{"id":16835,"date":"2020-03-10T08:29:09","date_gmt":"2020-03-10T10:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/03\/10\/7af6d631de\/"},"modified":"2020-03-10T18:41:16","modified_gmt":"2020-03-10T10:41:16","slug":"7af6d631de","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/03\/10\/7af6d631de\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3011\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\uff1a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u89c6\u89d2 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c348\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Luke J. Keele\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u662f\u5e94\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u533b\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3010<\/span><\/strong>\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u5170\u661f\u8fb0\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u7f16\u8bd1\u5458\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\uff09<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6392\u7248\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u6881\u946b\u6631<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Keele, L. (2015). The statistics of causal inference: A view from political methodology. Political Analysis, 23<\/em>(3), 313-335.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u6790\u300b\uff08Political Analysis<\/em>\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5b9a\u91cf\u548c\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\uff09\u9886\u57df\u5177\u6709\u539f\u521b\u6027\u5e76\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u8fdb\u5c55\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u534f\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u4f1a\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u7531\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\uff0c2018\u5e74\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a2.548\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u7f16\u8f91\u4e3a\u7f8e\u5229\u575a\u5927\u5b66\uff08American University\uff09\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u8363\u8a89\u6559\u6388Jeff Gill\u3002\uff08\u6765\u6e90: https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/political-analysis\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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The statistics of causal inference: A view from political methodology<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Luke J. Keele<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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        \u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u6587\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u6bd4\u8f83\u591a\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u5728\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u6574\u7406\u4e86\u8bd1\u6587\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u672f\u8bed\u7684\u4e2d\u6587\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002<\/p>\n

Causal inference \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff1bIdentification\u8bc6\u522b\uff1btreatment\u5904\u7406\uff1bpotential outcome\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c; stable unit treatment value assumption\uff08SUTVA\uff09\u7a33\u5b9a\u5355\u4f4d\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u5047\u8bbe; average treatment effect\uff08ATE\uff09\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff1baverage treatment effect on the treated\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94; conditional independence assumpation\uff08CIA\uff09\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u5b9a; conditional independence exchangeability\uff08CIE\uff09\u6761\u4ef6\u53ef\u4ea4\u6362\u6027\u5047\u8bbe; randomized experiments\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c; natural experiments\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff1bselection on observables\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u9009\u62e9; partial identification\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u8bc6\u522b; the design-based approach\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8def\u5f84; reducing heterogeneity\u51cf\u5c11\u5f02\u8d28\u6027; falsification tests\u626d\u66f2\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c; sensitivity analysis\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790; pattern specificity\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b; Rubin Causal Model(RCM)\u9c81\u5bbe\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b; Directed Acyclic Graphs(DAG)\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe<\/p>\n


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        \u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u53c2\u4e0e\u5bf9\u4eba\u6743\u9547\u538b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u5373\u6c11\u4e3b\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u9547\u538b\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u9a6c\u4e0a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u9700\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u5b83\u771f\u7684\u4f1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u9547\u538b\u5417\uff1f\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u76f8\u5173\u800c\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u5efa\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4e86\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u4e00\u822c\u6307\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9020\u6210\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u6027\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5219\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u9648\u8ff0\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u56e0\u679c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u5173\u6ce8\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6bd4\u5982\u91cd\u529b\u3002\u91cd\u529b\u603b\u662f\u8ba9\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u7269\u4f53\u4e0b\u843d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5b83\u662f\u9020\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5728\u751f\u7269\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u5076\u7136\u7684\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cRobin\u7b49\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u5f88\u6709\u7528\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e00\u8d77\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u4e4b\u524d\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6218\u4e89\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u9648\u8ff0\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4f1a\u968f\u4e4b\u5230\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u57fa\u4e8e\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u7528\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u505a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e4b\u524d\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u7528\u6570\u636e\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u56e0\u679c\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\uff0c\u5bf9\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u601d\u8003\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8def\u5f84\u975e\u5e38\u6d41\u884c\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5305\u62ec\u6211\u5728\u5185\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u8fdb\u6b65\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6539\u53d8\u73b0\u5b58\u7edf\u8ba1\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\uff1f\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8def\u5f84\u786e\u5b9e\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u80fd\u591f\u53cd\u6620\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u7279\u522b\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u66f4\u52a0\u660e\u786e\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5b83\u91cd\u65b0\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u201d\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u57fa\u672c\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u4f30\u8ba1\u524d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u80fd\u591f\u88ab\u5ba1\u614e\u5730\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u53bb\u652f\u6301\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5c31\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u672c\u6587\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u5212\u5206\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4e25\u683c\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n


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\u4e8c\u3001\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u77e5\u8bc6<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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        \u8bc6\u522b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6309\u7167\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u65e0\u9650\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\u5c31\u662f\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u96be\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5373\u4f7f\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u91cf\u65e0\u9650\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u80fd\u591f\u77e5\u9053\u53c2\u6570\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8bc6\u522b\u96be\u9898\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u751f\u6001\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u53ea\u77e5\u9053\u8fb9\u7f18\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u5408\uff08\u6df7\u5408\uff09\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u3002\u53c8\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u57fa\u4e8e\u805a\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u6295\u7968\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u9009\u6c11\u60c5\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u8bc6\u522b\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f3a\u5931\u503c\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u672c\u6587\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/strong>\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u8bc6\u522b\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ea\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5047\u8bbe<\/strong>\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc6\u522b\u5206\u6790\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u65e0\u9650\u7684\u6837\u672c\u8ba1\u7b97\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u5b58\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u5206\u6790\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc6\u522b\u3002\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6<\/strong>\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u9c81\u5bbe\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff08RCM\uff09\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u8bc6\u522b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u7528\u548c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u5728\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4f46\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5c06\u5904\u7406D\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d6\u503c\u4e3a0\u548c1\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u662fYiD\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7ed3\u679c\u662fYi= DiYi1+(1-Di)Yi0\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4f53\u8981\u4e48\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u5904\u7406\u8981\u4e48\u6ca1\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u5dee\u503cYi1-Yi0\u6216\u8005\u6bd4\u503cYi1\/Yi0\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49Di\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u5c42\u6b21\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u5373\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u5355\u4f4d\u5c42\u6b21\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u6ca1\u6709\u4f9d\u8d56\u4efb\u4f55\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u4f46\u5374\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u5373\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u5355\u4f4d\u5c42\u6b21\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5173\u6ce8\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>ATE=E[Yi1-Yi0]\u6216\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\u5373ATT= E[Yi1-Yi0|Di = 1]\u3002\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5904\u7406\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe<\/strong>\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u8bc1\u660e<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\"\u3010\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3011\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\uff1a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u89c6\u89d2<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

        \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u671f\u671b\u7b49\u4e8e\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u671f\u671b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u52a0\u4e0a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5355\u5143\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u5047\u8bbe\uff08SUTVA\uff09\u6210\u7acb\u5373\u5904\u7406\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5df2\u77e5\u4e14\u660e\u786e\uff08\u4e0d\u80fd\u6a21\u7cca\uff09\u4e14\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u53d7\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94ATE\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u901a\u5e38\u6709\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5bb9\u6613\u5bf9\u8bc6\u522b\u9020\u6210\u5a01\u80c1<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\"\u3010\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3011\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\uff1a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u89c6\u89d2<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

        \u5728\u5de6\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba4\u4e3aD\u662fY \u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0aD\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8eY\uff0cD\u548cY\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u662f\u7531L\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6df7\u6742\uff08confounding\uff09<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u5728\u53f3\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53D\u548cY\u90fd\u6761\u4ef6\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u6548\u5e94L\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5f80\u5f80\u79f0\u4e3a\u9009\u62e9\uff08selection\uff09<\/strong>\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5373\u4f7f\u5904\u7406\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u4ea7\u51fa\u4e14\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u88ab\u6392\u9664\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\uff08\u90e8\u5206\u6587\u732e\u7279\u522b\u662f\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4e5f\u901a\u5e38\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u7528confounding\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\uff09<\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e09\u3001\u8bc6\u522b\u7b56\u7565<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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        \u8bc6\u522b\u7b56\u7565\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\u5c31\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u8bc6\u522b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u672c\u6587\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u516b\u79cd\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong>\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u662f\u8bc6\u522b\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u5728SUTVA\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4f18\u52bf\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u4eba\u4e3a\u5730\u4f7f\u5f97\u5904\u7406\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u4ea7\u51fa\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u80fd\u591f\u88ab\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6700\u5927\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e07\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5b83\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u4e2a\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u670d\u4ece\u5904\u7406\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong>\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4eff\u4f5b\u662f\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6bd4\u8f83\u7a00\u5c11\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4e14\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4ed4\u7ec6\u5224\u65ad\u4ed6\u4eec\u8003\u5bdf\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0cLyall\uff082009\uff09\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u662f\u5426\u65e0\u5dee\u522b\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u53cd\u53db\u8005\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u519b\u961f\u5bf9\u8f66\u81e3\u7684\u70ae\u51fb\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u70ae\u51fb\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u65e0\u5dee\u522b\u7684\u800c\u4e14\u4eff\u4f5b\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u786e\u5b9e\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u5c31\u50cf\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u91cc\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5904\u7406\uff08\u88ab\u70ae\u51fb\uff09\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u524d\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56f0\u96be\u5728\u4e8e\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u786e\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u70ae\u51fb\u6a21\u5f0f\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u70ae\u51fb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u77e5\u9053\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5728\u8f66\u81e3\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4f1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u548c\u6548\u5ea6\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5ba1\u614e\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e09\u79cd\u662f\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff08IV\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ea\u901a\u8fc7\u9f13\u52b1\u90e8\u5206\u4e2a\u4f53\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u88ab\u9f13\u52b1\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u88ab\u9f13\u52b1\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\uff08Intention-to-treat\uff09\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u9f13\u52b1\u4e0b\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u9f13\u52b1\u53c2\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u4f9d\u4ece\u8005(complier)\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u6216\u5c40\u90e8\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u4f9d\u4ece\u8005\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b50\u96c6\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5728\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e94\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff1bSUTVA\uff1b\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5373\u6392\u9664\u6027\u9650\u5236\uff1b\u5355\u8c03\u6027\uff1b\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u5904\u7406\u6709\u975e\u96f6\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\uff08\u5bf9IV\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u4e86\u89e3\u53ef\u4ee5\u9605\u8bfbAngrist\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u56db\u79cd\u662f\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff08RDD\uff09<\/strong>\u3002\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e00\u822c\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5904\u7406D\u8fd9\u4e00\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u534f\u53d8\u91cfS\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dS\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u63a8\u52a8\u53d8\u91cf\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5206\u6570\uff08score\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u6e05\u6670\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u662f\u5206\u6570\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u5c11\u4e8e\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u5206\u6570\u754c\u9650c\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u88ab\u5206\u914d\u5230\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u3002\u6240\u6709\u9ad8\u4e8ec\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u88ab\u5206\u914d\u5230\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\uff08\u5982c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u8003\u4e00\u672c\u5206\u6570\u7ebf\uff09\uff0c\u6a21\u7cca\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u662f\u5904\u7406\u7684\u5206\u914d\u662f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e8e\u5206\u6570\u7684\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u5728c\u9644\u8fd1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5728c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u3002RDD\u76ee\u524d\u7279\u522b\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e94\u79cd\u662f\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u9009\u62e9<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u8fd8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u53ef\u5ffd\u89c6\u6027\u6216\u8005\u65e0\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u7b49\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6700\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u627e\u5230\u5728\u6761\u4ef6\u4e8e\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f7f\u5f97\u5904\u7406\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u4ea7\u51fa\u72ec\u7acb\u3002\uff08\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u5b9a\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\uff08CIA\uff09\uff0c\u6761\u4ef6\u53ef\u4ea4\u6362\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\uff08CIE\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e2d\u901a\u5e38\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u5c31\u662f\u9690\u542b\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5206\u5c42\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u5b9a\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u5b9e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8c28\u614e\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u516d\u79cd\u662f\u5e26\u65f6\u95f4\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u9009\u62e9<\/strong>\u3002\u7b80\u8981\u6765\u8bf4\u5305\u62ec\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u5904\u7406\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6548\u5e94\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u53cc\u91cd\u6216\u4e09\u91cd\u5dee\u5206\u3001\uff08\u5e7f\u4e49\uff09\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e03\u79cd\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u8bc6\u522b<\/strong>\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u7cbe\u786e\u6d4b\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u5404\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u53ea\u80fd\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u53c2\u6570\u5904\u4e8e\u54ea\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u786e\u6d4b\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5e94\u7528\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u8003Mebane and Poast(2013)\u548cKeele and Minozzi(2012)\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u516b\u79cd\u662f\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u628a\u6574\u4e2a\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u8005\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6548\u5e94\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5904\u7406\u901a\u8fc7\u4e2d\u4ecb\u53d8\u91cfM\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u95f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u9996\u5148\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u6574\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u53bb\u5206\u79bb\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc6\u522b\u6574\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6548\u5e94\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n


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\u56db\u3001\u4ee5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u8def\u5f84<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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        \u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ee5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u8def\u5f84\u5f3a\u8c03\u8bbe\u8ba1\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u89c6\u51cf\u5c11\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3001\u9610\u660e\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u5173\u6ce8\u5185\u751f\u6027\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u4ee5\u548c\u8bc6\u522b\u7b56\u7565\u7ed3\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8bf4\u660e\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u89e3\u91ca\u4ee5\u53ca\u504f\u5dee\u3002\uff08\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\uff09<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5f02\u8d28\u6027<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u6311\u6218\u662f\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4ece\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4e2d\u5206\u79bb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u5904\u7406\u4e4b\u524d\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u7b49\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5904\u7406\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\u4f46\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5f80\u5f80\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u968f\u673a\u5316\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5c01\u9501\uff08blocking\uff09\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u4ece\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u5bf9\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u628a\u6837\u672c\u7f29\u51cf\u5230\u66f4\u5c0f\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u53ef\u6bd4\u7684\u5b50\u96c6\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u662f\u5426\u9a91\u6469\u6258\u8f66\u6234\u5934\u76d4\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u4e8b\u6545\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u628a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6837\u672c\u9650\u5236\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u6545\u65f6\u6469\u6258\u8f66\u4e0a\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e00\u4e2a\u6234\u5934\u76d4\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6234\u5934\u76d4\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6469\u6258\u8f66\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4f53\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u6545\u65f6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6234\u5934\u76d4\u7684\u53f8\u673a\u548c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u6545\u65f6\u6ca1\u5e26\u5934\u76d4\u7684\u53f8\u673a\u4ece\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u89c2\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6392\u9664\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6570\u636e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u51cf\u5c0f\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u4ece\u800c\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u7edf\u8ba1\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6c38\u8fdc\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u5728\u9996\u4f4d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5b58\u5728\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4e00\u6627\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7531\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u800c\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u626d\u66f2\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong>\u3002\u626d\u66f2\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u5b83\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u77e5\u9053\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u672c\u5e94\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\u672c\u5e94\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u8bc6\u522b\u7b56\u7565\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5206\u6790\u5403\u88ab\u7532\u57fa\u6c5e\u6c61\u67d3\u7684\u9c7c\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u67d3\u8272\u4f53\u635f\u4f24\u3002\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u5df2\u7ecf\u5403\u4e86\u88ab\u6c61\u67d3\u7684\u9c7c\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u641c\u96c6\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e0e\u5065\u5eb7\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e2a\u4f53\u662f\u5426\u6709\u54ee\u5598\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8bc1\u636e\u663e\u793a\u7532\u57fa\u6c5e\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u5bfc\u81f4\u54ee\u5598\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6837\u672c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7532\u57fa\u6c5e\u5bf9\u54ee\u5598\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bc1\u636e\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u7b56\u7565\u4e2d\uff0c\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bf4\u660e\u4f1a\u6709\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u672c\u5e94\u4e0d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u626d\u66f2\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e5f\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\uff0c\u626d\u66f2\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u65ad\u70b9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u524d\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u786e\u5b9e\u53d1\u73b0\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e00\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u6548\u5ea6\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e09\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u3002\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7528\u6765\u5ea6\u91cf\u8fdd\u53cd\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u5047\u5b9a\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u662f\u654f\u611f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5bf9\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5c31\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ed3\u8bba\u53d1\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c03\u6574\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u6c34\u5e73\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u662f\u5426\u6df7\u6742\u7684\u5c0f\u7684\u6216\u8005\u5927\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5c06\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u56db\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b<\/strong>\u3002\u5355\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u96be\u8bf4\u662f\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u8bc1\u660e\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u6765\u6392\u9664\u5176\u4ed6\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n


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\u4e94\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5de5\u5177<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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        \u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5e38\u7528\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u719f\u6089\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u5305\u62ec\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe<\/strong>\uff08Robin\u7684\u8fd1\u671f\u4e66\u7c4dcausal inference\u5bf9DAG\u56fe\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\uff09\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u56de\u5f52\u3001\u5339\u914d\u3001\u52a0\u6743\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong>\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e38\u89c4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8bd1\u6587\u4e0d\u518d\u8be6\u7ec6\u5c55\u5f00\u3002<\/p>\n


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\u516d\u3001\u8ba8\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\n
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\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb \u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011Luke J. Kee<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16836,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[22,31],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16835"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16835"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16844,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16835\/revisions\/16844"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}