8b\u5411\u4e8e\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u533a\u5206\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8003\u8651\u4e0a\u3002\u5217\u7ef4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u51e0\u4e4e\u603b\u662f\u4ece\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4f46\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u5229\u7279\u5c14\uff08Richard Little\uff09\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u4eec\u4e5f\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u5747\u52bf\uff0c\u5b83\u6700\u5148\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u518d\u73b0\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u9762\u6bd4\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u6e90\u4e8e\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6784\u5efa\u4efb\u610f\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5efa\u6784\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u7531\u89c4\u8303\u3001\u5b9e\u8df5\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u914d\u7f6e\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u3002\u9738\u6743\u79e9\u5e8f\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6743\u529b\u8f6c\u79fb\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba(\u4ee5\u53ca\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba)\uff0c\u4f46\u5145\u5176\u91cf\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u6781\u5f31\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u91ca\u5bfc\u81f4\u56fd\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u5236\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5373\u56fd\u5bb6\u5236\u8861\u7684\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u884c\u5236\u8861\u7684\u3002\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u5f88\u5c11\u91c7\u53d6\u5236\u8861\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4f1a\u6311\u6218\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u53d8\u4f53\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u5236\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u4f1a\u6c47\u805a\u6210\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u65af\u8482\u82ac\u2022\u6c83\u5c14\u7279(Stephen Walt)\u7684\u8457\u540d\u8bba\u65ad\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5236\u8861\u7684\u662f\u5a01\u80c1\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u9738\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9762\u5bf9\u76f8\u4e92\u5236\u8861\u7684\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9762\u5bf9\u9488\u5bf9\u5176\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u5236\u8861\u3002\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u540c\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u4e8e\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u3001\u89c4\u8303\u6027\u6216\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5bfb\u6c42\u5236\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u53e6\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5c06\u5236\u8861\u6218\u7565\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u5176\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u56e2\u7ed3\u5f02\u8d28\u5316\u653f\u6cbb\u8054\u76df\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u4f46\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89e3\u91ca\u90fd\u56de\u907f\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u8282\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u5236\u8861\u7684\u6784\u6210\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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03<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4f55\u4e3a\u5236\u8861\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\u5f53\u4ee3\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u8457\u4f5c\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u6709\u7740\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u65bd\u97e6\u52d2<\/strong>\u5bf9\u5236\u8861\u6301\u4e00\u79cd\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u5236\u8861\u662f\u6307\u901a\u8fc7\u5185\u90e8\u52a8\u5458\u6216\u7ed3\u6210\u8054\u76df\u6765\u5efa\u7acb\u6216\u805a\u96c6\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\/\u5236\u6b62\u9886\u571f\u5360\u9886\u6216\u5916\u56fd\u52bf\u529b\u53ca\u8054\u76df\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002\u201d\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u5236\u8861\u53ea\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u6d89\u53ca\u67d0\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5f81\u670d\u201d\u3002\u6c83\u5c14\u798f\u65af\u3001\u8003\u592b\u66fc\u53ca\u5229\u7279\u5c14<\/strong>\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u4e8c\u5143\u5236\u8861\u548c\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5236\u8861\uff08<\/strong>dyadic and systemic orientations of balancing<\/strong>\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5a01\u6151\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u9632\u6b62\u9738\u6743\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u6216\u524a\u5f31\u9738\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4fdd\u7f57\u548c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u4f69\u666e<\/strong>(Robert Pape)<\/strong>\u53cd\u5bf9\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5bf9\u5236\u8861\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u5236\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u76ee\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u524a\u5f31\u6216\u6297\u8861\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u56fd\u6216\u6709\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u884c\u4e3a\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6218\u7565\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u4fdd\u7f57\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5236\u8861\uff1a\u786c<\/strong>\u5236\u8861<\/strong>\u3001\u8f6f<\/strong>\u5236\u8861<\/strong>\u548c\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0<\/strong>\u5236\u8861\u3002<\/strong>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u5236\u8861\u662f\u6307\u56fd\u5bb6\u52aa\u529b\u201c\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u904f\u5236\u6765\u81ea\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5229\u7528\u5e38\u89c4\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u95f4\u63a5\u5a01\u80c1\u201d\uff0c\u8fd8\u6d89\u53ca\u201c\u6b21\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u53ca\u652f\u6301\u5b83\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u7528\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u7b49\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u624b\u6bb5\u6311\u6218\u548c\u524a\u5f31\u5b88\u6210\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u201d\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e73\u8861\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u5d1b\u8d77\u56fd\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\u6216\u8fbe\u6210\u6709\u9650\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8c05\u89e3\u65f6\uff0c\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6c83\u5c14\u798f\u65af\u3001\u8003\u592b\u66fc\u548c\u5229\u7279\u5c14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c06\u5236\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u8bd5\u56fe\u589e\u5f3a\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8428\u6258\u5229\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u6982\u5ff5\u9519\u6784\u201d\uff08concept misformation\uff09\u6216\u201c\u6982\u5ff5\u5ef6\u5c55\u201d\uff08concept stretching\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9488\u5bf9\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5c06\u66f4\u5bbd\u6cdb\u7684\u5236\u8861\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e0e\u5f3a\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5f53\u5236\u8861\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u6784\u5efa\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u6743\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u7ade\u4e89\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4ea7\u751f\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u5236\u8861\u9650\u5236\u5728\u5176\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4e2d\u5e94\u5f53\u5305\u542b\u975e\u519b\u4e8b\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u5236\u8861\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u5e94\u8be5\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65e8\u5728\u7ea0\u6b63\u5b89\u5168\u8d64\u5b57\uff08<\/strong>security deficit<\/strong>\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e86\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u800c\u6700\u5927\u5316\u6743\u529b\u3002<\/strong>\u5982\u679c\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u4e3a\u4e86\u51cf\u5c11\u81ea\u8eab\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u538b\u8feb\u4e0b\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u6216\u524a\u5f31\u5a01\u80c1\u8005\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u65f6\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u5f3a\u81ea\u8eab\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u96c6\u4e2d\u81ea\u8eab\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u5b9e\u65bd\u5236\u8861\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4fbf\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u7531\u6392\u9664\u975e\u519b\u4e8b\u7684\uff08\u5236\u8861\uff09\u6218\u7565\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u6743\u529b\u2014\u2014\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u8ba9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u505a\u5176\u4e0d\u613f\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u9650\u5236\u6027\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e0b\u2014\u2014\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c06\u975e\u519b\u4e8b\u624b\u6bb5\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u5185\u7684\u7406\u7531\u5c31\u66f4\u52a0\u5145\u5206\u4e86\u3002\u63a2\u8ba8\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u4e3a\u4f55\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u5236\u8861\u548c\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u5236\u8861\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5236\u8861\u5f62\u5f0f\u5f97\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8003\u8651\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u800c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\u6982\u5ff5\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5bf9\u786c\u5236\u8861\u4e0e\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\u7684\u533a\u5206\uff0c\u5c06\u4e09\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5236\u8861\u65b9\u5f0f\u6df7\u4e3a\u4e00\u8c08\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u5236\u8861\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5236\u8861\u6982\u5ff5\u4e2d\u6240\u89c4\u5b9a\u7684\uff08\u65b9\u5f0f\uff09\u76f8\u53bb\u751a\u8fdc\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u516c\u5f00\u9488\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u5b89\u5168\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u4f5c\u4e3a\u51cf\u5c11\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u4f9d\u8d56\u519b\u4e8b\u52a8\u5458\u3001\u5efa\u7acb\u8054\u76df\u6216\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u52aa\u529b\u51cf\u5c11\u76f4\u63a5\u6d89\u53ca\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u6743\u529b\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff08\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u5192\u9669\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff09\u505a\u51fa\u6218\u7565\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u786c\u5236\u8861\u548c\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\u7684\u533a\u5206\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u660e\u663e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u5e94\u533a\u5206\u786c\u5236\u8861\u548c\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u5305\u62ec\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u4e3a\u51cf\u5c11\u5b89\u5168\u8d64\u5b57\u800c\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u653f\u7b56\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u4e5f\u5e94\u6ce8\u610f\u6743\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u4f53\u63cf\u7ed8\u51fa\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5236\u8861\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u8bb8\u591a\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5236\u8861\u5f62\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u53ca\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u519b\u4e8b\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5206\u800c\u5236\u8861\uff08<\/strong>Divide-and-balance<\/strong>\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u7b56\u7565\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u76f4\u63a5\u9488\u5bf9\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u8fdb\u884c\u96c6\u4f53\u52a8\u5458\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u7ea0\u6b63\u5b89\u5168\u8d64\u5b57\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u4e00\u822c\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u5206\u800c\u5236\u8861\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u8bf4\u670d\u67d0\u4e2a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff08\u6216\u6f5c\u5728\u76df\u53cb\uff09\u8131\u79bb\u5408\u4f5c\u534f\u8bae\u3001\u4fdd\u6301\u4e2d\u7acb\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6539\u53d8\u6548\u5fe0\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9f13\u52b1\u5236\u8861\u76ee\u6807\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u6d3e\u7cfb\u53cd\u5bf9\u5176\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\uff09\u6743\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u79ef\u6781\u62b5\u5236\u5176\u9886\u5bfc\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u5236\u8861\uff08<\/strong>Proxy balancing<\/strong>\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u5236\u8861\u662f\u6307\u4e3a\u9650\u5236\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6295\u5c04\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u7ea0\u6b63\u5730\u533a\u6743\u529b\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u800c\u5411\u7b2c\u4e09\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6b66\u5668\u88c5\u5907\u7684\u5236\u8861\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u5236\u8861\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u5236\u8861\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5236\u8861\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5236\u8861\u8005\u6240\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u884c\u52a8\u5c31\u662f\u5411\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u51fa\u552e\u6b66\u5668\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u7269\u54c1\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u7269\u5b9e\u73b0\u5236\u8861\uff08<\/strong>Balancing through public goods substitution<\/strong>\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bfb\u6c42\u52a0\u5f3a\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\uff08political autonomy\uff09\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u524a\u5f31\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u67d0\u533a\u57df\u6216\u95ee\u9898\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u51fa\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u76df\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u516c\u5171\u7269\u54c1\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u7269\u3002\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u7269\u54c1\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u7269\u6765\u91c7\u53d6\u5206\u800c\u5236\u8861\u7684\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u533a\u5206\u4e24\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4f01\u56fe\u76f4\u63a5\u5206\u88c2\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u5236\u8861\u6218\u7565\uff08balancing strategies\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u8bbe\u6cd5\u51cf\u5c11\u5176\u5236\u8861\u76ee\u6807\u5728\u67d0\u5730\u533a\u6216\u67d0\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u9886\u57df\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u540e\u8005\u624d\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u6b64\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b9e\u73b0\u5236\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6346\u7ed1\uff08Binding\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6346\u7ed1\u653f\u7b56\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5206\u800c\u5236\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u53cd\u9762\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u8bd5\u56fe\u5728\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u534f\u8bae\u6216\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e2d\u9650\u5236\u6216\u7ea6\u675f\u88ab\u5236\u8861\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u5b83\u4eec\u6267\u884c\u81ea\u4e3b\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u53cd\u5bf9\u5c06\u5236\u8861\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u7f3a\u4e4f\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u4e0b\u3002\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6279\u8bc4\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u5982\u4f55\u533a\u5206\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u5236\u8861\u4e0e\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u5236\u8861\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u533a\u5206\uff1a\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u548c\u610f\u56fe\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4e0e\u6743\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u519b\u4e8b\u7684\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u7684\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u2014\u2014\u53ea\u6709\u4e0e\u5176\u5904\u5883\u548c\u76ee\u6807\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u624d\u4f1a\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u5236\u8861\u3002\u800c\u5bf9\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u610f\u56fe\u505a\u51fa\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u662f\u5341\u5206\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u201c\u6709\u6548\u5730\u533a\u5206\u201d\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u201c\u5236\u8861\u4e0e\u5e38\u89c4\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u6469\u64e6\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u8f6f\u5236\u8861\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u662f\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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04<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\u672c\u6587\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u76844\u90e8\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e3a\u5c06\u5236\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u79bb\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u5236\u8861\u6709\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u63d0\u4f9b\u592a\u591a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u798f\u7279\u66fc\u3001\u4fdd\u7f57\u548c\u6c83\u5179\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\u7f3a\u4e4f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u5236\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u53ea\u8981\u7ed9\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u66f4\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u201d\u7684\u5ba3\u79f0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u518d\u5408\u9002\u3002\u5217\u7ef4\u548c\u83b1\u59c6\u514b\u5219\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5377\u4e2d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u91cd\u89c6\u9650\u5b9a\u8bcd\u201c\u901a\u5e38\u201d\uff08often\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u65bd\u97e6\u52d2\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u5c06\u7ed9\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u76f8\u5bf9\u6743\u529b\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ee5\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u666e\u904d\u8d8b\u52bf\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u3002\u800c\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u300b\u4e0e\u300a\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f62\u6210:\u6625\u79cb\u6218\u56fd\u4e0e\u8fd1\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u6b27\u6d32\u4e4b\u6bd4\u8f83\u300b\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u5386\u53f2\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u90fd\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u5236\u8861\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u9891\u7387\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u7528\u8bf4\u5176\u6709\u6548\u6027\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u5236\u8861\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u4ee3\u4ef7\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u52a8\u5458\uff08<\/strong>collective mobilization<\/strong>\uff09\u3002<\/strong>\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5fc5\u987b\u8bf4\u670d\u56fd\u5185\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\u727a\u7272\u8d22\u5bcc\u751a\u81f3\u751f\u547d\u6765\u634d\u536b\u5176\u7edf\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u5236\u8861\u8054\u76df\u7684\u6210\u5458\u5fc5\u987b\u7ba1\u7406\u76f8\u4e92\u731c\u7591\u548c\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\u4ee5\u91c7\u53d6\u8054\u5408\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u8ba9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u8499\u53d7\u635f\u5931\u3002\u800c\u5bfb\u6c42\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u4eba\u5f80\u5f80\u5904\u4e8e\u6709\u5229\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6469\u64e6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u4e86\u987a\u4ece\u6743\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u89c4\u8303\uff0c<\/strong>\u6216\u670d\u4ece\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u653f\u6cbb\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u6269\u5f20\u6216\u5df2\u7ecf\u786e\u7acb\u7684\u9738\u6743\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u4e0e\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6269\u5f20\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08<\/strong>expansionist states<\/strong>\uff09\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f18\u52bf\u5f88\u5c11\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u538b\u5012\u6027\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u884c\u653f\u7ba1\u7406\u6280\u672f\u201d\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5176\u83b7\u5f97\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u4f53\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6c72\u53d6\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u4eec\u514b\u670d\u4e0e\u9886\u571f\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u6269\u5f20\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u201c\u529b\u91cf\u68af\u5ea6\u635f\u5931\u201d\uff08\u201closs of strength gradient\u201d\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5236\u8861\u6027\u5747\u8861\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5f80\u5f80\u6765\u81ea\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u5916\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u5236\u8861\u4e0e\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u63a8\u65ad\u524d\u8005\u662f\u540e\u8005\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u663e\u7136\u662f\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u6d89\u53ca\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u524d\u73b0\u4ee3\u7279\u5f81<\/strong>\u3002\u7ed3\u6784\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56de\u5e94\u8bf4\uff0c\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8303\u56f4\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u7531\u4e3b\u6743\u9886\u571f\u539f\u5219\u6240\u5212\u5206\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8fa9\u62a4\u4e3a\u7ed3\u6784\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u7ed3\u6784\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u8981\u4e48\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u89c4\u8303\u3001\u8eab\u4efd\u8ba4\u540c\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u6d89\u53ca\u6784\u6210\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u90fd\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\uff1b\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e3a\u5f62\u6210\u53cd\u590d\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u5e26\u6765\u538b\u529b\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u6743\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d<\/strong>\u3002\u5916\u90e8\u52bf\u529b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u53c2\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u8054\u76df\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u60ef\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u6bd4\u533a\u57df\u5185\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u56de\u65cb\u4f59\u5730\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u533a\u57df\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5c06\u5916\u90e8\u52bf\u529b\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u50cf\u5176\u533a\u57df\u5185\u5bf9\u624b\u90a3\u6837\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5916\u90e8\u52bf\u529b\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u610f\u5473\u7740\u533a\u57df\u5747\u52bf\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5e73\u7a33\u8fd0\u884c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4f1a\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5206\u800c\u6cbb\u4e4b\u3001\u5404\u4e2a\u51fb\u7834\u7684\u6218\u7565\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u5747\u52bf\u673a\u5236\u5931\u7075\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5c06\u5747\u52bf\u673a\u5236\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u5931\u7075\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f31\u7248\u672c\u7684\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5e76\u65e0\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u5236\u8861\u538b\u529b\u5728\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5236\u8861\u6027\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u201c\u7406\u8bba\u671f\u671b\u6548\u4eff\u884c\u4e3a\u968f\u9738\u6743\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u589e\u52a0\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u903b\u8f91\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6392\u9664\uff081\uff09\u9738\u6743\u5bfb\u6c42\u56fd\u6240\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u901a\u8fc7\u6548\u4eff\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u6839\u690d\u4e8e\u5355\u5143\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u52a8\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6548\u4eff\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5904\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5236\u8861\u6982\u5ff5\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u5851\u9020\u4e86\u5747\u52bf\u673a\u5236\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u5177\u4f53\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u5982\u4f55\u7ed3\u5408\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u6765\u4ea7\u751f\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5236\u8861\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u5f31\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u5c06\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u5957\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u3001\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4f53\u7cfb\u6027\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7b80\u79f0\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u5f15\u8d77\u5bf9\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/strong>\u5747\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0e\u5bf9\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u666e\u904d\u627f\u8bfa\u96be\u4ee5\u533a\u5206\uff0c\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e1c\u897f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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05<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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