{"id":16675,"date":"2020-02-23T10:00:50","date_gmt":"2020-02-23T10:44:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/02\/23\/f63882877e\/"},"modified":"2020-02-23T18:44:33","modified_gmt":"2020-02-23T10:44:33","slug":"f63882877e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/02\/23\/f63882877e\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"bpp-post-content\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/8-1582454671.jpeg\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin: 0px 0% -10px;transform: rotateY(180deg);-webkit-transform: rotateY(180deg);-moz-transform: rotateY(180deg);-o-transform: rotateY(180deg);box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 40%;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/0-1582454671.png\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: left;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 60%;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/8-1582454671.png\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: left;margin: 10px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 60%;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/1-1582454671.png\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: left;margin: 40px 0% 10px;transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/6-1582454671.png\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(163, 13, 13);padding: 4px 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u671f\u520a\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 50%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/5-1582454672.png\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(191, 191, 191);background: rgb(191, 191, 191) none repeat scroll 0% 0%;border-radius: 6px;overflow-wrap: break-word;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 5px -5px -5px 5px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(191, 191, 191);border-radius: 6px;background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);overflow-wrap: break-word;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"padding: 1.5em 1em 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);overflow-wrap: break-word;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(8, 0, 0);\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u300b\uff08International Security\uff09\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u9886\u57df\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u8bae\u7684\u9876\u7ea7\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u5176\u520a\u53d1\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e3b\u9898\u5e7f\u6cdb\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u7b49\u4f20\u7edf\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u7b49\u65f6\u65b0\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8bae\u9898\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5b83\u6210\u7acb\u4e8e1976\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u8d1d\u5c14\u5f17\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University\uff09\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff08MIT Press\uff09\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u56db\u671f\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">2018\u5e74\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a4.500\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u7c7b\u522b\u768485\u79cd\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(163, 13, 13);padding: 4px 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u672c\u671f\u7f16\u59d4<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(191, 191, 191);background: rgb(191, 191, 191) none repeat scroll 0% 0%;border-radius: 6px;overflow-wrap: break-word;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 5px -5px -5px 5px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(191, 191, 191);border-radius: 6px;background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);overflow-wrap: break-word;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"padding: 1.5em 1em 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);overflow-wrap: break-word;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(8, 0, 0);\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/strong>\u738b\u5ddd \u624e\u897f\u65fa\u59c6 \u8bb8\u6587\u5a77 \u8d75\u96f7<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/strong>\u5d14\u5b87\u6db5<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011<\/strong>\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u6392\u7248\u3011<\/strong>\u6768\u6d0b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/4-1582454672.jpeg\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(163, 13, 13);padding: 4px 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;\">\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u672c\u671f\u76ee\u5f55<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 15px;border-width: 0px 3px;border-radius: 10px;border-style: none solid;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62) rgb(199, 32, 18);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(8, 0, 0);line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">1. Conceal or Reveal? Managing Clandestine Military Capabilities in Peacetime Competition<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u9690\u85cf\u8fd8\u662f\u63ed\u793a\uff1f<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u5728\u548c\u5e73\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4e2d\u7ba1\u7406\u79d8\u5bc6\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">2. Deterring Wartime Atrocities: Hard Lessons from the Yugoslav Tribunal<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u5236\u6b62\u6218\u65f6\u66b4\u884c\uff1a<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u524d\u5357\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u5ead\u7684\u60e8\u75db\u6559\u8bad<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">3. Who Killed D\u00e9tente? The Superpowers and the Cold War in the Middle East, 1969\u201377<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u8c01\u627c\u6740\u4e86\u7f13\u548c\uff1f<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u548c\u51b7\u6218\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\uff1a1969-1977<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">4. Presidents, Politics, and Military Strategy: Electoral Constraints during the Iraq War<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u603b\u7edf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u6218\u7565\uff1a<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ea6\u675f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 15%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url('http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/0-1582454673.png');box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 7px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">1.<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 85%;border-bottom: 3px double rgb(199, 32, 18);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"color: rgb(8, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u9690\u85cf\u8fd8\u662f\u63ed\u793a\uff1f\u5728\u548c\u5e73\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4e2d\u7ba1\u7406\u79d8\u5bc6\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b<strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(8, 0, 0);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong>Conceal or Reveal? Managing Clandestine Military Capabilities in Peacetime Competition<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong>Brendan Rittenhouse Green\uff0c\u8f9b\u8f9b\u90a3\u63d0\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\uff1b<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Austin Long\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u5408\u53c2\u8c0b\u90e8\u6218\u7565\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u90e8\u6838\u653f\u7b56\u987e\u95ee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u6458\u8981\u3011<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u679c\u6df1\u53d7\u5747\u52bf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e9b\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u4f9d\u8d56\u4fdd\u5bc6\u624d\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u79d8\u5bc6\u80fd\u529b\u201d\uff08clandestine capabilities\uff09\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5c06\u519b\u4e8b\u4f18\u52bf\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u6536\u76ca\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5982\u679c\uff08\u5df1\u65b9\u7684\uff09\u79d8\u5bc6\u80fd\u529b\u88ab\u63ed\u793a\uff0c\u5bf9\u624b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u524a\u5f31\u8fd9\u4e9b\u79d8\u5bc6\u80fd\u529b\uff08\u7ed9\u5df1\u65b9\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80fd\u529b\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u63ed\u793a\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5bf9\u624b\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5747\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4e4b\u65e0\u52a8\u4e8e\u8877\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5927\u591a\u6570\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7ed3\u8bba\u503c\u5f97\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u957f\u671f\u548c\u5e73\u65f6\u671f\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u8868\u660e\uff08\u79d8\u5bc6\u80fd\u529b\uff09\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5229\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8868\u660e\u5176\u79d8\u5bc6\u80fd\u529b\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6027\u548c\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u9884\u671f\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5bf9\u51b7\u6218\u6218\u7565\u53cd\u6f5c\u6218\uff08strategic antisubmarine warfare\uff09\u7684\u6269\u5c55\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\uff08extended case study\uff09\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">International political outcomes are deeply shaped by the balance of power, but some military capabilities rely on secrecy to be effective. These \u201cclandestine capabilities\u201d pose problems for converting military advantages into political gains. If clandestine capabilities are revealed, adversaries may be able to take steps that attenuate the advantages they are supposed to provide. On the other hand, if these capabilities are not revealed, then adversaries will be unaware of, and unimpressed by, the real balance of power. Most of the existing literature emphasizes that states have few incentives to signal their clandestine capabilities. This conclusion deserves qualification: the condition of long-term peacetime competition can make signaling a profitable decision. Within this context, two important variables help determine whether a state will signal or conceal its secret capabilities: the uniqueness of the capability and the anticipated responsiveness of the adversary. An extended case study of Cold War strategic antisubmarine warfare confirms these predictions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/strong>\u738b\u5ddd<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/strong>\u5d14\u5b87\u6db5<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011<\/strong>\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 15%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url('http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/0-1582454673.png');box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 7px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">2.<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 85%;border-bottom: 3px double rgb(199, 32, 18);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"color: rgb(8, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 2px 0px 2px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;\">\u904f\u5236\u6218\u65f6\u66b4\u884c\uff1a\u524d\u5357\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u5ead\u7684\u60e8\u75db\u6559\u8bad<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(8, 0, 0);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong>Deterring Wartime Atrocities: Hard Lessons from the Yugoslav Tribunal<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong>Jacqueline R. McAllister\uff0c\u51ef\u5c3c\u6069\u5b66\u9662\uff08Kenyon College\uff09\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5176\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\u662f\u5426\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f55\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u9488\u5bf9\u5e73\u6c11\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5979\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u4e8e\u8377\u5170\u3001\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\u3001\u6ce2\u65af\u5c3c\u4e9a-\u9ed1\u585e\u54e5\u7ef4\u90a3\u3001\u79d1\u7d22\u6c83\u3001\u585e\u5c14\u7ef4\u4e9a\u548c\u9a6c\u5176\u987f\u7b49\u5730\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u6863\u6848\u548c\u91c7\u8bbf\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u6458\u8981\u3011<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u6218\u65f6\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\uff08international criminal tribunals\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0ICTs\uff09\u7684\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6cd5\u5ead\u80fd\u591f\u904f\u5236\u6218\u6597\u4eba\u5458\u5bf9\u5e73\u6c11\u7684\u66b4\u884c\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u7136\u800c\u9996\u4e2a\u6218\u65f6\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\u2014\u2014\u524d\u5357\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u95ee\u9898\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\uff08the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0ICTY\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0\u201c\u524d\u5357\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u5ead\u201d\uff09\u2014\u2014\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u6210\u7acb25\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5728\u904f\u5236\u6b64\u7c7b\u66b4\u884c\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4ecd\u9887\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u72af\u7f6a\u5b66\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u53ca\u5173\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u5f8b\u5408\u89c4\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e, \u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u5e76\u5b58\u65f6\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u904f\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u519b\u961f\u5bf9\u5e73\u6c11\u72af\u4e0b\u66b4\u884c\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\uff081\uff09\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\u5b98\u5458\u5df2\u83b7\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u516c\u8bc9\u652f\u6301\uff0c\uff082\uff09\u6218\u6597\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4f9d\u9760\u81ea\u7531\u9009\u533a\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\uff083\uff09\u6218\u6597\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5177\u6709\u96c6\u4e2d\u5316\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u672c\u6587\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u524d\u5357\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u5ead\u5bf9\u5357\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u768414\u4e2a\u6218\u6597\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u9000\u4f0d\u519b\u4eba\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u6570\u767e\u6b21\u5b9e\u5730\u91c7\u8bbf\uff0c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u524d\u5357\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u5ead\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e3a\u5f53\u4ee3\u6218\u65f6\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u5ead\u2014\u2014\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u9662\uff08International Criminal Court\uff09\u2014\u2014\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f55\u65f6\u80fd\u591f\u6210\u529f\u5730\u904f\u5236\u6218\u6597\u4eba\u5458\u5bf9\u5e73\u6c11\u7684\u66b4\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u542f\u793a\u3002<br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Advocates of wartime international criminal tribunals (ICTs) hope that such tribunals can deter combatant atrocities against civilians. Yet, more than twenty-five years after the establishment of the first wartime ICT\u2014the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)\u2014wartime ICTs\u2019 role in deterring such violence remains a matter of debate. Insights from criminology, as well as research on civil conflicts and international legal compliance, suggest that ICTs are most likely to deter government and rebel forces from committing atrocities against civilians when all three of the following conditions are present: (1) ICT officials have secured sufficient prosecutorial support, (2) combatant groups rely on support from liberal constituencies, and (3) combatant groups have centralized structures. Case studies of the ICTY&#8217;s impact on fourteen combatant groups from the Yugoslav conflicts\u2014combined with hundreds of field interviews with war veterans and others\u2014confirm this prediction. The ICTY&#8217;s record thus sheds important light on how and when contemporary wartime ICTs\u2014including the International Criminal Court\u2014might succeed in deterring combatant atrocities against civilians.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011\u624e\u897f\u65fa\u59c6<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011\u5d14\u5b87\u6db5<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 15%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url('http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/0-1582454673.png');box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 7px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">3.<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 85%;border-bottom: 3px double rgb(199, 32, 18);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"color: rgb(8, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u8c01\u627c\u6740\u4e86\u7f13\u548c\uff1f\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u548c\u51b7\u6218\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\uff1a1969-1977<strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(8, 0, 0);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong>Who Killed D\u00e9tente? The Superpowers and the Cold War in the Middle East, 1969\u201377<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong>Galen Jackson\uff0c\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\u5b66\u9662\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u6458\u8981\u3011<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u6709\u5173\u7f8e\u82cf\u95f420\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u7f13\u548c\uff08D\u00e9tente\uff09\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u89e3\u91ca\u5f3a\u8c03\u82cf\u8054\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u4e86\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u5177\u5408\u4f5c\u6027\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u800c\u6401\u7f6e\u5176\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u8bb8\u591a\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u82cf\u8054\u5bf9\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u89e3\u7684\u62d2\u65a5\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u5c24\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u636e\u8bf4\u82cf\u8054\u65b9\u9762\u5df2\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u9488\u5bf9\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7684\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4f46\u6839\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bba\u8ff0\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u7ad9\u5f97\u4f4f\u811a\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u6b63\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u82cf\u8054\u5f53\u65f6\u8feb\u5207\u5730\u60f3\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u4efd\u963f\u4ee5\u534f\u8bae\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4f46\u662f\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u548c\u6770\u62c9\u5c14\u5fb7\u00b7\u798f\u7279\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u5bf9\u4e0e\u82cf\u8054\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u4e0d\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u4e4b\u9010\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u5bf9\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u7ec4\u5b66\u672f\u4e89\u8bba\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4e00\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7acb\u5927\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5728\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u4ea4\u53e0\u7684\u8bae\u9898\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u3001\u671d\u9c9c\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7b49\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e89\u8bae \u3002<br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Standard explanations for the demise of U.S.-Soviet d\u00e9tente during the 1970s emphasize the Soviet Union\u2019s inability to put aside its communist ideology for the sake of a more cooperative relationship with the United States. Soviet resistance to reaching a stable accommodation during this period, many analysts maintain, was especially evident in the Middle East, where Moscow is said to have embraced the \u201cradical Arab program\u201d vis-\u00e0-vis Israel. Such accounts do not fare well, however, in light of the historical evidence. Instead, that evidence indicates that the Soviet Union was eager to cooperate with the United States to achieve an Arab-Israeli agreement. The Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford administrations, however, were not interested in working with the Soviets in the Middle East, and instead sought to expel them from the region. These findings have important implications for scholarly debates about whether great power rivals can cooperate on issues where their strategic interests are overlapping, as well as for contemporary debates over U.S. policy toward countries such as China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011\u8bb8\u6587\u5a77<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011\u5d14\u5b87\u6db5<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 15%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url('http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/0-1582454673.png');box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 7px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">4.<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 85%;border-bottom: 3px double rgb(199, 32, 18);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"color: rgb(8, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u603b\u7edf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u6218\u7565:\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ea6\u675f<strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(8, 0, 0);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong>Presidents, Politics, and Military Strategy: Electoral Constraints during the Iraq War<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong>Andrew Payne\uff0c\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7cfb\u8d6b\u5fb7\u5229\u00b7\u5e03\u5c14\uff08Hedley Bull\uff09\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u5458<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\u3010\u6458\u8981\u3011<\/strong><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5728\u6218\u65f6\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u653f\u6cbb\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff08\u519b\u961f\uff09\u603b\u53f8\u4ee4\u548c\u6c11\u9009\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6218\u7565\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u8981\u5e73\u8861\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u538b\u529b\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f55\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u51b3\u7b56\u4ecd\u4e0d\u660e\u6670\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4ece\u6c11\u4e3b\u95ee\u8d23\u5236\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u4e24\u79cd\u7ea6\u675f\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63a8\u8fdf\u505a\u51fa\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u8fc7\u5927\u9009\u4e3e\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u6291\u5236\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u603b\u7edf\u6de1\u5316\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u654f\u611f\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u9884\u671f\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5728\uff08\u672c\u6587\uff09\u5bf9\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u540e\u534a\u671f\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u89e3\u5bc6\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u9ad8\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u5458\u548c\u519b\u65b9\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7W\u00b7\u5e03\u4ec02007\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u5175\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5df4\u62c9\u514b\u2022\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c2011\u5e74\u7684\u64a4\u519b\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6218\u65f6\u51b3\u5b9a\u53d7\u5230\u76f8\u5173\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u65e5\u7a0b\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u9009\u4e3e\u5468\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u6218\u65f6\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5fae\u5999\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">How do electoral politics affect presidential decisionmaking in war? As both commander in chief and elected officeholder, presidents must inevitably balance competing objectives of the national interest and political survival when assessing alternative military strategies in war. Yet, how and when electoral pressures influence decisionmaking during an ongoing conflict remains unclear. Drawn from the logic of democratic accountability, two mechanisms of constraint may be inferred. First, presidents may delay making decisions that are perceived to carry excessive electoral risk. Second, electoral pressures may have a dampening effect, causing presidents to water down politically sensitive courses of action to minimize any expected backlash. Recently declassified documents and interviews with senior administration officials and military figures illustrate these mechanisms in a case study of decisionmaking during the second half of the Iraq War. Both George W. Bush\u2019s surge decision of 2007 and Barack Obama\u2019s decision to withdraw troops in 2011 are shown to have been profoundly influenced by concerns related to the domestic political calendar. These findings call for further study of the nuanced ways in which the electoral cycle shapes wartime decisionmaking.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011\u8d75\u96f7<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011\u5d14\u5b87\u6db5<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;visibility: visible;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/8-1582454672.jpeg\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;\"><br style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;\"><img     style=\"vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;\" src=\"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/4-1582454673.gif\" alt=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\" title=\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c21\u671f | International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2019\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u671f\u520a\u7b80\u4ecb \u300a\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u300b\uff08Internat<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[36,34],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16675"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16675"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16675\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16687,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16675\/revisions\/16687"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}