{"id":15470,"date":"2020-01-13T14:00:50","date_gmt":"2020-01-13T15:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/01\/13\/cbc43e5829\/"},"modified":"2020-01-13T23:31:07","modified_gmt":"2020-01-13T15:31:07","slug":"cbc43e5829","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/01\/13\/cbc43e5829\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c312\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u5c39\u4f1f\u6587\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5fb7\u5dde<\/span>A&M\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u535a\u58eb\u751f\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u4e9a\u592a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u548c\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/strong>\u674e\u6e90<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u5ba1\u6838<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u623f\u5b87\u99a8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u6392\u7248\u3011<\/span><\/strong> \u67ef\u6657\u71d5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u3010<\/span><\/strong>\u6765\u6e90<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Yin,W. (2019).<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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Climate Shocks, Political Institutions,<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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and Nomadic Invasions inEarly Modern East Asia. Journal of Conflict<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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Resolution.<\/span><\/em> Retrieved from https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0022002719889665<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Journalof Conflict Resolution<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/span>\uff0c\u300a\u51b2\u7a81\u89e3\u51b3\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u878d\u5408\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u6742\u5fd7\u3002<\/span>JCR<\/span>\u7740\u773c\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u63a2\u7d22\u5404\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u95f4\u548c\u4eba\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span>
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Climate Shocks,Political Institutions, and Nomadic Invasions in Early Modern East Asia<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u8981\u6c42\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5374\u4f1a\u6291\u5236\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\uff08<\/strong><\/span>conditional theory<\/strong>\uff09\uff0c\u8be5\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff08\u6216\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u6218\u4e89\u53d1\u751f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\u662f\u5236\u5ea6\u6761\u4ef6\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u6240\u9020\u6210\u8d44\u6e90\u7a00\u7f3a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u8bc9\u8bf8\u66b4\u529b\u3002\u662f\u5426\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\uff08\u6781\u7aef\u5bd2\u51b7\u6216\u6781\u7aef\u5e72\u65f1\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u8c03\u52a8\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u7528\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5f71\u54cd\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u68c0\u9a8c\u5176\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\uff08\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u548c\u6ee1\u6d32\uff09\u5982\u4f55\u5bf9\u53d1\u751f\u5728<\/span>1368-1840\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u2014\u51b2\u7a81\u8054\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u8c03\u8282\u53d8\u91cf\uff08<\/span>moderating variable\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u5728\u5f53\u4ee3\u7684\u56fd\u5185<\/span>\/\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u3002\u5f53\u4ee3\u793e\u7fa4\u66b4\u529b\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u90fd\u4e25\u91cd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ea7\u4e1a\uff08<\/span>primary sector\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd8\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u56e0\u7d20\u5236\u7ea6\u3002\u5404\u51b2\u7a81\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5185\u90e8\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u6c72\u53d6\u80fd\u529b\uff08<\/span>extractive capacity\uff09\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6218\u4e89\u503e\u5411\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u5224\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u519b\u961f\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\uff08\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u519b\u8fd8\u662f\u53cd\u653f\u5e9c\u519b\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u3002\uff08<\/span>Huang 2016\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6ce8\u3011\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7f16\u8bd1\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e<\/span>Manchurian\u4e00\u8bcd\u65e0\u6cd5\u533a\u5206\u201c\u6ee1\u6d32\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u6ee1\u65cf\u201d\u4e24\u8bcd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u82f1\u8bd1\u6c49\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u8bf8\u591a\u6b67\u4e49\uff0c\u5c0f\u7f16\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c<\/span>1635\u5e74\u7687\u592a\u6781\u6539\u201c\u5973\u771f\u201d\u4e3a\u201c\u6ee1\u6d32\u201d\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u5730\u628a\u201c\u6ee1\u6d32\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0e\u6ee1\u65cf\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u76f4\u63a5\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4f46\u9996\u5148\u6ee1\u6d32\u4e2d\u201c\u6c11\u65cf\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u8fd1\u4ee3\u4ee5\u540e\u624d\u4ea7\u751f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\u6ee1\u6d32\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u4e3b\u89c2\u8ba4\u540c\u610f\u8bc6\u548c\u81ea\u6211\u5f52\u5c5e\u610f\u8bc6\u662f\u9010\u6e10\u6f14\u53d8\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u4ece\u6ee1\u6d32\u5230\u524d\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c0f\u7f16\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8bd1\u4e3a\u6ee1\u6d32\uff08\u4eba\uff09\u66f4\u8d34\u5207\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\uff1a\u5b59\u9759\uff1a\u300a\u6ee1\u6d32\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u518d\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u6e05\u4e2d\u671f\u6ee1\u6d32\u8ba4\u540c\u610f\u8bc6\u7814\u7a76\u300b\uff0c\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u8bba\u6587<\/span>2005\u5e74\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/strong>\u4e00\u3001<\/strong>\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\uff08<\/span>A Conditional Theory<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u5bf9\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u8c03\u8282\u7684\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\uff09<\/strong>\u3002\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u4f1a\u51b3\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u2014\u2014\u519b\u961f\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u6c72\u53d6\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u4e00\u8d77\u5f71\u54cd\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u65f6\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0e\u519b\u4e8b\u6548\u7387\u548c\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u5173\u7684\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5f53\u6ca1\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u96c6\u6743\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u56fd\u5bb6\u83b7\u5f97\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u5728\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5bf9\u5916\u63a0\u593a\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u96c6\u6743\u578b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c72\u53d6\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff08<\/span>Tarar 2013\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u51b2\u7a81\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fbe\u5230\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u52a8\u5458\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5373\u4f7f\u6025\u4e8e\u53d1\u52a8\u8fdb\u653b\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u53d1\u8d77\u4e5f\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\uff08<\/span>Brewer 2002\uff1bGennaioli and Voth 2015\uff1bNorth1990\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5206\u6743\u578b\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u578b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u8c03\u52a8\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff08\u4eba\u529b\u548c\u7269\u529b\uff09\u7528\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u53db\u519b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u80fd\u589e\u5f3a\u5176\u6c72\u53d6\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0b\uff0c\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u62a4\u666e\u901a\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed9\u4e88\u4ed6\u4eec\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9a\u671f\u5f81\u7a0e\uff0c\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6536\u5165\uff08<\/span>Olson 1993\uff09\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e0e\u5426\u4e0d\u4ec5\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u51b2\u7a81\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u4f5c\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e8c\u3001<\/span>\u5386\u53f2\u80cc\u666f\u4e0e\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\uff08<\/span><\/strong>HistoricalBackground and Hypotheses<\/span><\/strong>\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\uff08\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e0e\u6ee1\u6d32\uff09\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u8c03\u8282\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u4e24\u4e2a\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u8499\u53e4\u4eba\u4e0e\u6ee1\u6d32\u4eba\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9762\u5bf9\u540c\u6837\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u654c\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u6c49\u65cf\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8499\u53e4\u4eba\u7684\u6e38\u7267\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u6ee1\u6d32\u4eba\u5bf9\u72e9\u730e\u548c\u6355\u9c7c\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u5f88\u654f\u611f\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\uff08<\/span>Liu2007\uff0c121\uff1bQu 2006\uff0cvolume8\uff09<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e0e\u6ee1\u6d32\u6240\u5904\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u7eac\u5ea6\u76f8\u8fd1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u90fd\u53d7\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9664\u5374\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u5143\u671d\u4e8e<\/span>1368\u5e74\u88ab\u660e\u671d\u51fb\u8d25\u540e\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u4eba\u64a4\u9000\u56de\u5317\u65b9\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u6e38\u7267\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4ece<\/span>1368\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u90e8\u843d\u5c31\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u5206\u88c2\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5728<\/span>14\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u671f\uff0c\u5143\u671d\u706d\u4ea1\u540e\u7684\u6b8b\u4f59\u653f\u6743\u5317\u5143\u671d\u5206\u88c2\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u7684\u5c0f\u90e8\u843d\u56fd\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fbe\u5ef6\u6c57\uff08<\/span>Dayan Khan\uff09\u5728<\/span>15\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u671f\u91cd\u65b0\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u8499\u53e4\u4e1c\u90e8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5c06\u5e1d\u56fd\u5728\u5176\u8bf8\u5b50\u53ca\u5b97\u65cf\u59fb\u4eb2\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u5c01\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8499\u53e4\u793e\u4f1a\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e0b\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5206\u6743\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff08<\/span>Wada 1984\uff0c<\/span>364\uff09\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e2d\u4e16\u7eaa\u6b27\u6d32\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5c01\u5efa\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b9e\u4f53\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u8499\u53e4\u4eba\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e1c\u5317\u7684\u6ee1\u6d32\u4eba\u5728\u5efa\u7acb\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u65b9\u9762\uff08<\/span>16\u3001<\/span>17\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e4b\u4ea4\uff09\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728<\/span>16\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u90e8\u843d\u9996\u9886\u52aa\u5c14\u54c8\u8d64\uff08<\/span>Nurhaci\uff09\u638c\u6743\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6ee1\u6d32\u5730\u533a\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b9e\u4f53\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5c0f\u578b\u90e8\u843d\u6216\u5bb6\u65cf\u578b\u90e8\u843d\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u6ee1\u6d32\u90e8\u843d\u4e0e\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u7684\u90e8\u843d\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n

1583<\/strong>\u5e74\uff0c\u56e0\u53c2\u4e0e\u8de8\u5883\u8d38\u6613\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u5112\u5bb6\u6587\u5316\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u52aa\u5c14\u54c8\u8d64\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u5973\u771f\u90e8\u843d\u7684\u914b\u957f\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u6ee1\u6d32\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u96c6\u6743\u5f0f\u673a\u6784\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u6ee1\u6d32\u5730\u533a\u3002\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u52aa\u5c14\u54c8\u8d64\u7684\u513f\u5b50\u7687\u592a\u6781\uff08<\/span><\/strong>Hong Taiji\uff09<\/span>\u5c06\u6c49\u65cf\u653f\u6743\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u5236\u5ea6\u5f15\u5165\u6ee1\u6d32\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u5112\u5b66\u5bb6\u91cd\u8981\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u6ee1\u6d32\u7684\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6539\u9769\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6781\u5927\u5730\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u6d32\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u63a0\u593a\u519c\u4e1a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u7531\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u7a00\u7f3a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u8db3\u591f\u597d\uff0c\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u6ee1\u6d32\u7cbe\u82f1\u9636\u5c42\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u673a\u6784\u5b9a\u671f\u6536\u7a0e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u83b7\u53d6\u6536\u5165\uff08<\/span>Liu 2007\uff0c<\/span>241-43\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\uff08\u5206\u6743\u578b\u793e\u4f1a\uff09\uff1a\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0e\u6c14\u6e29<\/span>\/<\/strong>\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u5448\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe\u4e8c\uff08\u96c6\u6743\u578b\u793e\u4f1a\uff09\uff1a\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0e\u6c14\u6e29<\/span>\/<\/strong>\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u8054\u5e94\u8be5\u4ec5\u5728\u6ee1\u6d32\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6539\u9769\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u968f\u7740\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29<\/span>\/<\/strong>\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u5bf9\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u9012\u51cf\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u4e09\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u7ed3\u8bba\uff08<\/span>Research Design and Results<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u5206\u5272\u6837\u672c\uff08<\/span>splitsamples\uff09\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u6ee1\u6d32\uff09\u4f30\u8ba1\u57fa\u7ebf\u7ed3\u679c\uff08<\/span>baseline results\uff09\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4f4d\u4e3a\u5e74\u4efd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u5bf9\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u548c\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b58\u5728\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5\uff0c\u5219\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7b49\u4e8e<\/span>1\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e3a<\/span>0\u3002\u5728<\/span>1368\u5e74\u81f3<\/span>1840\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u6709<\/span>114\u5e74\u5b58\u5728\u5165\u4fb5\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728<\/span>1644\u5e74\uff08\u5373\u6ee1\u6d32\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6e05\u671d\u53d6\u4ee3\u660e\u671d\uff09\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u6709<\/span>110\u5e74\u5b58\u5728\u5165\u4fb5\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u800c\u6ee1\u6d32\uff08\u9488\u5bf9\u660e\u671d\u6216\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\uff09\u6709<\/span>29\u5e74\u5b58\u5728\u5165\u4fb5\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u901a\u5e38\u6bcf\u5e74\u7206\u53d1\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u4e8c\u5143\u8d4b\u503c\uff08<\/span>binary measure\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n


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\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u6c14\u6e29\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u4e8e<\/span>415\u4e2a\u51c6\u786e\u6807\u660e\u65e5\u671f\u7684\u4ee3\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u662f\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u3002<\/strong>\u6570\u636e\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5e74\u8f6e\u6570\u636e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u6d2a\u6c34\u6307\u6570\u3002\u6570\u636e\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u8005\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\uff08\u5982\u660e\u671d\u3001\u6e05\u671d\u548c\u671d\u9c9c\u738b\u671d\uff09\u53d1\u52a8\u8fdb\u653b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u7531\u4e8e\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u53d1\u8d77\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e5f\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5ffd\u7565\u6b64\u53d8\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f30\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff08<\/span>Bai and Kung 2011\uff09\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\uff08<\/span>dummy variable\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u653b\u51fb\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u53d8\u91cf\u7b49\u4e8e<\/span>1\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e3a<\/span>0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u8868<\/span>1\u4e2d\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6982\u8981\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5728\u56fe<\/span>1\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f9d\u636e\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u8d4b\u503c\u7ed8\u5236\u4e86\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6c14\u6e29\u548c\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u56fe\u3002\u5de6\u4e0a\u65b9\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u5347\u9ad8\uff08\u5982<\/span>1540\u81f3<\/span>1570\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u53d8\u5927\uff1b\u53f3\u4e0a\u65b9\u7684\u56fe\u5219\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u6c14\u6e29\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\u7684<\/span>17\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e0a\u534a\u53f6\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5e95\u90e8\u7684\u4e24\u5f20\u56fe\u6ca1\u6709\u6e05\u6670\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n


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\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u91cf\u5316\u5730\u8003\u5bdf\u4e24\u4e2a\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\uff08<\/span>Mongol Invasion\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u5177\u6709\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86<\/span>logit\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8868<\/span>2\u4e2d\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u8499\u53e4\u6837\u672c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e09\u6b21\u591a\u9879\u5f0f\u903c\u8fd1\uff08<\/span>Cubic polynomial approximation\uff09\u4e5f\u88ab\u5305\u542b\u5728\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u53f3\u4fa7\uff0c\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\uff08<\/span>temporal autocorrelation\uff09\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff08<\/span>Carter and Signorino 2010\uff09\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5357\u4fb5\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6e29\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u597d\u6218\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u5bf9\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8868<\/strong><\/span>2<\/strong>\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u6c14\u6e29\u5bf9\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\uff08<\/span><\/strong>average marginal effect<\/strong>\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>AME<\/strong>\uff09\uff1a\u6c14\u6e29\u6bcf\u5347\u9ad8<\/span><\/strong>0.1<\/strong>\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0<\/span><\/strong>11.4%<\/strong>\uff08\u89c1\u56fe<\/span><\/strong>2<\/strong>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5145\u5206\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0e\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u53d1\u52a8\u653b\u51fb\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u5e74\u5411\u8499\u53e4\u4eba\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u5219\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5e74\u53cd\u51fb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u654c\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6ca1\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u52a8\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5bf9\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\uff08<\/span>Manchurian Invasion\uff09<\/span> <\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e24\u79cd\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8c03\u8282\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u865a\u62df\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c<\/strong><\/span>1583<\/strong>\u5e74\uff08\u52aa\u5c14\u54c8\u8d64\u6574\u5408\u5973\u771f\u90e8\u843d\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\uff09\u540e\u7b49\u4e8e<\/span>1<\/strong>\uff0c<\/span>1583<\/strong>\u5e74\u524d\u4e3a<\/span>0<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u8017\u65f6\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8fd8\u5bf9\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8fde\u7eed\u5ea6\u91cf\uff08<\/strong><\/span>continuous measure<\/strong>\uff09\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u65d7\u201d\uff08\u6ee1\u6d32\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u884c\u653f\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u5355\u4f4d\uff09\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u201c\u65d7\u201d\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u8868\u660e\u6ee1\u6d32\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u590d\u6742\u548c\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5185\u751f\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5185\u751f\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u9879\u7cfb\u6570\uff08<\/span>coefficient on theinteraction term\uff09\u548c\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u5916\u884d\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684<\/span>exogenously given\uff09\u6781\u4e3a\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5185\u751f\u6027\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u59a8\u788d\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u68c0\u9a8c\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u2014\u51b2\u7a81\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8c03\u8282\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8868<\/span>3\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u4ee5\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u4e3a\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\uff08<\/span>logistic regression\uff09\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ee1\u6d32\u653b\u51fb\u660e\u671d\u6216\u671d\u9c9c\uff0c\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7f16\u7801\u4e3a<\/span>1\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e3a<\/span>0\u3002\u5728\u6a21\u578b<\/span>3\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u5236\u5ea6\u4f7f\u7528\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\uff0c<\/span>1583\u5e74\u540e\u53d6\u503c<\/span>1\u3002\u5728\u6a21\u578b<\/span>4\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u4f7f\u7528\u8fde\u7eed\u5ea6\u91cf\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7531\u201c\u65d7\u201d\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u6c14\u6e29\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u9879\u5747\u6709\u8d1f\u5c5e\u6027\uff08<\/span>negative sign\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u786e\u5b9e\u51cf\u8f7b\u4e86\u6c14\u6e29\u5bf9\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u63d0\u5347\uff08\u4ece<\/strong><\/span>0<\/strong>\u5230<\/span><\/strong>1<\/strong>\u6216\u8fde\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff09\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\u9012\u51cf\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e38\u7267\u5165\u4fb5<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56fe<\/span>3\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b<\/span>3\u548c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>4\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5de6\u56fe\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0e\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b<\/span>4\u7684<\/span>AME\u56fe\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u5f20\u56fe\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6539\u9769\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6ee1\u6d32\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u653b\u51fb\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u5bf9\u6ee1\u6d32\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u503e\u5411\u6ca1\u6709\u72ec\u7acb\u5f71\u54cd\uff08<\/span>independenteffect\uff09\u3002\u4e0e\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6ee1\u6d32\u5bf9\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5e76\u4e0d\u654f\u611f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e0e\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u660e\u671d\u53d1\u52a8\u88ad\u51fb\u4e0e\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5448\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u8054\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u671d\u9c9c\u738b\u671d\u53d1\u52a8\u88ad\u51fb\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u6ee1\u6d32\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0e\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6ee1\u6d32\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ee5\u66b4\u529b\u624b\u6bb5\u56de\u5e94\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u8fdb\u653b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u5206\u5272\u6837\u672c\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>1\u548c\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>2\u3002\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u548c\u6ee1\u6d32\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u7a00\u7f3a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u505a\u51fa\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u6709\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u5927\u63d0\u5347\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6e29\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u8fd9\u8d85\u8fc7\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u8bc1\u636e\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u81ea<\/span>1595\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u6863\u6848\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u6ee1\u6d32\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e25\u91cd\u9965\u8352\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u52aa\u5c14\u54c8\u8d64\u5728<\/span>17\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u524d\u5341\u5e74\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u5411\u660e\u671d\u9012\u4ea4\u8bf7\u613f\u4e66\uff0c\u4ee5\u501f\u7528\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u7cae\u98df\u3002<\/span>1618\u5e74\uff0c\u52aa\u5c14\u54c8\u8d64\u516c\u5f00\u5411\u660e\u671d\u5ba3\u6218\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8f6c\u79fb\u5185\u90e8\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u514b\u670d\u7531\u9965\u8352\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5371\u673a\u800c\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\uff08<\/span>Yan 2006\uff0c<\/span>176-77\uff09\u3002\u7687\u592a\u6781\u5728\u4f4d\u671f\u95f4\u6c14\u6e29\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u3002\u7687\u592a\u6781\u4e8e<\/span>1626\u5e74\u7ee7\u4efb\u540e\u91d1\u5927\u6c57\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u5404\u201c\u65d7\u201d\u5185\u4efb\u547d\u4e86<\/span>40\u540d\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5c06\u9886\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u90e8\u843d\u9996\u9886\u5bf9\u6ee1\u6d32\u519b\u961f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u88ab\u5927\u5927\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\uff08<\/span>Liu 2007\uff0c<\/span>248\uff09\u3002<\/span>1628\u5e74\uff0c\u7687\u592a\u6781\u8981\u6c42\u671d\u9c9c\u738b\u671d\u63d0\u4f9b\u7cae\u98df\u63f4\u52a9\u3002\u906d\u5230\u62d2\u7edd\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u51b3\u5b9a\u91c7\u53d6\u5192\u9669\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u7387\u65b0\u8fd1\u6539\u5236\u7684\u516b\u65d7\uff08<\/span>Eight Banners\uff09\u76f4\u63a5\u653b\u51fb\u660e\u671d\u7684\u90fd\u57ce\u5317\u4eac\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u519b\u961f\u6210\u529f\u7a81\u7834\u4e86\u957f\u57ce\uff0c\u6d17\u52ab\u4e86\u4eac\u57ce\u5468\u906d\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6ee1\u6d32\u4eba\u6682\u65f6\u88ab\u8d76\u56de\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u62a2\u897f\u8fb9\uff08<\/span>razing the west\uff09\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u6ee1\u6d32\u6218\u58eb\u7684\u53e3\u53f7\uff08<\/span>Wang2008\uff09\u3002\u5927\u7ea6\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e5f\u906d\u53d7\u6076\u52a3\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u56f0\u6270\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u8499\u53e4\u90e8\u843d\u6ca1\u6709\u63a0\u593a\u519c\u4e1a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9003\u5f80\u6ee1\u6d32\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u6ee1\u6d32\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u7ed9\u7cae\u98df\u4f9b\u5e94\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff08<\/span>Wang 2008\uff09\u3002\u4e0e\u8499\u53e4\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e2d\u592e\u96c6\u6743\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e86\u6709\u6548\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u52a8\u5458\uff0c\u6ee1\u6d32\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u8d44\u6e90\u7a00\u7f3a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f9d\u9760<\/span>12\u4e07\u201c\u65d7\u201d\u5175\u51fb\u8d25\u4e86\u62e5\u6709<\/span>100\u4e07\u5175\u529b\u7684\u660e\u671d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56db\u3001<\/span>\u7ed3 \u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u50cf\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6613\u53d7\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4f1a\u613f\u610f\u63a0\u593a\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5bcc\u88d5\u7684\u5730\u533a\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u7531\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u77ed\u7f3a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u8981\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\uff08\u53d7\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\u3002\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4f1a\u66f4\u5927\uff08<\/span>Devlin and Hendrix 2014\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\u5dee\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5373\u4f7f\u6e34\u671b\u53d1\u8d77\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u6267\u884c\u5176\u519b\u4e8b\u6218\u7565\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u5f71\u54cd\u52a8\u5458\u80fd\u529b\u5916\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6c72\u53d6\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ea7\u751f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6c14\u5019\u9002\u5b9c\u65f6\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u578b\u793e\u4f1a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u53d1\u52a8\u8fdb\u653b\uff0c\u800c\u5206\u6743\u578b\u793e\u4f1a\u5219\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u8d77\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u9002\u5408\u8fdb\u884c\u6218\u4e89\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e24\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u8c03\u8282\u4f5c\u7528\uff1a\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u548c\u6ee1\u6d32\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6ee1\u6d32\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6539\u9769\u524d\u540e\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5206\u6743\u7684\u8499\u53e4\u65cf\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6c14\u6e29\u8f83\u4f4e\u65f6\u53d1\u8d77\u5bf9\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u6076\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c<\/strong><\/span>1583<\/strong>\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u6ee1\u6d32\u4e5f\u66f4\u5584\u4e8e\u52a8\u5458\u4eba\u529b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u5148\u8fdb\u548c\u66f4\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u6ee1\u6d32\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u6e29\u548c\u65f6\u65e0\u987b\u8fdb\u653b\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u6ee1\u6d32\u96c6\u6743\u5316\u6539\u9769\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u6c14\u6e29\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u8fd8\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5c06\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5386\u53f2\u4e0e\u5f53\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5173\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e2d\u89c2\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u63a2\u7d22\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4ee5\u53ca\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u957f\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff08<\/span>Dell\uff0c<\/span>Lane\uff0c<\/span>andQuerubin 2018\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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