{"id":16797,"date":"2020-03-04T11:00:50","date_gmt":"2020-03-05T01:57:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/03\/05\/824ea3e2dc\/"},"modified":"2020-03-05T09:57:07","modified_gmt":"2020-03-05T01:57:07","slug":"824ea3e2dc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/03\/04\/824ea3e2dc\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u540c\u76df\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e9a\u6d32\u540c\u76df\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u8d77\u6e90 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c344\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u8f66\u7ef4\u5fb7\uff08\u53c8\u8bd1\u4f5c\u7ef4\u514b\u6258\u00b7\u8f66\uff0cVictor Dong Cha\uff09\uff0c\u97e9\u88d4\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e54\u6cbb\u57ce\u5927\u5b66\u57c3\u5fb7\u8499\u00b7A\u00b7\u6c83\u5c14\u4ec0\u5916\u4e8b\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(CSIS)\u9ad8\u7ea7\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u97e9\u5173\u7cfb\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u534a\u5c9b\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u66fe\u51fa\u4efb\u767d\u5bab\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08NSC\uff09\u4e9a\u6d32\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u5728\u5c0f\u5e03\u4ec0\u6267\u653f\u671f\u95f4\u62c5\u4efb\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u987e\u95ee\u3002\u66fe\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u9a7b\u97e9\u5927\u4f7f\u7684\u63d0\u540d\u4eba\u9009\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u59da\u5bf0\u5b87\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u7f16\u8bd1\u5458\uff0c\u5c71\u4e1c\u5927\u5b66\u4e1c\u5317\u4e9a\u5b66\u9662\uff09<\/p>\n

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Cha, V. D. (2010). Powerplay: Origins of the US alliance system in Asia. International Security, 34<\/em>(3), 158-196.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u300b\uff08International Security\uff09\u4e8e1976\u5e74\u521b\u7acb\uff0c\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u9886\u57df\u7684\u9876\u7ea7\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u8bae\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u4ee5\u5b63\u520a\u5f62\u5f0f\u53d1\u884c\u3002\u7531\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u8d1d\u5c14\u5f17\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University\uff09\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff08MIT Press\uff09\u7ec4\u7ec7\u51fa\u7248\u3002\u6839\u636e2018 Journal Citation Reports\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a4.500\uff0c\u4f4d\u5217\u201c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u7c7b\u522b\u671f\u520a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Powerplay: Origins of the US alliance system in Asia<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Victor Dong Cha<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u540c\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ed3\u76df\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5efa\u7acb\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5374\u5c40\u9650\u4e8e\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5851\u9020\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76df\u56fd\u6218\u540e\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u8fd9\u7fa4\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u201c\u65e0\u8d56\u76df\u53cb\uff08rogue allies\uff09\u201d\u8eab\u4e0a\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u5373\u72c2\u70ed\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u4e8e\u7ef4\u62a4\u81ea\u8eab\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u7edf\u6cbb\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u60f3\u53c2\u4e0e\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u51c6\u5907\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e0e\u82cf\u8054\u5c55\u5f00\u65f7\u65e5\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u6597\u4e89\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5b89\u5168\u53cc\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4ea7\u7269\u3002<\/strong><\/section>\n
\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u6743\u529b\u4f7f\u7528\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u6240\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u8865\u5145\u4e86\u65f6\u4e0b\u6d41\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u7531\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6\u8005\uff08liberal institutionalists\uff09\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff08foreign policy internationalists\uff09\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u547d\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u591a\u8fb9\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u89c4\u5219\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u4e00\u56fd\u6743\u529b\u3001\u904f\u5236\u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u503e\u5411\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c06\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d4c\u5165\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u5236\u662f\u7ba1\u63a7\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u548c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u878d\u5165\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u6700\u660e\u667a\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u5141\u8bb8\u81ea\u8eab\u88ab\u5728\u5176\u534f\u52a9\u4e0b\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u5236\u6240\u7ea6\u675f\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u6743\u529b\u4e0e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u6700\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc1\u660e\u201c\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\uff08power asymmetries\uff09\u2018\u9009\u62e9\u2019\uff08select\uff09\u4e86\u53cc\u8fb9\u6216\u591a\u8fb9\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u6700\u5927\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6765\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u5c0f\u56fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u63a7\u5236\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u884c\u4e4b\u6709\u6548\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u5927\u56fd\u5bfb\u6c42\u63a7\u5236\u5c0f\u56fd\uff0c\u53cc\u8fb9\u540c\u76df\u66f4\u6613\u8fbe\u6210\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/strong><\/section>\n
\u5728\u6446\u51fa\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u4ecb\u7ecd\u540c\u76df\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u7684\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u968f\u540e\u4f5c\u8005\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u4e8c\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8bbe\u60f3\u548c\u6218\u7565\u5b9e\u8df5\u3002\u7136\u540e\u4f5c\u8005\u7528\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u675c\u9c81\u95e8\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u827e\u68ee\u8c6a\u5a01\u5c14\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u653f\u6743\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u5efa\u7acb\u53cc\u8fb9\u540c\u76df\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u53c8\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e8c\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u4e4b\u9645\u548c\u671d\u9c9c\u6218\u4e89\u671f\u95f4\u53cd\u5bf9\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u5efa\u7acb\u591a\u8fb9\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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The Puzzle\u2014Why No Asian NATO?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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20\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u5317\u7ea6\u768412\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c31\u7ec4\u5efa\u5171\u540c\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u6784\u3001\u4e00\u4f53\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u6307\u6325\u7ed3\u6784\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u66fe\u8ffd\u6c42\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5176\u5206\u522b\u4e8e1951\u5e74\u548c1954\u5e74\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5171\u540c\u9632\u536b\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08ANZUS\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u6761\u7ea6\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08SEATO\uff09\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u5317\u7ea6\u800c\u8a00\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8f83\u4e3a\u677e\u6563\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u62e9\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cc\u8fb9\u540c\u76df\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\uff08San Francisco system\uff09\u6216\u201c\u8f74\u8f90\u5f0f\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u201c\u8f74\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e4b\u95f4\u65e0\u660e\u663e\u5173\u8054\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u6761\u7ea6\u4e3a\u201c\u8f90\u201d\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53cc\u8fb9\u6761\u7ea6\u5305\u62ec1951\u5e749\u6708\u7b7e\u8ba2\u7684\u300a\u65e5\u7f8e\u5171\u540c\u9632\u5fa1\u63f4\u52a9\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u30011953\u5e7410\u6708\u7b7e\u7f72\u7684\u300a\u97e9\u7f8e\u5171\u540c\u9632\u5fa1\u6761\u7ea6\u300b\u548c1954\u5e7412\u6708\u7b7e\u8ba2\u7684\u300a\u7f8e\u53f0\u5171\u540c\u9632\u5fa1\u6761\u7ea6\u300b\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89e3\u91ca\u5305\u62ec\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u533a\u57df\u5185\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u4e92\u4fe1\u548c\u5171\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u7684\u7f3a\u5931\u3001\u79cd\u65cf\u5dee\u5f02\u3001\u533a\u57df\u5185\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u548c\u5a01\u80c1\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7b49\u3002\u968f\u540e\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0e\u7406\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4f55\u5728\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u91c7\u53d6\u53cc\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u8def\u5f84\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u6df7\u4e3a\u4e00\u8c08\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u5f0f\uff08\u5982\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u63d0\u9ad8\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u6269\u5927\u7b49\u7b49\uff09\u90a3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd8\u8981\u5728\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u8ffd\u6c42\u53cc\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u5462\uff1f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e8c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u3001<\/span>\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Powerplay<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u4ffe\u65af\u9ea6\u4e0e\u4e9a\u6d32<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bismarck and Asia<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6240\u6709\u7684\u540c\u76df\u90fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u5851\u9020\u5176\u6210\u5458\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f46\u76df\u53cb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6743\u529b\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5176\u5185\u90e8\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u5bb0\u76f8\u5965\u6258\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u4ffe\u65af\u9ea6\u66fe\u7ecf\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u540c\u76df\u662f\u9a6c\u548c\u9a91\u624b\u7684\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u9a91\u624b\uff08\u6ca1\u6709\u9a6c\uff09\u7684\u8054\u76df<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u540c\u76df\u662f\u65bd\u52a0\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u201d<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u5ff5\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u5f97\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u786e\u7acb\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b9e\u529b\u76f8\u4eff\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u6216\u591a\u8fb9\u76df\u53cb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u59a5\u534f\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u6765\u534f\u5546\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u540c\u76df\u5173\u7cfb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53cc\u8fb9\u8054\u76df\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u5de5\u5177\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u529b\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6210\u5458\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u597d\u5904\uff08\u5982\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u58f0\u671b\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b9e\u529b\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u5c31\u4eab\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/section>\n
\u53cc\u8fb9\u8054\u76df\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63a7\u5236\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u5f53\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u7684\u8bba\u65ad\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7ed3\u6784\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u6700\u597d\u7531\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u6b63\u5728\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5949\u884c\u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u90fd\u4e3b\u5f20\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u5236\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u7eb3\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u4e49\u52a1\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u4e49\u52a1\u5fc5\u987b\u670d\u4ece\u4e8e\u4f53\u5236\u5185\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u5458\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u8c01\u63a7\u5236\u8c01\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n

Who controls whom?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8c01\u63a7\u5236\u8c01\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0e\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u65bd\u52a0\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u9996\u9009\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5206\u60c5\u51b5\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u56fe1\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u6f5c\u5728\u60c5\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5206\u7c7b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f31\u56fd\u5bfb\u6c42\u63a7\u5236\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u56fd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u201c\u5c0f\u4eba\u56fd\u6218\u7565\uff08Lilliputian strategy\uff09\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u5c0f\u56fd\u901a\u8fc7\u7ec4\u5efa\u96c6\u4f53\u5bf9\u5927\u56fd\u6784\u6210\u7ea6\u675f\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u63a7\u5236\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\uff08\u89c1\u56fe1\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8c61\u9650\uff09\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4ee5\u540c\u76df\u56fd\u8eab\u4efd\u8fd8\u662f\u4ee5\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u6784\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u591a\u8fb9\u7ea6\u675f\uff08multilateral constraint\uff09\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u5927\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u7ea6\u675f\u3001\u963b\u6b62\u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u7ed9\u4e88\u5c0f\u56fd\u53d1\u8a00\u6743\u548c\u6295\u7968\u6743\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u5bfb\u6c42\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u63a7\u5236\uff08\u56fe1\uff0c\u7b2c\u56db\u8c61\u9650\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u8fb9\u63a7\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u4f9d\u65e7\u662f\u6700\u6709\u7528\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u53cc\u8fb9\u8054\u7cfb\u6765\u5bfb\u6c42\u63a7\u5236\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u9ad8\u6602\uff1b\u5b83\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u8c08\u5224\u548c\u59a5\u534f\u3002\u5c06\u76ee\u6807\u56fd\u5d4c\u5165\u591a\u8fb9\u540c\u76df\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u5bfb\u6c42\u63a7\u5236\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u8fd8\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e0e\u201c\u5c0f\u4eba\u56fd\u6218\u7565\u201d\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f31\u56fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u63a7\u5236\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f31\u56fd(\u56fe1\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u8c61\u9650)\uff0c\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f31\u56fd\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u72ec\u81ea\u65bd\u52a0\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/section>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5f3a\u56fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u63a7\u5236\u5f31\u56fd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53cc\u8fb9\u8054\u76df\u662f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff08\u56fe1\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u8c61\u9650)\u3002\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u6a21\u5f0f\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5927\u56fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0e\u76df\u53cb\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53cc\u8fb9\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4efb\u7531\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5728\u591a\u8fb9\u8bba\u575b\u4e2d\u88ab\u7a00\u91ca\u3002<\/strong>\u6b63\u5982\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u2022\u5361\u6839(Robert Kagan)\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u5b9e\u529b\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bfb\u6c42\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1b\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u907f\u5f00\u666e\u904d\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\"\u3010\u540c\u76df\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e9a\u6d32\u540c\u76df\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u8d77\u6e90<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf<\/strong><\/p>\n

Powerplay throughout history<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5728\u8fd1\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u53f2\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c1815\u5e74\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u7528\u4ee5\u66ff\u4ee3\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8054\u76df\u7684\u5965\u5730\u5229\u2014\u90a3\u4e0d\u52d2\u65af\u79d8\u5bc6\u540c\u76df\uff08secret 1815 Austro-Neapolitan alliance\uff09\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5965\u5730\u5229\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u5730\u53cc\u8fb9\u63a7\u5236\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u5965\u5730\u5229\u5f97\u5230\u90a3\u4e0d\u52d2\u65af\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff1a\u6ca1\u6709\u5965\u5730\u5229\u7684\u8bb8\u53ef\uff0c\u90a3\u4e0d\u52d2\u65af\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u5965\u5730\u5229\u57281849\u20141850\u5e74\uff0c\u4e0e\u6258\u65af\u5361\u7eb3\uff08Tuscany\uff09\u3001\u6469\u5fb7\u7eb3\uff08Modena\uff09\u548c\u5e15\u5c14\u9a6c\uff08Parma\uff09\u5206\u522b\u7b7e\u8ba2\u6761\u7ea6\uff0c\u4f7f\u5965\u5730\u5229\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u30021866\u5e74\uff0c\u666e\u9c81\u58eb\u4e0e\u5df4\u4f10\u5229\u4e9a\uff08Bavaria\uff09\u3001\u7b26\u817e\u5821\uff08W\u00fcrttemberg\uff09\u548c\u5df4\u767b\uff08Baden\uff09\u7ed3\u76df\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u524a\u5f31\u4ffe\u65af\u9ea6\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5357\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u8054\u76df\uff08South German union\uff09\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u5f53\u4e16\u754c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d4c\u5165\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u5236\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u5176\u786c\u5b9e\u529b\u5e76\u5851\u9020\u5176\u504f\u597d\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u540c\u4e1c\u76df\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u53cc\u8fb9\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u53d1\u6325\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u5c0f\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u67b6\u6784\uff0c\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u7eb3\u4efb\u4f55\u66fe\u662f\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u6b96\u6c11\u8005\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u88ab\u7a00\u91ca\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u2022W\u2022\u5e03\u4ec0(George W. Bush)\u653f\u5e9c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u63a8\u884c\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u751a\u81f3\u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u5c0f\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u6ca1\u6709\u5355\u72ec\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e00\u8d77\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u7cbe\u5fc3\u6311\u9009\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u7d27\u5bc6\u7684\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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Origins of the U.S. Powerplay System in Asia<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Taiwan: Chaining Chiang<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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1949\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u539f\u672c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6253\u7b97\u653e\u5f03\u5bf9\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u653f\u6743\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u6539\u5929\u6362\u5730\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c1950\u5e746\u670825\u65e5\u671d\u9c9c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e3a\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u8fd9\u6781\u5927\u5730\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u8ba4\u77e5\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecb\u5165\u671d\u9c9c\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e1950\u5e747\u6708\u6d3e\u9063\u7b2c\u4e03\u8230\u961f\u9a76\u5165\u53f0\u6e7e\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u5b83\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e86\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u65b0\u9632\u5fa1\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u627f\u8bfa\u4e8e1954\u5e74\u6b63\u5f0f\u786e\u7acb\u3002\u5728\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u65b0\u76df\u53cb\u540e\uff0c\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u4e1d\u6beb\u4e0d\u63a9\u9970\u5176\u519b\u4e8b\u201c\u53cd\u653b\u5927\u9646\u201d\u7684\u91ce\u5fc3\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u7740\u624b\u843d\u5b9e\u5176\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u671d\u9c9c\u6218\u4e89\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\uff0c\u827e\u68ee\u8c6a\u5a01\u5c14\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u653f\u6743\u9488\u5bf9\u5927\u9646\u7684\u5355\u8fb9\u884c\u52a8\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6311\u8845\u884c\u4e3a\u65e5\u76ca\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5bf9\u201c\u53d7\u5176\u7275\u8fde\u201d\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u4e5f\u4e0e\u65e5\u4ff1\u589e\u3002\u57c3\u68ee\u8c6a\u5a01\u5c14\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cc\u91cd\u5a01\u6151\u56f0\u5883\uff1a\u4ed6\u5fc5\u987b\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u9707\u6151\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u53c8\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u848b\u653f\u6743\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5c06\u6b64\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\u8fdb\u653b\u5927\u9646\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u5185\u90e8\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0e\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u653f\u6743\u7ed3\u76df\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u53f0\u6e7e\u5f53\u5c40\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u653f\u6743\u7684\u9632\u536b\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0e\u5176\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u662f\u5206\u4e0d\u5f00\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/section>\n
\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u51c6\u5907\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\u5e94\u6025\u65b9\u6848\u4ee5\u9632\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u89e3\u653e\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u201c\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u201d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u8ba1\u5212\u4e2d\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u848b\u653f\u6743\u63d0\u4f9b\u540e\u52e4\u548c\u7269\u8d44\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u5927\u9646\u7684\u8fdb\u653b\u5e76\u975e\u7531\u848b\u6311\u8d77\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u3002<\/strong>\u5e94\u6025\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u51b7\u6218\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u53f0\u6d77\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u89e6\u5373\u53d1\u5f0f\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u7406\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e0c\u671b\u5229\u7528\u53cc\u8fb9\u540c\u76df\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u610f\u56fe\u624d\u80fd\u4f53\u4f1a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u7cbe\u5999\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e94\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\uff1a\u5236\u6b62\u674e\u627f\u665a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea: Rhee-straint<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u97e9\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u674e\u627f\u665a\u5728\u51761948\u5e74\u20141960\u5e74\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u4e2d\u6beb\u4e0d\u63a9\u9970\u5176\u901a\u8fc7\u6b66\u529b\u7edf\u4e00\u671d\u9c9c\u534a\u5c9b\u7684\u613f\u671b\u3002\u674e\u627f\u665a\u653f\u5e9c\u91c7\u53d6\u201c\u5317\u8fdb\u7edf\u4e00\u201d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u62d2\u7edd\u540c\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u5904\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u540c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u62c5\u5fc3\u53d7\u97e9\u56fd\u201c\u7275\u8fde\u201d\u800c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u53c2\u6218\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u60f3\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u5927\u52a8\u5e72\u6208\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u62c5\u5fc3\u674e\u627f\u665a\u9c81\u83bd\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u97e9\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u57ae\u53f0\u5e76\u89e6\u53d1\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\uff0c\u7f8e\u97e9\u540c\u76df\u4e5f\u5c31\u6709\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u529f\u80fd\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u540c\u76df\u662f\u73af\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5305\u56f4\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u5927\u6218\u7565\u4e2d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u540c\u76df\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u540c\u76df\u5c06\u963b\u6b62\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u4e8c\u6b21\u8fdb\u653b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u9762\u90e8\u961f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u7eca\u7f51\uff08tripwire\uff09\u201d\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ecb\u5165\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u62c5\u4fdd\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u540c\u76df\u5c06\u5236\u6b62\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u5192\u9669\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/strong><\/section>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u9488\u5bf9\u97e9\u56fd\u4e5f\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u5e94\u6025\u65b9\u6848\u2014\u2014\u4f5c\u6218\u6307\u6325\u6743\u3002<\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6863\u6848\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u827e\u68ee\u8c6a\u5a01\u5c14\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6b32\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u5f3a\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u97e9\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u5728\u671d\u9c9c\u534a\u5c9b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6307\u6325\u6743\u3002\u671d\u9c9c\u6218\u4e89\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u674e\u627f\u665a\u66fe\u5c06\u97e9\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u6307\u6325\u6743\u6388\u4e88\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u519b\uff08\u5373\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7b7e\u7f72\u5171\u540c\u9632\u5fa1\u6761\u7ea6\u540e\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7b7e\u8ba2\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u5ef6\u7eed\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b89\u6392\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e25\u91cd\u635f\u5bb3\u4e00\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fc3\u8fdb\u8054\u5408\u4f5c\u6218\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u963b\u6b62\u97e9\u56fd\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u91c7\u53d6\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u7684\u5355\u8fb9\u884c\u52a8\u30021953\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u660e\u786e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u97e9\u56fd\u5355\u65b9\u9762\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6216\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u519b\u961f\u53d1\u8d77\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff081\uff09\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u519b\u53f8\u4ee4\u90e8\u7684\u5730\u9762\u3001\u6d77\u4e0a\u548c\u7a7a\u4e2d\u529b\u91cf\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u5730\u652f\u6301\u6b64\u7c7b\u884c\u52a8\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u4efb\u4f55\u519b\u4e8b\u6216\u540e\u52e4\u652f\u52a9\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u6240\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63f4\u52a9\u5c06\u7acb\u5373\u505c\u6b62\uff1b\uff084\uff09\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u519b\u6307\u6325\u5b98\u5c06\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u5176\u90e8\u961f\u5377\u5165\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u5e76\u4fdd\u969c\u90e8\u961f\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u57c3\u68ee\u8c6a\u5a01\u5c14\u66fe\u5766\u7387\u7684\u8868\u793a\u5982\u679c\u97e9\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u5355\u8fb9\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u5305\u62ec\u91c7\u53d6\u79d8\u5bc6\u884c\u52a8\u9664\u6389\u674e\u627f\u665a\u3001\u6276\u690d\u65b0\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6216\u8005\u76f4\u63a5\u5c06\u97e9\u56fd\u4ece\u540c\u76df\u4e2d\u5254\u9664\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u97e9\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u65e2\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u540c\u76df\u7275\u5236\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5a01\u6151\u548c\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6307\u4ee4\u6027\u5b89\u6392\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u591a\u8fb9\u540c\u76df\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u5f97\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u97e9\u53cc\u8fb9\u540c\u76df\u6240\u72ec\u6709\u7684\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e8c\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5176\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u4e9a\u6d32\u8ffd\u6c42\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u5728\u897f\u6b27\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u6b27\u6d32\u591a\u8fb9\u9632\u5fa1\u519b\u961f\uff08multilateral European Defense Force\uff09\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u5fb7\u519b\u7684\u91cd\u6574\uff0c\u610f\u56fe\u5408\u529b\u5236\u8861\u82cf\u8054\u5728\u4e2d\u6b27\u7684\u52bf\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3e\u63aa\u4f7f\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u80fd\u591f\u7f29\u51cf\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u9a7b\u519b\uff0c\u4ec5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u897f\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c06\u63d0\u4f9b\u6838\u5fc3\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u6218\u540e\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u4e5f\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u8fd8\u662f\u62d2\u7edd\u4e86\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u63d0\u51fa\u6709\u5173\u7ec4\u5efa\u4e9a\u6d32\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u30021949\u5e74\u5317\u7ea6\u6210\u7acb\u540e\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u5730\u533a\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ec4\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u516c\u7ea6\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u591a\u6b21\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u51fa\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u53cd\u5bf9\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u7528\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\u53f2\u6599\u548c\u89e3\u5bc6\u6587\u6863\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u68b3\u7406\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u201c\u9ad8\u538b\u653f\u7b56\u201d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u867d\u7136\u503e\u5411\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u5e76\u5728\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u5374\u662f\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5916\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53cd\u5bf9\u5728\u4e1c\u4e9a\u63a8\u884c\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u65e0\u8d56\u76df\u53cb\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7275\u8fde\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e03\u3001\u8d62\u53d6\u65e5\u672c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The Logic of Powerplay and Bilateralism: Investing in the \u201cHub\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5916\u4ea4\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd1951\u5e74\u5021\u8bae\u7684\u300a\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u516c\u7ea6\uff08the Pacific Ocean pact\uff09\u300b\u4e3a\u7531\uff0c\u5bf9\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u9a73\u3002\u4f46\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u53f2\u5b9e\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u516c\u7ea6\u7684\u63d0\u8bae\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e0e\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u6b64\u5916\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u516c\u7ea6\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53c8\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u5168\u6587\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u6709\u5173\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a2\u7a76\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/section>\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u6218\u540e\u5728\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u9ad8\u538b\u653b\u52bf\u6218\u7565\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u63a2\u7a76\u8fd9\u79cd\u63a7\u5236\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f1a\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/strong>\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u68b3\u7406\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u51b3\u5b9a\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u533a\u57df\u5230\u5e95\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u53d6\u591a\u8fb9\u6a21\u5f0f\u8fd8\u662f\u53cc\u8fb9\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u53cc\u8fb9\u6218\u7565\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u76df\u4e3b\u80fd\u5426\u901a\u8fc7\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u6216\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u652f\u6301\u6765\u65bd\u52a0\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u8fd9\u53c8\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230(1)\u653f\u6743\u7c7b\u578b\u3001(2)\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u6216(3)\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u8c08\u5224\u7b49\u4e09\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u8054\u76df\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u8054\u76df\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u5927\u6837\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f3a\u5927\u548c\u5f31\u5c0f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u76df\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5f3a\u56fd\u53d1\u6325\u65bd\u52a0\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\u5176\u6c11\u4e3b\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u548c\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5f31\u56fd\u4ece\u540c\u76df\u4e2d\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f3a\u56fd\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u529b\u5c31\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5927\u56fd\u80fd\u5426\u6210\u529f\u8fdb\u884c\u63a7\u5236\u4e5f\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u540c\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u590d\u6742\u591a\u53d8\u7684\u4ea4\u6d89\u4e0e\u6743\u8861\u3002<\/section>\n
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