{"id":15348,"date":"2020-01-04T05:31:26","date_gmt":"2020-01-04T05:34:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/01\/04\/4dcba5c6a9\/"},"modified":"2020-01-04T13:43:24","modified_gmt":"2020-01-04T05:43:24","slug":"4dcba5c6a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2020\/01\/04\/4dcba5c6a9\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c305\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n

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\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u683c\u91cc\u79d1\uff08<\/span>Joseph M. Grieco\uff09\u662f\u675c\u514b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u9886\u57df\u7684\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u95f4\u8fa9\u8bba\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u8457\u4f5c\u6709\u300a<\/span><\/span>State Power and World Markets: The International Political Economy<\/span>\u300b\u3001\u300a<\/span><\/span>Cooperation Among Nations: Europe, America, and Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade<\/span>\u300b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u67ef\u5b5c\u51dd\uff08\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52a1\u5b66\u9662\u7855\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u674e\u535a\u8f69<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u59da\u5bf0\u5b87<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Grieco. J.<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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(2019). Schools of thought in international relations. International Studies Review(21), 424-446.<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u671f\u520a\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\uff08<\/span><\/span>International Studies Review<\/span>\uff09\u521b\u520a\u4e8e<\/span>1957<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u539f\u540d\u4e3a<\/span>Mershon International Studies Review<\/span>\uff0c\u4e8e<\/span>1999<\/span>\u5e74\u66f4\u6539\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u520a\u540d\uff0c\u5377\u7f16\u53f7\u4ece<\/span>1<\/span>\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u8be5\u671f\u520a\u662f\u7531\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u4ee3\u8868\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u534f\u4f1a\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u5ba1\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u4ee5\u5b63\u520a\u5f62\u5f0f\u53d1\u884c\u3002\u4e3b\u7f16\u662f<\/span>Amanda Murdie<\/span>\u3002<\/span>2018<\/span>\u5e74\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\uff08<\/span>Impact Factor<\/span>\uff09\u4e3a<\/span>2.076<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d<\/span>\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Schools of Thought Problem in International Relations<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5185\u5bb9\u63d0\u8981<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u6559\u5b66\u88ab\u6846\u5b9a\u4e3a\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u6ee1\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u6b64\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u6539\u9769\u9009\u9879\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u53ef\u4f9b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u9009\u9879\u79f0\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4e00\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08<\/span>analytical singularism<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8981\u6c42\u629b\u5f03\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6d41\u6d3e\uff0c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u4ee5\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u3001\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u72ed\u9698\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u548c\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u7684\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9009\u9879\u88ab\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u9057\u6f0f\u548c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u6a21\u62df\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8fdb\u7a0b\u6240\u56f0\u6270\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u9009\u9879\u662f\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08<\/span>\n
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analytical eclecticism\uff09\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6539\u826f\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u601d\u8003\u4e0d\u540c\u6d41\u6d3e\u4e2d\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u8981\u7d20\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d\u4e3b\u4e49\u6709\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u504f\u597d\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u5883\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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context-speci\ufb01c<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n\uff09\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u3002\u968f\u540e\u4f5c\u8005\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u6d41\u6d3e\u5b66\u8005\u95f4\u5408\u4f5c\u6027\u4e89\u9e23\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u6d41\u6d3e\u901a\u8fc7\u5f7c\u6b64\u95f4\u7684\u6279\u5224\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u5404\u6d41\u6d3e\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u63a8\u8fdb\u56fd\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u4e0a\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u8005\u7ecf\u5e38\u6839\u636e\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u60f3\u8c61<\/span>\u6216\u5c42\u6b21\u5206\u6790\u6cd5<\/span>\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6709\u5173\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\u3001\u5199\u4f5c<\/span>\u548c\u6559\u5b66\uff0c\u5c24\u5176<\/span>\u662f\u7531<\/span><\/span>Waltz<\/span>(<\/span>\n
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1959)<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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1961<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n)<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u8d77\u56e0\u548c\u548c\u5e73\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u60f3\u8c61\u6216\u5c42\u6b21\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u786e\u5b9a\u5f71\u54cd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u673a\u5236\u662f\u6e90\u81ea\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u3001\u56fd\u5185\u7ed3\u6784\u5c42\u9762\u8fd8\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u6291\u6216\u662f\u5728\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u5728\u5199\u4f5c\u548c\u6559\u5b66\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u6216\u4f20\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u6559\u5e08\u504f\u597d\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u504f\u597d\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u5e38\u56f4\u7ed5\u7740\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u5efa\u6784\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u5973\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u4e49\u7b49\u5b66\u6d3e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd1\u6765\uff0c<\/span>\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u62c5\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u533a\u5206<\/span>\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002<\/span><\/span>Lake<\/span>\u00a0(<\/span>\n
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2011<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u6d41\u6d3e\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u96c7\u4f63\u8ba9\u7814\u7a76\u4f20\u7edf\u5177\u4f53\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u523a\u6fc0\u4e86\u77e5\u8bc6\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u7814\u7a76\u4f20\u7edf\u6df7\u6dc6\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u53ea\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e00\u79cd\u6216\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u52a8\u652f\u6301\u8005\u5c06\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u4f20\u7edf\u63a8\u5411\u5408\u7406\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u9886\u57df\u6761\u4ef6\u4e4b\u5916\u3002<\/span>Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Katzenstein<\/span>(<\/span>2010<\/span>)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u6d3e\u6216\u5b83\u4eec\u6240\u79f0\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u90fd\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u90a3\u4e9b\u6309\u7167\u4e00\u79cd\u6216\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u4f1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u72ed\u9698\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\u65e0\u6cd5\u628a\u63e1\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u5bf9\u63d0\u51fa\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6784\u60f3\u548c\u5904\u7406\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u4f5c\u7528\u6709\u9650\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u5e94\u91c7\u53d6\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b9\u6848\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u6d41\u6d3e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5f0a\u75c5\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6539\u5584\uff1f\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u6b64\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a<\/span>\u9009\u9879\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u4e8c\u3001\u9009\u9879\u4e00\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u00a0<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u6539\u5584\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7b2c<\/span>\u4e00\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5355\u4e00\u5206\u6790<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/span>Lake\u00a0<\/span>(<\/span>\n
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2011,2013)\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u5f03\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u66ff\u4ee3\u6846\u67b6\u5305\u62ec\u5173\u6ce8\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u5bf9\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span> \u8fd9\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u5177\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u4f9d\u9760\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684<\/span>\u201c\u5f00\u653e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u6cbb<\/span>\u201d\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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OEP\uff09\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u7531\u4e09\u4e2a<\/span>\u8bcd\u6c47<\/span>\u2014\u2014\u5229\u76ca<\/span>\u3001<\/span>\u673a\u6784\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u672f\u8bed<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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OEP<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u53d8\u4f53\uff0c\u6ce8\u5165\u4e86\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u5305\u62ec\u6bd4\u8f83<\/span>\u653f\u6cbb<\/span>\u9886\u57df\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u8981\u7d20\uff0c<\/span>\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u8d38\u6613\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5206\u914d\u540e\u679c\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4ece\u56fd\u5185\u673a\u6784\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u89d2\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u56fd\u9645<\/span>\u4e8b\u52a1\u5177\u6709\u60a0\u4e45\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e86\u89e3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u7740\u773c\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u73af\u5883\u7684\u51fa\u53d1\u70b9\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f<\/span>\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa<\/span>\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u8981\u514b\u670d\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u53ef<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u652f\u6301<\/span><\/strong>\u8005\u575a\u6301<\/span><\/strong>\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u548c\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u4f7f<\/span><\/strong>\u5f97<\/span><\/strong>\u4ed6\u4eec<\/span><\/strong>\u5173\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645<\/span><\/strong>\u4e8b\u52a1<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/strong>\u6a21\u578b\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230<\/span><\/strong>\u89c4\u8303\u4e0d\u8db3<\/span><\/strong>\u548c<\/span><\/strong>\u5ffd\u89c6\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6709\u5173\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u3001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u8005\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u6216\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u65f6\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4ece\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u73af\u5883\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u56fd\u9645\u6743\u529b\u7684\u5206\u914d\u3002\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u5219\u662f\u6307\u5b66\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ee5\u53ca\u83b7\u53d6\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u5728\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u53ea\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u6216\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span>OEP<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u4ece\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u4e0a\u5c06\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u4e14\u552f\u7269\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u884c\u52a8\u8005\uff08\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u3001\u96c6\u56e2\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u8981\u7d20\uff09\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u5185\u5236\u5ea6\u6216\u56fd\u9645\u5236\u5ea6\u6765\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u9645\u6761\u4ef6\u5e38\u5e38\u96be\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c<\/span>\n
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OEP\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\u662f\u5728\u504f\u89c1<\/span>\u7684<\/span>\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u7684<\/span>\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5c06\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5e38\u91cf\u3002<\/span>\u7136\u800c<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>\u5c31\u56fd\u5185\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u6761\u4ef6<\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5ea6\u800c<\/span>\u8a00\uff0c\u4ec5<\/span>\u5173\u6ce8\u56fd\u5185\u6761\u4ef6\u7684<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd<\/span>\u9047\u5230<\/span>\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee<\/span>\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\u3002\u5373<\/span>\u4fbf\u6211\u4eec<\/span>\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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OEP\u6a21\u578b\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u9057\u6f0f<\/span>\u53d8\u91cf\u7684<\/span>\u95ee\u9898\uff0c<\/span>\u5176<\/span>\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f<\/span>\u63a2\u8ba8<\/span>\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u4e92\u52a8\u4e0d\u8db3<\/span>\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c<\/span>\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd<\/span>\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a<\/span>\u5931\u771f\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span>\u5982<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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Oatley<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n(2011,2013)\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u4ec5\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u5931\u8c03\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u8054\u7cfb\u5728<\/span>2008–<\/span><\/span>2009<\/span>\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u8d77\u56e0\u3001\u53d1\u7aef\u548c\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
OEP<\/strong>\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong>\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4e3a<\/span><\/strong>\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u867d\u7136<\/span><\/span><\/span>OEP<\/span>\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e3e\u8db3\u8f7b\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5728<\/span>\u6709\u5173\u5982\u4f55\u9884\u9632\u6216\u51cf\u8f7b<\/span><\/span>2008<\/span>\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/span>\u5371\u673a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6784\u60f3\u65b9\u9762\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c<\/span><\/span><\/span>OEP<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u51e0\u4e4e<\/span>\u4e0d\u52a0\u6279\u5224\u5730\u63a5\u53d7\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373\u76f8\u5173\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\uff08\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\uff09\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u79bb\u5fc3\u7ed9\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5c55\u5f00\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u4f7f<\/span>O<\/span>EP\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005<\/span>\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1<\/span><\/span><\/span>2000<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>\u521d\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u8fdd\u53cd\u5ba1\u614e\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8fd9\u4e00\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e<\/span>\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ec5\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c<\/span>\u5206\u6790\uff0c<\/span><\/span>OEP<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span>\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7684<\/span>\u9884\u671f\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5c11\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230<\/span>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684<\/span>\u5371\u673a\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u79cd\u91d1\u878d\u6e20\u9053\u4f20\u64ad\u6269\u6563\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e09\u3001<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u9009\u9879\u4e8c\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d\u4e3b\u4e49\u2014\u2014\u4e3a\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u5b66\u672f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u00a0<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Katzenstein<\/span> (<\/span><\/span>2010<\/span>)<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u5c55\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7b2c<\/span>\u4e00\uff0c\u51fa\u4e8e\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u5bfb\u6c42\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u5b9e\u7528\u4e3b\u4e49\u601d\u60f3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span>Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Katzenstein<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f<\/span>\u5e94\u8be5\u5305\u542b<\/span>\u5b9e\u8df5\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5e94\u8be5\u4ea7\u751f<\/span>\u201c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6f5c\u5728\u5730\u8c08\u5230\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Katzenstein<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ece<\/span><\/span>Robert Merton<\/span> (<\/span>1968<\/span>)\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u4e2d\u884d\u751f\u51fa\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u7406\u8bba\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>middle-range theories<\/span>\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u524d\u9014\u7684\u83b7\u53d6\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e5f\u80fd\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684<\/span>\u201c\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\u201d\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c<\/span>\u4e3a\u4e86\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e2d\u5c42\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684<\/span>\u524d\u666f\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Katzenstein<\/span>\u5efa\u8bae\u91c7\u7528\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u5e94<\/span>\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\u5b66\u6d3e\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176<\/span>\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u90fd\u6709<\/span>\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u52a1\u3002\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\u201c\u5047\u8bbe\u7269\u8d28\u80fd\u529b\u5206\u5e03\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u5f3a\u8c03\uff09\uff0c\u81ea\u79c1\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u6240\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u5f3a\u8c03\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u89c2\u5ff5\u3001<\/span>\u89c4\u8303\u548c\u8eab\u4efd\u5728\u6784\u7b51\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff08\u7531\u5efa\u6784\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u8d4b\u4e88\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6784\u5efa\u95ee\u9898\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u80fd\u591f\u63ed\u793a\u5b64\u7acb\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u79bb\u6563\u673a\u5236\u548c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u5206<\/span>\u6790\u6298\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u8981\u7d20\u5173\u6ce8<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u672c\u8d28<\/span>\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/span> Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Katzenstein<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span>\u8bc4\u4f30\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5f52\u7eb3\u6cd5\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>generalizability<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u56e0\u679c<\/span>\u673a\u5236\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0a\u4ea7\u751f\u9884\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76<\/span>\u4e0d\u8d5e\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u5b8c\u5168\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728<\/span>\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u7a7a\u73af\u5883\u7684\u673a\u5236\u914d\u7f6e<\/span>\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd<\/span>\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u80fd<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u5728\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u8d8a\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u91cd\u73b0\u4e0e\u5426\u4ea7\u751f\u5373\u65f6\u6548\u5e94\uff08<\/span><\/span>immediate effects<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u4f46<\/span>\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u73b0\u5e76\u53ef\u88ab\u76f4<\/span>\u63a5\u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230<\/span>\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span>Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Katzenstein<\/span>\u6307\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a<\/span>\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684<\/span>\u201c\u6548\u679c<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03<\/span>\u201c\u666e\u904d\u6027\u3001\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3001\u7279\u6b8a<\/span>\u6027\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u90fd\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7136\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684<\/span>\u5185\u5728\u5c5e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u5206\u6790\u6298<\/span><\/strong>\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong>\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span><\/strong>\u5bf9<\/span><\/strong>\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u81ea\u4e0d\u540c<\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u6d3e<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/strong>\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u7269<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4f20\u7edf\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u8d44\u6599\u5e93\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u5e76\u53ef\u4ee5<\/span><\/strong>\u4ece\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u7840\u5143\u7d20\u7528\u4e8e\u6784\u5efa\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u9879\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u6298<\/span><\/strong>\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong>\u4e3b\u4e49\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005<\/span><\/strong>\u9762\u4e34\u4e24\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\u6d89\u53ca\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u5c3d\u7ba1<\/span><\/span>Sil<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Katzenstein<\/span>\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u6298\u4e2d\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5c11\u91cf\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span>\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u901a<\/span>\u5e38\u4e0d\u592a\u7b26\u5408<\/span>\u4f7f\u7528\u4ea4\u4e92\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u5373<\/span>\u8981\u533a\u5206\u4ea4\u4e92\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u5143\u7d20\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u9879\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5927\u6837\u672c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>large-N statistical analyses<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u6b64\u7c7b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6548\u5e94\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u56e0\u679c\u8981\u7d20<\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u8de8\u8d8a<\/span>\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9610\u660e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5c31<\/span>\u662f\u5fc5\u4e0d\u53ef\u5c11\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u5c11\u91cf\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5143\u7d20\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6548\u5e94\uff0c<\/span>\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u5305\u542b\u5408\u7406\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0b\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c<\/span>\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\u6216\u91c7\u7528\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff08<\/span><\/span>QCA<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u6280\u672f\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e2d\u7b49\u7edf\u8ba1\u6837\u672c<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>middle-N studies<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u4f46\u76ee\u524d<\/span>\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5355\u4e2a\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u6216\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4f55<\/span>\u5b9e\u73b0\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5206\u6790\u6298<\/span><\/strong>\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong>\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6d89\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e0e<\/span><\/strong>\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0e<\/span><\/strong>\u9488\u5bf9\u60c5\u5883\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\u7279\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5076\u7136\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u77db\u76fe<\/span><\/strong>\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u4fc3\u8fdb<\/span><\/strong>\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong>\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\u6d89\u53ca\u7684<\/span>\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u5883\u548c<\/span>\u65e0\u6cd5\u666e\u904d\u5316<\/span>\u590d\u6742\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3<\/span>\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u6267\u884c\u8005<\/span>\u96be\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u6b64<\/span>\u65b9\u6cd5\u521b\u9020<\/span>\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u56e0\u6b64<\/span>\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6210\u679c<\/span>\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8bef\u5bfc\u516c\u4f17\u8206<\/span>\u8bba\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5206\u6790\u6298\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e3b\u4e49\u5bf9\u5bbd\u6cdb\u7684\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u548c\u5f3a\u8c03\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u5883\u7684<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u5076\u7136\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89c4\u8303\u5316\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89c4\u8303<\/span>\u5316\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>overspeci\ufb01cation<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5bf9\u77ed\u671f\u968f\u673a\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5b66\u8005\u975e\u5e38\u52aa\u529b\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u53ea<\/span>\u9488\u5bf9\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5374<\/span>\u65e0\u6cd5\u9610\u660e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89c4\u8303\u5316\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u975e\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e13\u5bb6\u5c06\u4e4b<\/span>\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\u6570\u636e<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span>over-\ufb01tting the data<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6216<\/span> \u201c\u66f2\u7ebf\u62df\u5408<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span>curve-\ufb01tting<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>\u201c\u5783\u573e\u6876<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span>garbage can<\/span>\uff09\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u662f\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89c4\u8303\u90fd\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\u3002\u4ece\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u63a8\u8bba\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5316<\/span>\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89c4\u8303\u5316\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u4ea7\u751f\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u7279\u5b9a\u7814\u7a76\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u72ed\u4e49\u9650\u5236\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u6848\u4f8b\u6216\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff09\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f46<\/span><\/strong>\u6709\u9650<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u5f52\u7eb3\u7814<\/span><\/strong>\u7a76<\/span><\/strong>\u4ecd<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u4e00\u9879\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/strong>Gaddis<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(1997)\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u548c\u4f4e\u53ef\u590d\u5236\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u5c5e\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1<\/span><\/strong>\u5197\u957f\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u4f46<\/span><\/strong>\u5b83\u4eec<\/span><\/strong>\u4e3a<\/span><\/strong>\u67d0\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63d0\u4f9b<\/span><\/strong>\u4e86<\/span><\/strong>\u5168\u9762\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u5206\u6790\u6298<\/span><\/strong>\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong>\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8bb8\u591a<\/span><\/strong>\u652f\u6301\u8005<\/span><\/strong>\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u5927\u91cf\u4e0e<\/span><\/strong>\u60c5\u5883<\/span><\/strong>\u76f8\u5173\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\u89e3\u91ca\u7814\u7a76\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u666e\u904d\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\u95ee\u9898\u5c06\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5206\u6790\u6298<\/span><\/strong>\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong>\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005<\/span><\/strong>\u9700\u8981<\/span><\/strong>\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53cd\u601d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u7684<\/span>\u6539\u9769\u8ba1\u5212\u8fd8\u6709<\/span>\u54ea\u4e9b\u9009\u62e9\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5e76<\/span>\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u4e00<\/span>\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u76f8\u53cd<\/span>\uff0c\u66f4\u4e3a\u5408\u7406\u548c\u7b26\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u5e94<\/span>\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u6539\u9769\u8ba1\u5212\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u800c<\/span>\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a<\/span>\u6539\u8fdb\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u52a0\u5165\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5<\/span>\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206<\/span>\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86<\/span>\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5<\/span>\u534f\u4f5c\u6027<\/span>\u6311\u6218\u8fc7\u7a0b\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6d41\u6d3e\u95f4\u5bf9<\/span>\u8bdd\u7684\u6784\u60f3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u534f\u4f5c<\/span><\/strong>\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\u6311\u6218\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4e8b\u5148<\/span><\/strong>\u5bf9\u5982\u4f55\u5f00\u5c55<\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u5373\u5b83<\/span><\/strong>\u4e0d\u9700\u8981<\/span><\/strong>\u5728<\/span><\/strong>\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba<\/span><\/strong>\u4e0a<\/span><\/strong>\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e00<\/span><\/strong>\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9488\u5bf9\u7684\u662f\u5728\u5148\u524d\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u4e2d\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u8fdb<\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u6784\u60f3\u6709\u5173\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u5f3a\u8c03\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u6d3e<\/span>\u4ea4\u6d41\u5c06\u6539\u5584\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>Hermann\uff08<\/span>1998<\/span>\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span>\u4e0d\u540c\u89c2\u70b9\u652f\u6301\u8005<\/span>\u95f4\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u79cd\u597d\u5904\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u504f\u89c1<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>Wight<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span>2006<\/span>\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6301<\/span>\u4e0d\u540c\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u5b66\u8005<\/span>\u8f83\u5c11\u5173\u6ce8\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5173\u6ce8\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u548c\u76f8\u4f3c\u70b9\uff0c\u5982\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u60c5\u5883\u548c\u4e0e\u7ed3\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5c06<\/span>\u4f1a\u66f4\u6709\u6210\u6548<\/span>\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c<\/span><\/span> Jackson<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span>2010<\/span>\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u8005\u5373\u4f7f\u5bf9<\/span>\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u89e3\u4e16\u754c\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e09\u79cd\u5171\u540c\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u4e92\u52a8\uff1a<\/span>\u4e3b\u5f20\u5e94\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u4e0e\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u8054\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u5e94\u53cd\u6620\u771f\u5b9e\u4e0e\u53ef\u80fd\u7684<\/span>\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0<\/span>\u5e94\u63a5\u53d7<\/span>\u516c\u4f17\u7684\u6279\u5224<\/span>\u3002\u5fc5\u987b\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b66\u6d3e<\/span>\u672c\u8eab\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ea7\u751f\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u8bf4<\/span>\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5fc5\u8981<\/span>\u7684\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\u9886\u57df\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u901a<\/span>\u5e38\u4e0d\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u67d0\u4e00\u5b66\u6d3e<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u6216\u591a\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u89c1\u8bc6\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218\u9700\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u8fa9\u62a4\u8005\u548c\u6311\u6218\u8005\u90fd\u540c\u610f\u7684\u53ef\u89c1<\/span>\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/span>\u5982\u679c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u589e\u5f3a\u540e\u8005\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u786e\u5b9a\u8fd9\u79cd\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u56fd\u9645<\/span>\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5229\u7528\u6700\u4e0d\u53ef<\/span>\u80fd\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>least-likely<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>most-likely<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u671f\u671b\u7684\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f<\/span><\/span><\/span>Rapport<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>2015<\/span>\uff09\u6240\u53d1\u5c55<\/span>\u7684\u4ece\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u9645\u5173<\/span>\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u63a8\u5bfc\u671f\u671b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u903b\u8f91<\/span>\u662f\u5728\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5f62\u6210<\/span>\u7684\uff0c\u4f46<\/span><\/span>Levy<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span>2007<\/span>\uff09\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8be5\u903b\u8f91\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6216\u5b9a\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7ed3\u5408\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u88ab<\/span>\u5438\u5f15\u800c<\/span>\u53c2\u4e0e<\/span>\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u62e5\u6709\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u654f<\/span>\u611f\u6027\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>social scientific sensibility<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373<\/span>\u6709\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u76f8\u4fe1<\/span>\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u57fa\u4e8e\u67d0\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7279\u5b9a<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6765\u63a8\u5b9a\u3001<\/span>\u786e\u5b9a\u5e76\u51ed\u501f\u7ecf<\/span>\u9a8c\u8bc4\u4f30\u547d\u9898\u7684<\/span>\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u547d\u9898\u89c4\u5b9a\u4e0e<\/span>\u5148\u51b3\u6761\u4ef6\u548c<\/span>\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u95f4\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5173\u8054\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u83b7\u53d6\u672c\u9886\u57df<\/span>\u77e5\u8bc6\u65b9\u9762<\/span>\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u613f\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u77ed\u671f\u968f\u673a\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002<\/span>\u4f46\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\u4eba\u4eec\u4e5f\u8ba4<\/span>\u8bc6\u5230\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u9884\u671f\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9650\u5236<\/span>\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u786e\u5b9a\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a<\/span>\u5f62\u5f0f\u63a7\u5236\u4eba\u7c7b\u9009\u62e9\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span>\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c<\/span>\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528<\/span>\u4e00\u79cd\u4e2d\u95f4\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bfb\u6c42\u548c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684<\/span>\u201c\u5f31<\/span>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u53ef\u5851\u6027\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a<\/span>\u63a7\u5236<\/span>\u201d\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u6311\u6218\u8005\u548c\u8fa9\u62a4<\/span>\u8005\u5b8c\u5168\u81ea\u613f\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u624d\u80fd\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5fc5\u987b\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6240\u5438\u5f15\u3002\u5728\u6240\u6709\u5b66\u672f\u9886\u57df\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u9886<\/span>\u57df\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u523a\u732c\u578b<\/span><\/span>\u201d\u2460<\/span><\/sup>\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>Hedgehogs<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u5d07\u5c1a<\/span>\u5173\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u8d77\u6e90<\/span>\u7684\u5b8f\u5927<\/span>\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6743\u529b\u3001<\/span>\u6027\u522b\u3001<\/span>\u7406\u6027\u6216\u4e3b\u4f53\u95f4\u6027\u542b\u4e49\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b<\/span>\u201c\u523a\u732c\u578b<\/span><\/span>\u201d\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1<\/span>\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u52a1\u6709\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u504f\u89c1\uff0c<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u5bfb\u6c42\u5e94\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6311\u6218\u7684\u89c2<\/span>\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c2\u70b9\u8db3\u591f\u6709\u8da3\u3002<\/span>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c\u72d0\u72f8\u578b<\/span><\/span>\u201d\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>foxes<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u56fd\u9645<\/span>\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u8bf8\u591a<\/span>\u56e0\u7d20\u548c<\/span>\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6301\u5f00\u653e\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e<\/span>\u4ed6\u4eec\u592a\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u540c\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u671d\u7740\u8981\u6c42\u4e25\u82db\u4f46\u6709\u524d\u666f\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/span>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6279\u5224\u7406\u8bba\u6216\u5404\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u540e\u73b0\u4ee3\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5f3a\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u3002\u8fd9<\/span>\u5408\u4e4e\u9053\u5fb7\u4f46\u5374\u4e0d\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb<\/span>\u6b22\u8fce\uff0c\u56e0\u5176<\/span>\u672a\u80fd\u63a8\u8fdb\u4eba\u7c7b\u89e3\u653e\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u52a9\u529b\u4e0e<\/span>\u5de9\u56fa\u5f53\u524d\u4e0d\u516c\u6b63\u7684<\/span>\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5047\u8bbe\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span>\u662f\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u4f7f\u5f97\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u8005\u4f1a\u81ea\u613f\u53c2\u4e0e\u6b64\u7c7b\u6311\u6218\uff1f\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5bf9\u589e\u5f3a\u5b66\u672f\u58f0\u8a89\u3001\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u504f\u597d\u4e0a\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span>\u5982\u679c\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u516c\u5171\u5143\u7d20\uff08\u53ef\u80fd\u59cb\u4e8e\u79c1\u4eba\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6311\u6218\u8005<\/span>\u548c\u8fa9\u62a4\u5b66\u8005\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5176\u81ea\u8eab<\/span>\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\uff08<\/span>\u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span>\u2460\u00a0<\/span>\u5728\u300a\u4fc4\u56fd\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u8d5b\u4e9a\u00b7\u4f2f\u6797\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5176\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u5206\u7c7b\u6cd5\u2014\u2014\u201c\u72d0\u72f8\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u523a\u732c\u201d\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u72d0\u72f8\u591a\u77e5\uff0c\u800c\u523a\u732c\u6709\u4e00\u5927\u77e5\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u63a8\u8bf8\u5b57\u9762\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u72d0\u72f8\u673a\u5de7\u767e\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u654c\u523a\u732c\u4e00\u9488\u9632\u5fa1\u201d\u3002\u4f2f\u6797\u7528\u72d0\u72f8\u548c\u523a\u732c\u5206\u522b\u6bd4\u55bb\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u72d0\u72f8\u6307\u79bb\u5fc3\u5f0f\u7684\u3001\u6563\u6f2b\u7684\u3001\u591a\u5c42\u6b21\u751a\u81f3\u76f8\u4e92\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u591a\u5143\u6027\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u523a\u732c\u5219\u6307\u4e00\u5143\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u5bbf\u547d\u8bba\u3002<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4e00\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span>\u6613\u4e8e\u5ffd\u7565\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5176\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7406\u89e3\u7684<\/span>\u884c\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u529b<\/span>\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a<\/span>\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f3a\u8c03\u56fd\u5185\u6761<\/span>\u4ef6\u4e0e\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u6269\u5c55\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u7406\u89e3\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684<\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u518d<\/span>\u5b8c\u5168\u5730<\/span>\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218<\/span><\/strong>\u8868\u660e<\/span><\/strong>\u4e86\u6539\u9769\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd<\/span><\/strong>\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u6210\u679c\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\u56e0\u7d20<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4f46<\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6784\u6210<\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66<\/span><\/strong>\u6539\u9769\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u5c31<\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u672c\u8eab<\/span><\/strong>\u4ee5\u53ca<\/span><\/strong>\u5176\u5bf9<\/span><\/strong>\u5176\u4ed6<\/span><\/strong>\u89c2\u5ff5<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u63a8\u52a8<\/span><\/strong>\u800c\u8a00<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u8de8<\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong>\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u534f\u4f5c\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec<\/span><\/strong>\u6df1\u5165\u7406<\/span><\/strong>\u89e3<\/span><\/strong>\u6211\u4eec<\/span><\/strong>\u6240\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u3010\u5a92\u4f53\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u5a92\u4f53\u53d8\u8fc1\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5173\u8f6c\u5411\uff1a\u56fd\u5173\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u7684\u65b0\u5a92\u4f53\u7814\u7a76\u73b0\u72b6 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c298\u671f<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6743\u529b\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6743\u529b\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c299\u671f<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8861\u3011\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u8f9b\u683c\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\u5206\u6790\u95ee\u9898\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c300\u671f<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u8bba\u3011\u4fe1\u8a89\u4e4b\u540e\uff1a\u5ddd\u666e\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c301\u671f
<\/a>\u3010\u9738\u6743\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u6218\u7565\u4e2d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u904f\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c302\u671f<\/a><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c10\u671f | International Studies Review, Volume.21, No.3, 2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c11\u671f | Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 54, No. 4, 2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c12\u671f | International Affairs, Vol.95, No.6\uff0c2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c13\u671f|Chinese Journal of International Politics, No.4, 2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c14\u671f|Chinese Journal of International Politics, No.3, 2019<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5206\u7c7b\u5bfc\u89c8 1<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5206\u7c7b\u5bfc\u89c8 2<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u70b9\u201c\u5728\u770b<\/span>\u201d\u7ed9\u6211\u4e00\u6735\u5c0f\u9ec4\u82b1<\/span>\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\uff09\uff1a\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c305\u671f<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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