{"id":16635,"date":"2020-02-20T11:00:50","date_gmt":"2020-02-20T11:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/02\/20\/d17c43be6d\/"},"modified":"2020-02-20T19:03:35","modified_gmt":"2020-02-20T11:03:35","slug":"d17c43be6d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/02\/20\/d17c43be6d\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u6218\u4e89\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6743\u8861\uff1a\u91cd\u65b0\u68c0\u89c6\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\uff5c\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c335\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u5a01\u5ec9<\/span><\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u53f2\u5bbe\u62c9<\/span><\/span>\uff08William Spaniel\uff09\uff0c\u5339\u5179\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u5dde\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1b\u827e\u4e3d\u65af\u00b7\u9a6c\u4f26\uff08Iris Malone\uff09\uff0c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u535a\u58eb\u751f\uff0c\u5176<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u7740\u91cd\u8003\u5bdf<\/span>\u975e\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u4f53<\/span>\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4ea4\u6c47\u70b9<\/span><\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011<\/span><\/strong>William Spaniel, Iris Malone, The Uncertainty Trade-off: Reexamining Opportunity Costs and War. <\/span>International Studies Quarterly, Volume 63,<\/em> Issue 4, December 2019, Pages 1025\u20131034, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/isq\/sqz050.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u5b63\u520a\u300b\uff08<\/span><\/span>International Studies Quarterly<\/span><\/em>\uff0cIS<\/span>Q<\/span>\uff09\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u534f\u4f1a\u7684\u65d7\u8230\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u53d1\u8868\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>\u4e0e<\/span>\u7406\u8bba\u6027\u3001\u5b9e\u8bc1\u6027\u3001\u89c4\u8303\u6027\u4e3b\u9898\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u9886\u5148\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u679c<\/span><\/span>\u30022019\u5e74<\/span>\u8be5\u671f\u520a\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a<\/span>2.172<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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The Uncertainty Trade-off: Reexamining Opportunity Costs and War<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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Fearon 1995\uff1bOneal and Russett 2001\uff1bPolachek and Xiang 2010<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u65e0\u8bba\u5bf9\u624b\u6218\u6597\u51b3\u5fc3\u662f\u5426\u575a\u5b9a\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u6240\u5dee\u65e0\u51e0\u65f6\uff0c\u5ba3\u6218\u56fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u5bf9\u5bf9\u624b\u6218\u6597\u51b3\u5fc3\u8fdb\u884c\u7504\u522b\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u8fdb\u884c\u7504\u522b\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6d89\u9669\u5ba3\u6218\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bc4\u4f30\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5bf9\u624b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u51fa\u66f4\u5177\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002\u968f\u7740\u62e5\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u4f5c\u6218\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u5bf9\u624b\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u52a0\u5927\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5ba3\u6218\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u5347\u5bf9\u654c\u65b9\u8fdb\u884c\u7504\u522b\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u6bd4\u589e\u52a0\u6218\u4e89\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u5728\u672c\u6587\u6240\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6548\u5e94\u652f\u914d\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u6548\u5e94\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\u9759\u6001\u5206\u6790\uff08<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u4e0b\u6587\u4e2d\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u6848\u4f8b\u5206<\/span><\/span>\u6790\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee51949\u5e74\u81f32007\u5e74\u95f4\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u4e3a\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u51b3\u7b56\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u5c55\u793a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u5ea6\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u5982\u4f55\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u6982\u7387\u4ea7\u751f\u7275\u5236\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u533a\u5206\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e00\u3001\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6311\u6218<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u4ea4\u6613\uff08\u5982\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u6216\u8005\u5916\u56fd\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u548c\u5e73\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u4e3a\u666e\u904d\uff08<\/span><\/span>Keohane and Nye 1977\uff1b<\/span>Polachek 1980\uff1b<\/span>Rosecrance 1986\uff1b<\/span>Gowa and Mansfield 1993\uff1b<\/span>Oneal and Russett 2001<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u903b\u8f91\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8d38\u6613\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u6218\u4e89\u5371\u673a\u4ecd\u5728\u5347\u7ea7\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c<\/span>19<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u5230<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4eec\u5c06\u8d38\u6613\u89c6\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u6218\u4e89\u9057\u4ea7\u7684\u4e00\u5242\u89e3\u836f\uff08<\/span>Blainey 1988<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>18-34<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6838\u5fc3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\uff0c\u4f46<\/span><\/span>\u4ecd<\/span><\/span>\u65e0\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u7206\u53d1\uff08Copeland 1996\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u8005\u66fe\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613<\/span><\/span>\u2014<\/span>\u51b2\u7a81\u5448\u53cd\u6bd4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5047\u8bbe\u63d0\u51fa\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u8bba\u76f8\u6096\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u53d7\u5230\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u5f53\u91cd\u65b0\u68c0\u89c6\u57fa\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\uff0c\u5efa\u6a21\u89c4\u8303\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u5730\u6539\u53d8\u5e76\u6311\u6218\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u5141\u8bb8\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u8bbe\u7f6e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u590d\u539f\u4e86\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u4e0e\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u975e\u5355\u8c03<\/span><\/span>\u6027<\/span><\/span>\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/span>\uff08<\/span>Beck and Baum 2000\uff1b<\/span>Xiang 2010<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u8bba\u8bc1\u8d38\u6613\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\u5bf9\u51b2\u7a81\u4ea7\u751f<\/span><\/span>\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u53cc\u91cd\u4f5c\u7528\u8fdb\u884c\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u5916<\/span><\/span>\u90e8\u6027\uff08Gowa and Mansfield 1993\uff1b<\/span>Copeland 1996\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u589e\u52a0\u76df\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5f80\u6765\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u9632\u5fa1\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u65b9\u9762\u76f8\u4e92\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/span>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4e5f\u4f1a\u52a0\u5267\u654c\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173<\/span>\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u62c5\u5fc3\u51fa\u53e3\u5c06\u589e\u5f3a\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7834\u574f\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u5ba3\u6218\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u654c\u65b9\u613f\u610f\u6218\u6597\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08<\/span>Morrow 1999<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u6982\u7387\u7684\u975e\u5355\u8c03<\/span><\/span>\u6027<\/span><\/span>\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u4ece\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613<\/span><\/span>\u2014<\/span>\u51b2\u7a81\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\u52a0\u4ee5\u8fdb\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e0e\u603b\u4f53\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u4e0e\u7f14\u7ea6\u65b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5206\u79bb\u3002<\/span>\u4e0e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u732e\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u90fd\u4ece\u65b0\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u76ca\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\uff08Gowa and Mansfield 1993\uff1b<\/span>Morrow\uff0cSiverson\uff0cand Tabares 1998\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u4f46\u4f5c\u8005\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5229\u76ca\u5185\u5316\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u5192\u9669\u7684\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86<\/span>\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5371\u673a\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4f5c\u6218\u51b3\u5fc3\u672a\u5b9a\u4e4b\u65f6\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/span>\u5728\u4e0b\u6587\u4e2d\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e<\/span>Polachek\u548c<\/span>Xiang<\/span>\uff08<\/span>2010<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u957f\u5bf9\u51b2\u7a81\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53<\/span><\/span>\u6218\u4e89<\/span><\/span>\u6210\u672c\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u5e94\u8be5\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5c06\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff08<\/span><\/span>Fey and Ramsay 2011<\/span><\/strong>\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u7684<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u4ece\u5bf9<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6218\u4e89<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6210\u672c\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5bf9\u65b9\u5904\u4e8e\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u65f6\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u4ef7\u503c\uff08\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5e38\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\uff09\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u51b3\u5fc3\u5f71\u54cd\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u5c06\u4ea4\u6218\u7684<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6218\u4e89<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6240\u83b7\u5229\u76ca\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e86\u6709\u6096\u4e8e\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5373\u968f\u7740\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6982\u7387<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u6548\u5e94\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7cbe\u786e\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fdb\u6b65\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u5c06\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7ec6\u5206\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u6218\u4e89<\/span><\/span>\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u51b3\u5fc3\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7efc\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5efa\u6784\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u63cf\u8ff0\uff08\u5982\u56fe<\/span>1\uff09\uff1a\u5b9e<\/span><\/span>\u7ebf\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u76f4\u63a5\u964d\u4f4e\u51b2\u7a81\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u865a\u7ebf\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4f5c\u6218\u51b3\u5fc3<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u95f4\u63a5\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5f53\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5c0f\u4e8e\u95f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u589e\u52a0\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

\"\u3010\u6218\u4e89\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6743\u8861\uff1a\u91cd\u65b0\u68c0\u89c6\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\uff5c\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n

\uff08\u56fe<\/span>1\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e8c\u3001\u5bf9\u8c08\u5224\u3001\u4f5c\u6218\u51b3\u5fc3\u548c\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u5efa\u6a21<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8282\u4e2d\u4f5c\u8005\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u5bf9\u5bf9\u65b9\u4f5c\u6218\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u76f4\u89c2\u8868\u73b0\u589e\u52a0\u7504\u522b\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u63d0\u9ad8\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u4e2a\u547d\u9898\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u547d\u9898<\/span>1\uff1a\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>A<\/span>\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u4e0e<\/span>B<\/span>\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u6bd4\u8d85\u8fc7<\/span>A<\/span>\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u4e0e<\/span>B<\/span>\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u4e4b\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e14<\/span>B<\/span>\u56fd\u5177\u6709\u575a\u5b9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u51b3\u5fc3\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6982\u7387\u968f\u7740\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u7a0d\u6709\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u547d\u9898<\/span>2<\/span>\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u89c4\u6a21\u8db3\u591f\u5927\uff0c\u5219\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u957f\u4f1a\u7a0d\u7a0d\u964d\u4f4e\u6218\u4e89\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u6218\u4e89\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6743\u8861\uff1a\u91cd\u65b0\u68c0\u89c6\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\uff5c\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/section>\n
\uff08\u56fe<\/span>2\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u56fe<\/span>2\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u7ef4\u6301\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u7740\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u89c4\u6a21\u8db3\u591f\u5c0f\uff0c<\/span>A<\/span>\u56fd\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u7ef4\u6301\u548c\u5e73\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u575a\u5b9a\u6218\u4e89\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u5206\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u5f53\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u8fbe\u5230\u03c6<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/sub>\u65f6\uff0c\u6700\u4e0d\u5177\u575a\u5b9a\u6218\u4e89\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u4e3a\u5b89\u629a\u6218\u4e89\u51b3\u5fc3\u6700\u4e3a\u575a\u5b9a\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u6240\u9700\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e<\/span>A\u56fd\u613f\u610f\u6d89\u9669\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u5728\u03c6<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/sub>\u5230<\/span>\u03c6<\/span>2<\/span><\/sub>\u95f4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u53cc\u65b9\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u6982\u7387\u76f8\u5e94\u5730\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5982\u547d\u9898<\/span>1\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5728<\/span>\u03c6<\/span>2<\/span><\/sub>\u5904\u5f00\u59cb\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u6301\u7eed\u5230<\/span>\u03c6<\/span>3<\/span><\/sub>\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5404\u65b9\u7686\u613f\u7ef4\u6301\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u8d38\u6613\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u548c\u5e73\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u5982\u547d\u9898<\/span>2\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u4e09\u3001\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\uff1a<\/span>1949\u20142007<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4ee51949\u20142007\u5e74\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u4e3a\u6848\u4f8b\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u4f55\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5404\u65b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u7565\u4e92\u52a8\u3002<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce81949\u20142007\u5e74\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u90fd\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/span>\u4f20\u7edf\u89c2\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e2d\u5370\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u672c\u5e94\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u6070<\/span>\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u672c\u6587\u4ee51949\u20142007\u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u6b64\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u5370\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e86\u51e0\u9879\u4e92\u60e0\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\uff0c\u52a0\u4e4b\u5370\u5ea6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6218\u4e89\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e24\u56fd\u95f4\u65b0\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u76ca\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e24\u56fd\u539f\u6709\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u672c\u6848\u4f8b\u7b26\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u805a\u7126\u4e00\u4e2a\u914d\u5bf9\u6837\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u5f71\u54cd\u51b2\u7a81\u6982\u7387\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u6052\u5b9a\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u662f\u8054\u76df\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e24\u6781\u6027\u7684\u5185\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\uff08Gowa and Mansfield 1993\uff1b<\/span>Morrow et al. 1998\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u4e24\u4e2a\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u901a\u4f46\u4e0d\u7ed3\u76df\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u89c4\u907f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u53ef\u5c06\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u6218\u4e89\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4f4e\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u519b\u4e8b\u4e89\u7aef\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u5448\u73b0\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5fc5\u987b\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e09\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5370\u4e24\u56fd\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u5185\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u5fc5\u987b\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span>1949\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u76f4\u52301954\u5e74\u4e24\u56fd\u8fbe\u6210\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\u540e\uff0c\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u76ca\u624d\u5f97\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u51b3\u5fc3\u672a\u5b9a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u5176\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u6bd4\u5fc5\u987b\u5927\u4e8e\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u4e0e\u5176\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u4e4b\u6bd4\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u9884\u8ba1\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u521d\u4f1a\u968f\u7740<\/span>\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6700\u7ec8\u9010\u6e10\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
20\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u5370\u4e24\u56fd\u5efa\u7acb\u7d27\u5bc6\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u524d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ef4\u62a4\u548c\u5e73\uff0c\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u603b\u7406\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5370\u85cf\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u9e70\u6d3e\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002<\/span>\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u5c11\u4f46\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5370\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5192\u9669\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u3002<\/span>\u9ad8\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4f7f\u5f97\u7504\u522b\u5bf9\u624b\u6218\u6597\u51b3\u5fc3\u662f\u5426\u575a\u5b9a\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e2d\u5370\u4e24\u56fd\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u5171\u540c\u8ffd\u6c42\u4f7f\u8fb9\u754c\u4e89\u7aef\u5f97\u4ee5\u6401\u7f6e\u3002<\/span>\u6218\u4e89\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u4f7f\u5f97\u8d38\u6613\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u6765\u8bf4\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u91cf\u5927\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\uff08\u5982\u547d\u98982\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff081949\u5e74\u20141954\u5e74\uff09\u7279\u5f81\uff1a<\/span>\u8d38\u6613\u5f80\u6765\u5c11\uff0c\u6781\u5c11\u6d89\u9669\u5ba3\u6218\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u548c\u5e73<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u5370\u8d38\u6613\u5f80\u6765\u8f83\u5c11\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u9762\u5bf9\u7740\u56fd\u5185\u597d\u6218\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5370\u5ea6\u62d2\u7edd\u6d89\u9669\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u6218\u3002<\/span>1947\u5e74\u5370\u5ea6\u8131\u79bb\u82f1\u56fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c1949\u5e74\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u3002<\/span>\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fbe\u6210\u5408\u4f5c\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span>1950\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u652f\u6301\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u8054\u5408\u56fd\uff0c\u516c\u5f00\u8c34\u8d23\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u5e76\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f00\u5c55\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u4e2d\u5370\u4e24\u56fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5efa\u4ea4\uff08Jetly 1979\uff0c11\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
1950\u5e7410\u67087\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u519b\u897f\u85cf\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u897f\u85cf\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5370\u5ea6\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7f13\u51b2\u5730\u5e26\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5c06\u6311\u6218\u9ea6\u514b\u9a6c\u6d2a\u7ebf\uff0c\u5360\u9886\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u85cf\u5357\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/span>\u5370\u5ea6\u8bae\u5458\u6566\u4fc3\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u4f5c\u51fa\u519b\u4e8b\u56de\u5e94\u3002<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u9762\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u529b\u6c42\u91c7\u53d6\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u91cd\u7533\u4e86\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u201c\u4fdd\u6301\u53cb\u597d\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u613f\u671b\u201d\uff08Jetly 1979\uff0c29\uff09\u3002<\/span>1951\u5e745\u6708\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u6b63\u5f0f\u7b7e\u7f72\u627f\u8ba4\u897f\u85cf\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6761\u7ea6\uff0c\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u5370\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5347\u7ea7\u897f\u85cf\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u9009\u62e9\u4fdd\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\u7684\u610f\u613f\u7b26\u5408\u547d\u98981\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span>\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d38\u6613\u635f\u5931\u800c\u9762\u4e34\u4e8c\u9636\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1b<\/span>1950\u5e74\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u989d\u4ec5\u4e3a610\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u6267\u653f\u524d\uff0c\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u989d\u4e0b\u964d\u4e8675%\uff08Barbieri\uff0cKeshk\uff0cand Pollins 2009\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u5341\u500d\uff0c\u519b\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u4e94\u500d\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u8ddd\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u8f93\u8d62\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u6218\u4e89\u4ed8\u51fa\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u4e0a\u9020\u6210\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/span>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u5949\u884c\u4e00\u79cd\u65e0\u8bba\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u51b3\u610f\u6218\u6597\u90fd\u53ef\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u8c28\u614e\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6709\u529b\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/span>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5f00\u56fd\u603b\u7406\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5c40\u52bf\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u82e5\u9009\u62e9\u7ad9\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5bf9\u7acb\u9762\u4f1a\u8d62\u5f97\u56fd\u9645\u58f0\u8a89\uff08Wolford 2007\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5374\u672a\u66fe\u505a\u6b64\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u666e\u904d\u652f\u6301\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u4e3a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5374\u5728\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u672a\u53d7\u7cbe\u82f1\u610f\u89c1\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/span>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u9884\u9632\u6027\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u672c\u6709\u6781\u5927\u52a8\u673a\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4f46\u9664\u4e86\u4fdd\u536b\u8fb9\u5883\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u5e38\u89c4\u6027\u9632\u5fa1\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u672a\u5b9e\u65bd\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\uff08New York Times 1950\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\uff081954\u5e74\u20141962\u5e74\uff09\u7279\u5f81\uff1a<\/span>\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u957f\u3001\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u52a0\u5267\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u5370\u51b2\u7a81\u672a\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u3002\u5728\u627f\u8ba4\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u897f\u85cf\u62e5\u6709\u4e3b\u6743\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u8bd5\u56fe\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba9\u6b65\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c<\/span><\/span>\u5efa\u7acb<\/span><\/span>\u4fe1\u4efb<\/span><\/span>\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u4e2d\u5370\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u53cc\u65b9\u4e8e1952\u5e74\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u591a\u4e2a\u5370\u4e2d\u53cb\u597d\u534f\u4f1a\uff0c1953\u5e7412\u6708\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u3002<\/span>\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e86\u56db\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u4e8e1954\u5e744\u670829\u65e5\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u300a\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u897f\u85cf\u5730\u65b9\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u901a\u5546\u548c\u4ea4\u901a\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\uff0c\u5728\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u8fb9\u5883\u5730\u533a\u901a\u5546\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8def\u7ebf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u6bd4\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6218\u4e89\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u3002<\/span>1954\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u5f0f\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u7b7e\u7f72\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u5f00\u59cb\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u4ee5\u201c\u5370\u5ea6\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eb2\u5982\u5144\u5f1f\u201d\u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u989d\u4ece1953\u5e74\u7684440\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u589e\u957f\u52301959\u5e74\u76843660\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7edd\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u8fbe831%\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u5c01\u95ed\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff08Anderson and Geiger 2010\uff0c129\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u8d38\u6613\u4f7f\u53cc\u65b9\u53d7\u76ca\u532a\u6d45\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u83b7\u76ca\u4e4b\u6bd4\u7387\u51e0\u4e4e\u5bf9\u7b49\u3002<\/span>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u4ecd\u7136\u6781\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u3002<\/span>\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u4e0e\u5370\u5ea6\u519b\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u4e4b\u6bd4\u4e3a5:1\u3002<\/span>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u5386\u7ecf\u671d\u9c9c\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u6d77\u5ce1\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4f5c\u6218\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e24\u56fd\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002<\/span>\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u4e4b\u6bd4\u5c0f\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u6bd4\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u5c06\u63d0\u5347\u7206\u53d1\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e0d\u4e45\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6709\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9a7b\u897f\u85cf\u90e8\u961f\u901a\u8fc7\u51bb\u7ed3\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u9a9a\u6270\u8d38\u6613\u5546\u3001\u8981\u6c42\u8d27\u5e01\u5151\u6362\u3001\u5236\u9020\u8d27\u7269\u8fd0\u8f93\u969c\u788d\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\u59a8\u788d\u8d38\u6613\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3a\u5370\u5ea6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u786e\u8ba4\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u5192\u7740\u635f\u5bb3\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u518d\u8bae\u65e7\u6709\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u4e89\u7aef\u3002<\/span>\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u548c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u3002<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5370\u5ea6\u77e5\u6653\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u4ece\u65b0\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u65e0\u6cd5\u5224\u65ad\u4e2d\u56fd\u5982\u4f55\u6743\u8861\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u4e0e\u8d8a\u5883\u4f5c\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
1959\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u897f\u85cf\u6b66\u88c5\u53db\u4e71\uff08The Tibetan Revolt\uff09\u7ed9\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7f13\u548c\u6216\u52a0\u5267\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u51b3\u5fc3\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span>\u53db\u4e71\u53d1\u751f\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u518d\u6b21\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u56fd\u64a4\u9664\u65b0\u7684\u8fb9\u5883\u9632\u5fa1\u5de5\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f7f\u8d38\u6613\u8def\u7ebf\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u4fdd\u6301\u8ddd\u79bb\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e00\u90e8\u7f72\u6e90\u4e8e\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span>\u5f53\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u6d3e\u9063\u519b\u961f\u5230\u5df4\u62c9\u970d\u63d0\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u5730\u533a\u62b5\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4fdd\u6301\u514b\u5236\uff0c\u5e73\u548c\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4f7f\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\u3002<\/span>\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f5c\u6218\u51b3\u5fc3\u4e0d\u575a\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
1962\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u7eed\u7b7e\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u843d\u7a7a\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u79cb\u5b63\u4e8e\u8fb9\u5883\u5730\u533a\u589e\u5175\u81f314\u4e07\u523015\u4e07\u3002<\/span>1962\u5e7410\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5411\u5370\u5ea6\u53d1\u8d77\u81ea\u536b\u53cd\u51fb\u4ee5\u7ed3\u675f\u8fb9\u754c\u5bf9\u5cd9\uff0c\u4e2d\u5370\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u3002<\/span>\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u8d8a\u5883\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f7f\u5370\u5ea6\u201c\u524d\u8fdb\u653f\u7b56\u201d\uff08Forward Policy\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u9a76\u5411\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\uff081984\u5e74\u20142007\u5e74\uff09\u7279\u5f81\uff1a<\/span>\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u7a33\u5b9a<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u6700\u540e\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4f30\u503c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/span>\u4ece\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc7\u5927\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ecd\u6709\u4e8c\u9636\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5370\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5192\u9669\u56e0\u8d38\u6613\u800c\u62db\u81f4\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/span>\u57281984\u5e74\u62c9\u5409\u592b\u00b7\u7518\u5730\uff08Rajiv Gandhi\uff09\u5c31\u4efb\u5370\u5ea6\u603b\u7406\u65f6\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u548c\u89e3\u548c\u91cd\u542f\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u5f80\u6765\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\uff08Andersen and Geiger 2010\uff0c132\uff09\u3002<\/span>1992\u5e747\u6708\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u8fb9\u5883\u8d38\u6613\u6b63\u5f0f\u6062\u590d\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u603b\u989d\u8fbe\u5230\u4e862.7\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/span>\u52301995\u5e74\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u989d\u8d85\u8fc710\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/span>\u53cc\u65b9\u627f\u8bfa\u5171\u540c\u52aa\u529b\u5728\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u9879\u6c38\u4e45\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u6700\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u957f\u671f\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u603b\u4f53\u53cc\u8fb9\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\uff08Sandhu 2008\uff0c23\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u540c\u610f\u51cf\u5c11\u73b0\u4eca\u4e2d\u56fd\u85cf\u5357\u5730\u533a\uff08\u5370\u79f0\u201c\u963f\u9c81\u7eb3\u6070\u5c14\u90a6\u201d\uff09\u7684\u5175\u529b\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u4e4b\u540e\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u5370\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d38\u6613\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u52302005\u5e74\u8d38\u6613\u989d\u589e\u957f\u5230180\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5370\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\uff08Rusko and Sasikumar 2007\uff0c110\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u52302000\u5e74\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u5728\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u76ca\u592a\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6d89\u9669\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u5f0f\u6362\u53d6\u8fb9\u5883\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/span>\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u5370\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u201c\u80fd\u591f\u4f7f\u4e2d\u5370\u53cb\u597d\u5173\u7cfb\u5f97\u4ee5\u6062\u590d\u7684\u6700\u4e3a\u6709\u5229\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u575a\u5b9e\u57fa\u77f3\uff08Singh 2005\uff0c62\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u89c4\u6a21\u8db3\u591f\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u4f7f\u7504\u522b\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/span>2003\u5e74\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u540c\u610f\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e1962\u5e74\u4e2d\u5370\u6218\u4e89\u540e\u5c01\u9501\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u8d38\u6613\u53e3\u5cb8\u2014\u2014\u4e43\u5806\u62c9\uff08Nathu La\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u4ec0\u5e03\u5947\u5c71\u53e3\uff08Shipki La\uff09\u4e8e2006\u5e74\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u7686\u7b26\u5408\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff08Anderson and Geiger 2010, 136\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u4efb\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\u6311\u8d77\u8fb9\u754c\u4e89\u7aef\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece1947\u5e74\u52302007\u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u957f\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u610f\u613f\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5370\u5ea6\u57281954\u5e74\u30011956\u5e74\u548c1958\u5e74\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e86\u5bcc\u6709\u6210\u6548\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\uff0c\u672c\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6218\u4e89\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u5c3c\u8d6b\u9c81\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u5374\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f3a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5b58\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\uff08Blainey 1988\uff0c50\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u4e2d\u5370\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u7b26\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u6982\u7387\u5177\u6709\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u89c2\u70b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6218\u4e89<\/span><\/span>\u53d1\u751f<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd8\u9700\u5206\u6790\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u5728\u4f55\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u6210\u7acb\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u672c\u6587\u7ed3\u8bba\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u76f8\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u6587\u732e\u5177\u6709\u542f\u793a\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u53ef<\/span><\/span>\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u6838\u53cd\u51fb\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u6f5c\u5728\u6311\u6218\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\uff08Morgenthau 1961\uff0c280\uff1b<\/span>Gilpin 1983\uff0c213\u201419\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u8054\u76df\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u540c\u6837\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u52a0\u5165\u8054\u76df\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff08Morrow 1994\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u672c\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5e94\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e4b\u4e0b\u8ba4\u77e5\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e24\u56fd\u90fd\u62e5\u6709\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u6210\u672c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4f1a\u4f7f\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u66f4\u52a0\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u6709\u671b\u4e3a\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5a01\u6151\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u5f3a\u5236\u8c08\u5224\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b0\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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