{"id":16415,"date":"2020-02-10T14:22:35","date_gmt":"2020-02-10T14:56:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/02\/10\/86edc6bb1a\/"},"modified":"2020-02-10T22:56:42","modified_gmt":"2020-02-10T14:56:42","slug":"86edc6bb1a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/02\/10\/86edc6bb1a\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u5b66\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\u3011\u901a\u4fe1\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u6d4b\u91cf\uff5c\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c326\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u5b66\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\u3011\u901a\u4fe1\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u6d4b\u91cf\uff5c\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Caleb Pomeroy\u662f\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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Michael Beckley\u662f\u5854\u592b\u8328\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u3010\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pomeroy, C., & Beckley,M. (2019) Correspondence: Measuring Power in International Relations. InternationalSecurity, 44 (1), 197-200<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u300b\uff08<\/span>International Security\uff09\u6742\u5fd7\u5728<\/span>2018\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u53d1\u8868\u4e86<\/span>Michael Beckley\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u300b<\/span>\uff08<\/span>The Power of Nations:Measuring What Matters<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u751f<\/span>Caleb Pomeroy<\/span>\u5c31\u6b64\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u70b9\u5f02\u8bae\uff0c<\/span>Michael Beckley<\/span>\u5219\u4e88\u4ee5\u56de\u590d\u3002\u4e8c\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef6\u4e8e<\/span>2019<\/span>\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u520a\u767b\u5728\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\uff0c\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u4eca\u52a0\u4ee5\u8ffb\u8bd1\uff0c\u4ee5\u98e8\u8bfb\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Correspondence: Measuring Power in International Relations<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c<\/span>Beckley<\/strong>\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u590d\u5236\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span>Beckley\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u7528<\/span>GDP\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u66ff\u4ee3<\/span>CINC\u548c<\/span>GDP\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\uff0c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span>Beckley\u7528\u8d64\u6c60\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u51c6\u5219\uff08<\/span>Akaike information criterion, AIC\uff09\u5206\u522b\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86<\/span>CINC\u4e0e<\/span>GDP\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u3001<\/span>GDP\u4e0e<\/span>GDP\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e24\u4e24\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u3002<\/span>Pomeroy\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u8be5\u540c\u65f6\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1<\/span>24\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709<\/span>17\u9879\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>GDP\u4e58\u4ee5\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6307\u6807\u6d4b\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u6bd4\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>CINC\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6307\u6807\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6709<\/span>11\u9879\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>GDP\u4e58\u4ee5\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6307\u6807\u6d4b\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u6bd4\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>GDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6307\u6807\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u6709<\/strong><\/span>10<\/strong>\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u7684\u6307\u6807\u540c\u65f6\u4f18\u4e8e<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u548c<\/span>CINC<\/strong>\u6307\u6807<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u53ea\u6709\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9600\u503c\u624d\u80fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u6539\u8fdb\u9002\u5408\u5ea6\uff08\u5373<\/strong><\/span>AICs<\/strong>\u5dee\u989d\u8fbe\u5230<\/span>3<\/strong>\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728<\/span>6<\/strong>\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u540c\u65f6\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9\u4e00\u8981\u6c42<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u867d\u7136<\/span>24\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6837\u672c\u5bb9\u91cf\u504f\u5c0f\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86\u201c<\/span>GDP\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u6307\u6807\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u590d\u5236\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u663e\u8457\u6539\u5584\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bf4\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c<\/span>Beckley<\/strong><\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u63a8\u8bba\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/strong>GDP\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5bf9<\/span>GDP\u8fdb\u884c\u5e73\u65b9\u518d\u9664\u4ee5\u4eba\u53e3\u3002\u8fd9\u6697\u793a\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u5165<\/span>GDP\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u9879\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e0d\u6539\u53d8\u6a21\u578b\u5c42\u7ea7<\/strong><\/span>(model hierarchy)<\/strong>\uff0c\u51f8\u663e\u4eba\u53e3\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u6240\u5177\u6709\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff0c<\/span>Pomeroy<\/strong>\u5efa\u8bae\u91c7\u53d6\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e3a\u4eba\u53e3\u4fdd\u7559\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u9636\u9879<\/span>(first order term)<\/strong>\uff0c\u628a\u4eba\u53e3\u548c<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u5206\u5f00\u8003\u8651<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span>Pomeroy\u7528\u201c\u4eba\u53e3<\/strong><\/span>+GDP+GDP<\/strong>\u00b2<\/span><\/strong>\u201d\uff08\u6307\u6807<\/span>1\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u201c\uff08<\/strong><\/span>GDP<\/strong><\/span>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\uff09<\/span>+<\/strong>\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u6839<\/span><\/strong>\u201d\uff08\u6307\u6807<\/span>2\uff09\u5206\u522b\u5bf9<\/span>5\u9879\u65e2\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u884c\u590d\u5236\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>3\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u90fd\u663e\u8457\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8d64\u6c60\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u51c6\u5219\u4f1a\u60e9\u7f5a\u989d\u5916\u589e\u52a0\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6539\u8fdb\u5e94\u5f53\u5f97\u5230\u91cd\u89c6\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u52a0\u5165<\/strong><\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u9879\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5219\u6307\u6807<\/span>1<\/strong>\u6bd4\u6307\u6807<\/span>2<\/strong>\u66f4\u52a0\u59a5\u5f53<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c<\/span>Pomeroy\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span>Beckley\u4e4b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u62df\u5408\u5ea6\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ed6\u6240\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u90a3\u822c\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u5e94\u8bc6\u522b\u5e73\u65b9\u9879\uff08<\/span>quadraticspecification\uff09\u3002\u65e5\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6316\u6398\u4eba\u53e3\u548c<\/span>GDP\u4e8c\u8005\u5185\u90e8\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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Beckley\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b9e\u529b\u548c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u8bc1\u636e\u65b9\u9762<\/span>Pomeroy\u90fd\u662f\u652f\u6301<\/span>Beckley\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e24\u70b9\u8d28\u7591\uff0c<\/span>Beckley\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u56de\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c<\/span>Beckley\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1<\/strong><\/span>24<\/strong>\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709<\/span>6<\/strong>\u4f8b<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\u6307\u6807\u540c\u65f6\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u4e8e<\/span>CINC<\/strong>\u548c<\/span>GDP<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u6311\u6218\u4ed6\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ea\u5728<\/span>3\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d<\/span>GDP\u540c\u65f6\u4f18\u4e8e\u53e6\u4e24\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u800c<\/span>CINC\u53ea\u5728<\/span>2\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4f18\u4e8e\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u65e2\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u4ecd\u672a\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u7d22\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u518d\u8005\uff0c<\/span>24\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u867d\u6709<\/span>6\u4f8b<\/span>GDP\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\u6307\u6807\u7684\u9002\u5408\u5ea6\u540c\u65f6\u4f18\u4e8e<\/span>CINC\u548c<\/span>GDP\uff0c\u610f\u4e49\u5374\u5e76\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u5b9e\u529b\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u6279\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5b9e\u529b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u503c\u53d1\u751f\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u5f53\u5b83\u8ba1\u5165\u6574\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u52a8\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u968f\u673a\u9009\u53d6\u7684\u591a\u5143\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u529b\u53ea\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u671f\u5f85\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u9020\u6210\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u52a8\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u5b9e\u529b\u662f\u4e3b\u5bfc\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u52a8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u53ea\u6709\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u652f\u6301<\/span>Pomeroy\u6240\u63d0\u8bae\u4e4b\u6cd5\uff0c\u8bc1\u636e\u529b\u9887\u4e3a\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c<\/span>Beckley\u5bf9<\/span>Pomeroy\u5728\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\u62c6\u89e3<\/span>GDP\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP\uff0c\u521b\u8bbe\u4eba\u53e3<\/span>+GDP+GDP\u00b2\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6ca1\u6709\u5f02\u8bae\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u8868\u793a\u8d5e\u8d4f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb \u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011 Caleb Pome<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[24,26],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16415"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16415"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16423,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16415\/revisions\/16423"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}