{"id":15172,"date":"2019-12-07T12:17:59","date_gmt":"2019-12-31T06:19:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/31\/73e4a92261\/"},"modified":"2019-12-31T14:19:11","modified_gmt":"2019-12-31T06:19:11","slug":"73e4a92261","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/07\/73e4a92261\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u53f6\u6210\u57ce \u5510\u4e16\u5e73\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8003\u5bdf\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span>\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5f3a\u8c03:\u5bf9\u4e8e\u201c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20+\u673a\u5236\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u201d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u52a0\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u53d1\u73b0\u6216\u68c0\u9a8c\u673a\u5236\u201d\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u201d\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/span>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u8bb8\u591a\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u601d\u7ef4\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6279\u5224\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u66f4\u52a0\u5177\u4f53\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7ed9\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u201d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u7b5b\u9009\u9009\u62e9\u673a\u5236\u76f8\u540c\u4f46\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6760\u6746(casual leverage)\u548c\u5185\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u3002<\/span>\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684:\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5927\u6837\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u62bd\u6837\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u9700\u4fdd\u6301\u62bd\u6837\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\u6027;\u4f46\u5728\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6760\u6746\u5f80\u5f80\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span>\u4ece\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u6765\u63d0\u9ad8\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u5e26\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u975e\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5f15\u8a00\u4e4b\u540e\u5206\u4e3a\u5982\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206:\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\u56de\u987e\u548c\u6279\u8bc4\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u903b\u8f91\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u7b2c\u56db\u90e8\u5206\u754c\u5b9a\u4e86\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6b65\u9aa4\u4e0e\u539f\u5219\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e94\u90e8\u5206\u5219\u7528\u4e24\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6765\u5c55\u793a\u5982\u4f55\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u516d\u90e8\u5206\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u603b\u7ed3\u548c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span>\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7b80\u77ed\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n


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\u4e8c\u3001<\/strong>\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u4e0e\u6279\u8bc4<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u666e\u53ca\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u53d6\u5e26\u6709\u6d53\u539a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u8272\u5f69\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u57fa\u4e8e\u76f4\u89c9\u5173\u6ce8\u51fa\u73b0\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u7a81\u51fa\u6216\u8005\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ea6\u7ff0<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u5bc6\u5c14<\/span>(John Stuard Mill)<\/span>\u7684\u6c42\u540c\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u8bd5\u56fe\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u5171\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u56fd\u5bb6\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u9009\u53d6\u90a3\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u8f83\u4e3a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u6770\u514b<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6208\u5fb7\u65af\u901a<\/span>(Jack Goldstone)<\/span>\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u9769\u547d\u6216\u5d29\u6e83\u65f6\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u53ea\u9009\u62e9\u7206\u53d1\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u6216\u56fd\u5bb6\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6ce2\u7279<\/span>(Michael Porter)<\/span>\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u6210\u529f\u5b66<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u51fa\u7248\u8f83\u665a\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u5404\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4f18\u52bf\u65f6\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u53ea\u9009\u53d6\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5728\u6218\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u529f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u7279\u5b9a\u5355\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u906d\u5230\u4e86\u8bf8\u591a\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u6700\u521d\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u6765\u81ea\u5bf9\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u53ea\u9009\u62e9\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6c42\u540c\u6cd5\u5bb9\u6613\u5938\u5927\u7279\u5b9a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5171\u6027<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u67d0\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u5b66\u5c06\u4f1f\u4eba\u7684\u6210\u529f\u7ecf\u5386\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u53d7\u5230\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u4e86\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c2\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u9650\u5236\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u96be\u5bdf\u89c9\u548c\u907f\u514d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee<\/span>:<\/span>\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u4eba\u4e3a\u64cd\u7eb5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u516c\u5f00\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u5229\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5220\u9664\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c<\/span>;<\/span>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u56de\u5230\u8d77\u70b9\u53bb\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7ade\u4e89\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee<\/span>(survivorship bias)\u201d<\/span>\u800c\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u4e1a\u4e2d\u56e0\u7834\u4ea7\u800c\u6d88\u5931\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u3002\u67e5\u5c14\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u8482\u5229<\/span>(Charles Tilly)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u56de\u6eaf\u6027<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u9009\u53d6\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u5728<\/span>19<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u548c<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u897f\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b58\u5728\u751f\u5b58\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4e2d\u88ab\u6dd8\u6c70\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b64\u540e\u7684\u591a\u6570\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u6b63\u53cd\u6848\u4f8b\u76f8\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u7814\u7a76\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u90fd\u5728\u5171\u540c\u4f7f\u7528\u6c42\u540c\u548c\u6c42\u5f02\u6cd5\u3002\u5df4\u6797\u987f<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6469\u5c14<\/span>(Barrington Moore)<\/span>\u7528\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\uff0c\u7528\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6848\u4f8b\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u6b63\u53cd\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u9610\u8ff0\u571f\u5730\u548c\u519c\u6c11\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6240\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u5e15\u7279\u5357<\/span>(Rober Putnam)<\/span>\u5bf9\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5c31\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5bf9\u5357\u5317\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u548c\u5357\u5317\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u6c42\u540c\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u5386\u53f2\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8bf8\u591a\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u5174\u8d77\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4e24\u7ec4\u6b63\u9762\u548c\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6279\u8bc4\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u7684\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee<\/span>(sampleselection bias)<\/span>\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5bf9\u603b\u4f53\u548c\u6837\u672c\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u975e\u968f\u673a\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u65e0\u6cd5\u6b63\u786e\u4f30\u8ba1\u603b\u4f53\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002\u5728<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa<\/span>80<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u524d\u540e\uff0c\u8a79\u59c6\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u8d6b\u514b\u66fc<\/span>(James Heckman)<\/span>\u7b49\u4eba\u5bf9\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u9610\u8ff0\u3002\u5728\u5bf9\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u8fdb\u884c\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u63d0\u51fa\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u907f\u514d\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5ffd\u89c6\u800c\u9020\u6210\u6837\u672c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7ea6\u745f\u592b<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u4f11\u4f0a\u7279<\/span>(Joseph Hewittand)<\/span>\u548c\u52a0\u91cc<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u683c\u5c14\u5179<\/span>(Gary Goertz)<\/span>\u5219\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u754c\u5b9a\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ee5\u5404\u79cd\u9690\u853d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u60f3\u8981\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e92\u76f8\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5e26\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u65b9\u5f0f\u5206\u6790\u5371\u673a\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u82ad\u82ad\u62c9<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u683c\u8fea\u65af<\/span>(Barbara Geddes)<\/span>\u660e\u786e\u63d0\u5230\u4e0d\u80fd\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u52b3\u5de5\u538b\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u622a\u65ad\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u9ad8\u4f30<\/span>:<\/span>\u5f53\u7ed9\u51fa\u5168\u4f53\u6837\u672c\u800c\u975e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u540e\uff0c\u52b3\u5de5\u538b\u5236\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u5c31\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\u4e86\u3002\u52a0\u91cc<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u91d1<\/span>(Gary King)<\/span>\u3001\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u57fa\u6b27\u6c49<\/span>(Robert O.Keohane)<\/span>\u548c\u6089\u5c3c<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u97e6\u5c14\u5df4<\/span>(Sidney Verba)<\/span>\u5728\u5176\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e2d\u540c\u6837\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u53ea\u6709\u5927\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u624d\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u5ffd\u89c6\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u53d6\u6837\u6807\u51c6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5e94\u5f53\u4f7f\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u7c7b\u53d9\u8ff0\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5bb9\u6613\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5730\u5047\u5b9a\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540c\u8d28\u6027\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u5fc5\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c06\u5176\u5305\u542b\u5728\u5185\u4e14\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u96c6\uff0c\u800c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6837\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83<\/span>(broadercomparisons)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u662f\u56f4\u7ed5\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u6837\u672c\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u52a0\u91cc<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u91d1\u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u5021\u8bae\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u6837\u672c\u6570\u91cf\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u6279\u8bc4\u53e4\u5178\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5148\u9a8c\u5730\u5047\u5b9a\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5355\u5143\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u6216\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u884c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u6837\u672c\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u603b\u4f53\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u8fc7\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u6837\u672c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5c06\u8bb8\u591a\u65e0\u5173\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u8a79\u59c6\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u9a6c\u5965\u5c3c<\/span>(James Mahoney)<\/span>\u548c\u52a0\u91cc<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u845b\u5c14\u5179\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u540c\u6837\u4e0d\u662f\u6837\u672c\u6570\u91cf\u591a\u591a\u76ca\u5584\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u9075\u5faa\u8303\u56f4\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u539f\u5219\u6765\u533a\u5206\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u6392\u9664\u90a3\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u672c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u6216\u7406\u8bba\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u5f3a\u8c03\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u4e24\u79cd\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u5e7f\u53d7\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u5728\u4ea8\u5229<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u5e03\u5170\u8fea<\/span>(Henry Brandy)<\/span>\u548c\u6234\u7ef4<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u79d1\u5229\u5c14<\/span>(David Collier)<\/span>\u4e3b\u7f16\u7684\u300a\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9488\u5bf9\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u53cd\u9a73\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9\u662f\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u52a0\u91cc<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u91d1\u7b49\u4eba\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5938\u5927\u4e86\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u903b\u8f91\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u6545\u800c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e9a\u5386\u5c71\u5927<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u4e54\u6cbb<\/span>(Alexander George)<\/span>\u548c\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u73ed\u7eb3\u7279<\/span>(Andrew Bennett)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u52a0\u91cc<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u91d1\u7b49\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u5728\u4e8e\u5c06\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u89c6\u4e3a\u589e\u52a0\u6837\u672c\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6ce8\u91cd\u7279\u5b9a\u5386\u53f2\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6ce8\u91cd\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u6234\u7ef4<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u79d1\u5229\u5c14\u548c\u8a79\u59c6\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u9a6c\u5965\u5c3c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ea6\u7ff0<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u683c\u6797<\/span>(John Gerring)<\/span>\u540c\u6837\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u5f53\u5728\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u548c\u7ef4\u6301\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u6743\u8861\uff0c\u5728\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u548c\u5e7f\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u6743\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e5f\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u6848\u4f8b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u5c3d\u76f8\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u6837\u672c\u6216\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u8fea\u5b89<\/span>(Douglas Dion)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ec5\u9009\u62e9\u51fa\u73b0\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6570\u636e\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5e94\u5f53\u88ab\u5141\u8bb8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bc6\u5c14\u7684\u6c42\u540c\u6cd5\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u68c0\u9a8c\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6770\u68ee<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u897f\u8d56\u7279<\/span>(Jason Seawright)<\/span>\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u683c\u6797\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u603b\u7ed3\u51fa\u4e86\u4e03\u79cd\u6848\u4f8b\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>:<\/span>\u5178\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u3001\u591a\u6837\u5316\u6848\u4f8b\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u6848\u4f8b\u3001\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u6027\u6848\u4f8b\u3001\u6700\u5927\u76f8\u4f3c\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u6700\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u800c\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6bd4\u5947<\/span>(Derek Beach)<\/span>\u548c\u62c9\u65af\u9a6c\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u4f69\u5fb7\u68ee<\/span>(Rasmus Pedersen)<\/span>\u5219\u63d0\u51fa\u8981\u6839\u636e\u4e09\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u7684\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u68c0\u9a8c\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u5efa\u7acb\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u7ed3\u679c\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u76ee\u7684\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4ec5\u4ece\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u603b\u7ed3\u5171\u6027\uff0c\u5230\u9010\u6e10\u8f6c\u5411\u6b63\u8d1f\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u548c\u5f3a\u8c03\u5927\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3002\u5728\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u4e24\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u4e4b\u4e89<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u5f3a\u8c03\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u8981\u6839\u636e\u6837\u672c\u7279\u5f81\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u7684\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u6743\u8861\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4ee5\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5728\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4ecd\u65e7\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0e\u673a\u5236\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6765\u53d1\u73b0\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8131\u8282\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u672c\u6587\u8bd5\u56fe\u5728\u524d\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0a\u8ff0\u56f0\u5883\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e09\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u903b\u8f91<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u89c6\u4e3a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u9769\u547d\u6027\u5267\u53d8\uff0c\u5f53\u4eca\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u548c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u603b\u4f1a\u5f3a\u8c03\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5305\u62ec\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u5185\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u6b64\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u635f\u5bb3\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5ffd\u89c6\u56e0\u7d20\u8fd8\u662f\u5ffd\u89c6\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u540c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u5e94\u5f53\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0<\/span>\/<\/span>\u672a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u6b63\u8d1f\u6848\u4f8b\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u5373\u89e3\u51b3\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u662f\u5bfb\u627e<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span>(contrast space)\u201d<\/span>\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5728\u4e8e\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f3a\u8c03<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u8fd8\u8981\u9009\u62e9\u90a3\u4e9b<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5b58\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u56e0\u4e3a\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u673a\u5236\u4e2d\u6b62\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u672a\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\u5dee\u5f02\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u6b63\u53cd\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u53cd\u5dee\uff0c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u5219\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u90a3\u4e9b\u63a5\u8fd1\u4f46\u672a\u5b9e\u73b0\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u6cd5\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u90a3\u4e9b\u539f\u672c\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u5b9e\u73b0\u9ad8\u589e\u957f\u5374\u6ca1\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u3001\u6700\u7ec8\u9677\u5165<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u9677\u9631<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u663e\u7136\u6bd4\u9009\u53d6\u4e00\u4e9b\u524d\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u90e8\u843d\u6216\u8005\u5931\u8d25\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b14\u8005\u7528\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u5e45\u56fe\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u548c\u9610\u8ff0<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u8bc1\u660e\u5355\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>X<\/span>\u662f<\/span>Y<\/span>\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u800c<\/span>X<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Y<\/span>\u7684\u6700\u5927\u53d6\u503c\u90fd\u662f<\/span>1<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u56fe<\/span>1a<\/span>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u51fa\u65e0\u6570\u6761\u76f4\u7ebf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u6216\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u70b9<\/span>A(X=1,Y=1)<\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5206\u6790\u8005\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3<\/span>X<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Y<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9009\u62e9<\/span>(<\/span>\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u9009\u62e9\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>)<\/span>\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u65e0\u6570\u6761\u76f4\u7ebf\u7a7f\u8fc7\u8be5\u70b9\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1<\/span>X<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Y<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u659c\u7387\u3002\u800c\u5728\u56fe<\/span>1b<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u7c7b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u70b9<\/span>A(X=1,Y=1)<\/span>\u548c<\/span>B(X=0,Y=0)<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9009\u53d6\u8bb8\u591a\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e<\/span>A<\/span>\u548c<\/span>B<\/span>\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e24\u4e2a\u70b9\u6765\u786e\u7acb\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u6b64\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f3a\u8c03\u6b63\u8d1f\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u8f83\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u7684\uff0c\u4ecd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u8bf8\u591a\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982<\/span>X<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Y<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u70b9<\/span>B<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u5236\u4ece\u672a\u542f\u52a8\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5b83\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u975e\u5e38\u5fae\u5f31\u3002\u4e3a\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u589e\u52a0\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u56fe<\/span>1c<\/span>\u5728\u56fe<\/span>1b<\/span>\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>C(X=0.5,Y=0.5)<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u6587\u6240\u8ff0\u7684\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6848\u4f8b\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30<\/span>:<\/span>\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ece\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>C<\/span>\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u67d0\u79cd\u5012<\/span>U<\/span>\u578b\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u70b9\u540c\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4e00\u6761\u7ebf\u4e0a\u65f6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u5f3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6<\/span>;<\/span>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>A<\/span>\u548c\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>C<\/span>\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4ece\u6b63\u53cd\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u6781\u5927\u5730\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u673a\u5236\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u8bba\u4e2d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5f3a\u8c03<\/span>Y0<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Y1<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u6027\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u6cd5\u5b58\u5728\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u5438\u6536\u4e86\u6a21\u7cca\u96c6\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u8c31\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u673a\u5236\u66f4\u52a0\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u7c7b\u5f80\u5f80\u8fc7\u591a\u5730\u5f3a\u8c03\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86<\/span>0<\/span>\u548c<\/span>1<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8c31\u7cfb\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u67e5\u5c14\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u62c9\u91d1<\/span>(Charles Ragin)<\/span>\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u6240\u5c5e\u7684\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u96c6\u5408\u3002\u4ece\u6b63\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u5230\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u964d\u4f4e\u64cd\u4f5c\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u66f4\u5177\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u5728\u7814\u7a76<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e0a\u534a\u53f6\u4e1c\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b0\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6469\u5c14\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u65e5\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u8f83\u5f31<\/span>(X=0)<\/span>\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6<\/span>(Y=1)<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u65e5\u672c<\/span>(X=1)<\/span>\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u73b0<\/span>(Y=0)<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u52a0\u5165\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u671d\u9c9c\u534a\u5c9b<\/span>(X=0.5)<\/span>\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u6700\u7ec8\u53ea\u90e8\u5206\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6<\/span>(Y=0\/1)<\/span>\u3002\u897f\u8fbe<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u65af\u8003\u5207\u6ce2<\/span>(Theda Skocpol)<\/span>\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u793e\u4f1a\u9769\u547d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u53d8\u91cf\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u5b9a\u5e8f\u8d4b\u503c\uff0c\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u5bfb\u627e\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span>35<\/span>\u65af\u8003\u5207\u6ce2\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u662f\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u9769\u547d\u6216\u8005\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u65f6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5904\u4e8e\u4e2d\u95f4\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0d\u80fd\u591f\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u9769\u547d\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u52a8\u4e71\u8ff9\u8c61\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba<\/span>18<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u6539\u9769\u65f6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e34\u8fd1\u6210\u529f\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u6cd5\u56fd<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5c31\u5c24\u4e3a\u7a81\u51fa\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c<\/span>(data-setobservation)<\/span>\uff0c\u6234\u7ef4<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u79d1\u5229\u5c14\u7b49\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c<\/span>(causal-process observations)<\/span>\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u60c5\u5883\u3001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u79d1\u5229\u5c14\u7b49\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4ed4\u7ec6\u7b5b\u9009\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u533a\u5206\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5c55\u73b0\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u68c0\u9a8c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5047\u8bf4\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6548\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b83\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u800c\u975e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u7ec4\u6210\u4e86\u4e8b\u4ef6\u94fe\uff0c\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5220\u9664\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u6240\u6709\u540e\u7eed\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u6240\u5305\u542b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6b63\u53cd\u6848\u4f8b\u68c0\u9a8c\u7279\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002\u5982\u8868<\/span>1<\/span>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u5bc6\u5c14\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span>(<\/span>\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5171\u540c\u4f7f\u7528\u6c42\u540c\u6cd5\u548c\u6c42\u5f02\u6cd5<\/span>)<\/span>\u6765\u5f3a\u5316\u5bf9\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u5728\u521d\u59cb\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5404\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61<\/span>(<\/span>\u53cd\u4e4b\u5219\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u53ef\u6bd4\u6027<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u6c42\u540c\u6cd5\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u77e5\uff0c<\/span>X<\/span>\u4e0d\u4e3a<\/span>0<\/span>\u65f6\u8be5\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u624d\u4f1a\u88ab\u90e8\u5206\u542f\u52a8\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u95f4\u9636\u6bb5\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u6700\u7ec8\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u77e5\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5f53<\/span>X=1<\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u624d\u591f\u88ab\u5b8c\u5168\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6700\u7ec8\u9636\u6bb5\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u8d1f\u9762\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8868<\/span>1<\/span>\u540c\u6837\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u6709\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u6355\u6349\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u4e3a\u5145\u5206\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5229\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u6240\u8574\u542b\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u72b6\u6001<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u6bd4\u4f20\u7edf\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e00\u79cd\u5171\u53d8\uff0c\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(<\/span>\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0e\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>)<\/span>\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6240\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u673a\u5236\u66f4\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5373\u8ba4\u5b9a\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u673a\u5236\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u8fc7\u91cf\u751f\u957f\u7d20\u5bf9\u4e8e\u690d\u7269\u7684\u751f\u957f\u62ee\u6297\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>(antagonism)<\/span>\u7684\u673a\u5236\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u63a7\u5236<\/span>:<\/span>\u90a3\u4e9b\u62e5\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7684\u517b\u6599\u548c\u5149\u7167\u7684\u4fa7\u82bd\u4ecd\u7136\u65e0\u6cd5\u751f\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u4e00\u65e6\u9876\u7aef\u4f18\u52bf\u88ab\u89e3\u9664\u540e\uff0c\u4fa7\u82bd\u751f\u957f\u7d20\u6d53\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u751f\u957f<\/span>;<\/span>\u5982\u679c\u518d\u5f80\u9876\u7aef\u52a0\u5165\u5408\u6210\u7684\u751f\u957f\u7d20\uff0c\u4fa7\u82bd\u7684\u751f\u957f\u53c8\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u505c\u6b62\u3002\u4ece\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5728\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u5c55\u793a\u90a3\u4e9b\u53ea\u8fdb\u884c\u5230\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span>\u2014\u2014\u2014<\/span>\u8fd1\u4f3c<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u63a7\u5236\u673a\u5236<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u4f7f\u5176<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u505c\u6ede<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u4e8e\u4e2d\u95f4\u9636\u6bb5<\/span>(<\/span>\u89c1\u8868<\/span>1)\u2014\u2014\u2014<\/span>\u4ece\u800c\u68c0\u9a8c\u5176\u771f\u5b9e\u6027\u3002\u518d\u4ee5\u78b3\u6c27\u5316\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u78b3\u6c27\u5316\u9700\u8981\u4e24\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u5373\u5148\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u5e94<\/span>1<\/span>\u5148\u751f\u6210\u4e2d\u95f4\u4ea7\u7269\u4e00\u6c27\u5316\u78b3<\/span>(CO)<\/span>\uff0c\u518d\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u5e94<\/span>2<\/span>\u751f\u6210\u6700\u7ec8\u4ea7\u7269\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3<\/span>(CO2)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u8be5\u673a\u5236\u7684\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u78b3\u7684\u5316\u5408\u7269\uff0c\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u5219\u662f\u6c27\u6c14\uff0c\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86<\/span>C\u2192CO\u2192CO2<\/span>\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5f53\u6c27\u5316\u53cd\u5e94\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u6c27\u6c14\u91cf\u4e3a<\/span>0<\/span>\u65f6<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c6\u4f5c\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u4ecd\u7136\u662f<\/span>C;<\/span>\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c27\u5316\u673a\u5236\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c27\u6c14\u91cf\u4e0d\u8db3\u800c\u505c\u7559\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u9636\u6bb5\u65f6\uff0c\u78b3\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u71c3\u70e7\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4ea7\u751f<\/span>CO<\/span>\u6216\u8005<\/span>CO<\/span>\u4e0e<\/span>CO2<\/span>\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u6c14\u4f53\uff0c\u5c31\u5c5e\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>;<\/span>\u5f53\u5b58\u5728\u8db3\u91cf\u7684\u6c27\u6c14\u65f6\uff0c\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5373\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u4e3a\u6700\u7ec8\u4ea7\u7269<\/span>CO2<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u4e86\u89e3\u78b3\u6c27\u5316\u7684\u673a\u5236\u65f6\uff0c\u4ec5\u5bdf\u770b\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\uff0c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u4ea7\u7269<\/span>CO<\/span>\u6781\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u673a\u5236\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u5bf9\u4e8e<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u63a7\u5236<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u6b64\u5916\u5b83\u4e5f\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u6c27\u6c14\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5185\u71c3\u70e7\u78b3\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56db\u3001<\/strong>\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u64cd\u4f5c\u89c4\u5219<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u533a\u5206\u548c\u6f84\u6e05\u51e0\u7ec4\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u56fe<\/span>2<\/span>\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u533a\u5206\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u975e\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u533a\u5206\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u9a6c\u5965\u5c3c\u548c\u845b\u5c14\u5179\u63d0\u51fa\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u8303\u56f4\u6761\u4ef6<\/span>(scope condition)\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u5f3a\u8c03\u8981\u9009\u62e9\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u65e0\u5173\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u5426\u5b9a\u6216\u80af\u5b9a\u7406\u8bba\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u5e72\u6270\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002<\/span>45<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u533a\u5206\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0e\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(deviant case)\u201d<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u533a\u5206\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e3d\u8d1d\u5361<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u57c3\u7c73<\/span>(Rebecca Emigh)<\/span>\u5c06\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u9884\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/span>46<\/span>\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u6f84\u6e05\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u533a\u5206\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>)<\/span>\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u6216\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0d\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u6784\u6210\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5728\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u533a\u5206\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4e0d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u90fd\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f<\/span>:<\/span>\u524d\u8005\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u53d1\u751f\u9769\u547d<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u5219\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u9769\u547d<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\u5728\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u51fa\u73b0\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\u6982\u7387\u6781\u4f4e\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e09\u7ec4\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u533a\u5206\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u533a\u5206\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u5728\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u533a\u5206\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u7531\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236<\/span>\/<\/span>\u8def\u5f84\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u672c\u6587\u6240\u8981\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u7b2c\u56db\u79cd\u533a\u5206<\/span>(<\/span>\u5373\u5728\u692d\u5706\u5f62\u4e2d\u6240\u5305\u542b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0e\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u542b\u4e49\u63a5\u8fd1\u7ea6\u7ff0<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u683c\u6797\u5bf9<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(pathway case)\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u5373\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u6761\u4ef6\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>X<\/span>\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>Y<\/span>\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81f3\u5c11\u5c55\u793a\u4e00\u6761\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u88ab\u89c6\u4f5c<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u67d0\u9879\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u62ee\u6297\u5242<\/span>)<\/span>\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u673a\u5236\u90e8\u5206\u63a8\u8fdb\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u5b8c\u5168\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u5b9a\u4e49\u63a5\u8fd1\u683c\u6797\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f71\u54cd\u6027\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(influential case)\u201d<\/span>\u3002\u5b83\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u5f53\u5145\u5206\u7406\u89e3\u7279\u6b8a\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u73af\u5883\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6311\u6218\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5185\u6838\u3002\u4ece\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u673a\u5236\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u5883<\/span>(context)<\/span>\u4e0b\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u6027\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u7531\u4e8e\u8ffd\u6c42\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7b80\u7ea6\u6027\u7b49\u539f\u56e0\u800c\u4e0d\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6781\u7aef\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u7ec6\u81f4\u8003\u5bdf\u65f6\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u652f\u6301\u800c\u975e\u8bc1\u4f2a\u7406\u8bba\u6240\u5ba3\u79f0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u9075\u5faa\u4e86\u56fe<\/span>2<\/span>\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u9996\u5148\u901a\u8fc7\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5206\u79bb\u51fa\u90a3\u4e9b\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u5927\u81f4\u9075\u5faa\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u6b65\u9aa4\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b65\u9aa4<\/span>1:<\/span>\u786e\u7acb\u7406\u8bba\u9002\u7528\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u603b\u4f53<\/span>(population)<\/span>\u3002\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6837\u672c\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u57fa\u4e8e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u60c5\u5883\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u800c\u65f6\u7a7a\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u662f\u4fdd\u8bc1\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5bf9\u5404\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u6587\u5316\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u5730\u7406\u6982\u5ff5\u5b58\u5728\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u6545\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u53e4\u4ee3\u7684\u6d77\u6743\u6765\u7c7b\u6bd4\u5f53\u4ee3\u7684\u6d77\u6743\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982\u65af\u8003\u5207\u6ce2\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9769\u547d\u7406\u8bba\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u53cd\u9a73\u5979\uff0c<\/span>34<\/span>\u800c\u5979\u672c\u4eba\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c06\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u7528\u4e8e<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u4f0a\u6717\u7b49\u56fd\u3002\u591a\u6570\u5173\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u63cf\u7ed8\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u53d6\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u88c1\u526a\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5404\u7c7b\u4ee5\u504f\u6982\u5168\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4ec5\u9009\u62e9\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u9769\u547d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5947\u8ff9\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u5728\u9650\u5b9a\u5177\u4f53\u65f6\u7a7a\u8303\u56f4\u540e<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u4e24\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6b27\u6d32<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u5c31\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u754c\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u4e0d\u96be\u907f\u514d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u56f4\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u9700\u8981\u533a\u5206\u5176\u6240\u5305\u542b\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8d77\u6b62\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8d77\u6b62\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u540c\u6837\u9700\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4ee5\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u6216\u8005\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u5f0f\u7684\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u521d\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5148\u671f\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53d8\u5f97\u5fae\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u7ed3\u675f\u72b6\u6001\u5219\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7279\u5b9a\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5904\u4e8e\u81f3\u5c11\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6837\u672c\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u9700\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8d77\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u800c\u975e\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u5178\u578b\u7684\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u7ecf\u5178\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5e78\u5b58\u8f70\u70b8\u673a<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d77\u98de\u4e4b\u524d\u800c\u975e\u8fd4\u822a\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u8f70\u70b8\u673a\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u624d\u662f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec8\u7ed3\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u754c\u5b9a\u540c\u6837\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65e6\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u672c\u8eab\u5305\u542b\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u540c\u6837\u662f\u5b9a\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u6258\u9a6c\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6bd4\u5bbe\u65af\u57fa<\/span>(Thomas Pepinsky)<\/span>\u7528<\/span>\u201c1997<\/span>\u5e74\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u524d\u540e\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u5426\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u5c31\u6bd4\u8a79\u68ee<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u5e03\u6717\u5229<\/span>(Jason Brownlee)<\/span>\u7528<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u5426\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u8981\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e25\u8c28\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u524d\u8005\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8003\u5bdf\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u51fa\u73b0\u540e\u6570\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u5bf9\u66f4\u8fdc\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u5219\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u66f4\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u4f5c\u8005\u5f53\u65f6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u57c3\u53ca\u5c31\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u51fa\u7248\u56db\u5e74<\/span>(2011<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>)<\/span>\u540e\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b65\u9aa4<\/span>2:<\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u4f7f\u5f97\u591a\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u3002\u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u6837\u672c\u603b\u4f53\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5408\u7406\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u5728\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u4e5f\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u591a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u91c7\u7528\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u786e\u4fdd\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u3002\u4ee5\u53cc\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>X1<\/span>\u4e0e<\/span>X2<\/span>\u662f\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>Y<\/span>\u51fa\u73b0\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5728\u6b65\u9aa4<\/span>1<\/span>\u4e2d\u6240\u9650\u5b9a\u7684\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u90fd\u843d\u5165\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5355\u5143\u4e4b\u5185\uff0c\u5373\u8868<\/span>2<\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>1\u20144<\/span>\u90fd\u662f\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u7b26\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>4\u20148<\/span>\u5219\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u5b58\u5728\u8fc7\u591a\u504f\u79bb\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u6216\u8005\u8303\u56f4\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u60c5\u5883\u548c\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u603b\u4f53\u7b26\u5408\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u7b26\u5408\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u533a\u5206\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u5728\u8868<\/span>2<\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>1\u20144<\/span>\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>1<\/span>\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>2\u20144<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u845b\u5c14\u5179\u548c\u9a6c\u5965\u5c3c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>4<\/span>\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u90fd\u4e3a<\/span>0<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>2<\/span>\u548c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>3<\/span>\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u800c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>4<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7b26\u5408<\/span>\/<\/span>\u504f\u79bb\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6216\u524a\u5f31\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002\u5c31\u6848\u4f8b\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>1<\/span>\u3001\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>2<\/span>\u548c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>3<\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4f5c\u7528\u8f83\u5f3a<\/span>(<\/span>\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u540c\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>4<\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u65e0\u6cd5\u6216\u8005\u53ea\u80fd\u5fae\u5f31\u5730\u589e\u5f3a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u6216\u68c0\u9a8c\u673a\u5236\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>4<\/span>\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6fc0\u53d1\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9020\u6210\u673a\u5236\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6781\u4f4e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u673a\u5236\u5bf9\u9ad8\u798f\u5229\u793e\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u8981\u6392\u9664\u90a3\u4e9b\u6781\u5ea6\u8d2b\u7a77\u4e14\u8d44\u6e90\u532e\u4e4f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u9ad8\u798f\u5229\u793e\u4f1a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6b65\u9aa4<\/span>3:<\/span>\u7b5b\u9009\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5f88\u96be\u771f\u5b9e\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u65e0\u6cd5\u533a\u5206\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u662f\u5426\u57fa\u4e8e\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u6216\u8d1f\u5411\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53ea\u80fd\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u5730\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u7bb1\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ec5\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u6052\u5e38\u8054\u7ed3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u51fa\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u65e9\u671f\u897f\u65b9\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u7cbe\u795e\u75c5\u4eba\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u7f6a\u72af\u6570\u91cf\u6bd4\u503c\u5927\u81f4\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7cbe\u795e\u5931\u8861\u662f\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5219\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u5931\u8c03\u548c\u72af\u7f6a\u4e8c\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5373\u4fbf\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u5f53\u771f\u5b9e\u673a\u5236\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u68c0\u9a8c\u6216\u660e\u6670\u65f6\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u7591\u95ee\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bfb\u627e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u9700\u8981\u4ee5\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u5c55\u73b0\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5728\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5ba1\u89c6\u56e0\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u548c\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7814\u7a76\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u51fa\u5177\u6709\u5171\u6027\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u5dee\u5f02\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\u8fd8\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u4f3c\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5173\u952e\u8282\u70b9<\/span>(criticalconjuncture)<\/span>\u7684\u5171\u6027\uff0c\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u5173\u952e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u5305\u542b\u80fd\u591f\u8bf4\u660e\u6838\u5fc3\u673a\u5236\u8fd0\u8f6c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u80fd\u591f\u660e\u786e\u7504\u522b\u90a3\u4e9b\u5173\u4e8e\u6838\u5fc3\u673a\u5236\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5728\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u548c\u53d1\u73b0\u5171\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u94fe\u6761\u4e0e\u73af\u8282\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u53d8\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u7cca\u96c6\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u5373\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u4ece<\/span>\u201cY=0\u2192Y=0.5\u2192Y=1\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5c06\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u89c6\u4f5c\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>(Y=1)<\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u524d\u671f\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u52a8\u5458\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c6\u4f5c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u6e10\u53d8\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span>:<\/span>\u901a\u5e38\u5148\u6709\u89c2\u5ff5\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u51c6\u5907\u9636\u6bb5\u6216\u52a8\u5458\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7ecf\u5386\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6597\u4e89\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u521b\u7acb\u548c\u5ef6\u7eed\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5404\u7c7b\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6240\u8d77\u5230\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u53d1\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u78b3\u6c27\u5316\u7684\u673a\u5236\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u8bf8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u540c\u6837\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u7c7b\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6c27\u6c14\u5728\u78b3\u6c27\u5316\u4e2d\u8d77\u5230\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u7d20\u5f80\u5f80\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6216\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\u4e0a\u5448\u73b0\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u8f85\u52a9\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u65e0\u5173\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d77\u5230\u52a0\u901f\u6216\u8005\u51cf\u7f13\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6c27\u5316\u53cd\u5e94\u4e2d\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u548c\u50ac\u5316\u5242\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b65\u9aa4<\/span>4:<\/span>\u9009\u62e9\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u540c\u56e0\u7d20\u6027\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u540c\u6837\u9700\u8981\u52a0\u5165\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4ee5\u8003\u5bdf\u90a3\u4e9b<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u88ab\u4e2d\u6b62\u7684\u673a\u5236<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5728\u6b63\u8d1f\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u9009\u53d6\u903b\u8f91\u4e0e\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b9\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u90e8\u5206<\/span>:<\/span>\u5728\u524d\u534a\u90e8\u5206\u673a\u5236\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u4e0e\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684<\/span>;<\/span>\u540e\u534a\u90e8\u5206\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u4e2d\u6b62<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0a\u9020\u6210\u540c\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5f3a\u8c03\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8def\u5f84\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u5bdf\u770b\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e2d\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7f3a\u5931\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5bdf\u770b\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e2d\u95f4\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5728\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u6291\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u65f6\u5e38\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7504\u522b\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u6587\u6240\u8ff0\u7684\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6ca1\u6709\u83b7\u5f97\u6700\u7ec8\u4ea7\u7269<\/span>CO2<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u4ea7\u7269<\/span>CO<\/span>\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9009\u53d6\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5c06\u6218\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4e3a\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(<\/span>\u5e76\u672a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4ec5\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5c42\u9762<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u98ce\u5e73\u6d6a\u9759\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u5373\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u66f4\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u662f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5b9a\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5374\u56e0\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u6838\u7981\u5fcc<\/span>(nuclear taboo)\u201d<\/span>\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u5bdf\u770b\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\u6240\u8d77\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e9a\u5386\u5c71\u5927<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u4e54\u6cbb<\/span>(Alexander George)<\/span>\u548c\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u73ed\u7eb3\u7279\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e72\u6d89\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u610f\u5473\u7740\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u90e8\u5206\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\u53d7\u5230\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5e72\u6d89\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u73b0\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u73b0<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u534a\u8d1f\u9762<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u786e\u4fe1\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u673a\u5236\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u673a\u5236\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7ea6\u7ff0<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6b27\u6587<\/span>(John Owen)<\/span>\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u6c11\u4e3b\u8ba4\u77e5\u5bf9\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5236\u5ea6\u6027\u8fa9\u8bba\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u653b\u51fb\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u6765\u963b\u6b62\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5176\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u6b63\u53cd\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u673a\u5236\u6027\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u662f<\/span>1796\u20141798<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u4f7f\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u6301\u6709<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u4e0d\u8981\u53d1\u52a8\u9488\u5bf9\u6cd5\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u6218\u4e89<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u6258\u9a6c\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6770\u6590\u900a<\/span>(ThomasJefferson)<\/span>\u7b49\u4eba\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u4f1a\u65bd\u538b\u5728\u6fd2\u4e34\u6218\u4e89\u65f6\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u8a79\u59c6\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u9ea6\u8fea\u900a<\/span>(James Madison)<\/span>\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u6cd5\u56fd\u7684\u5168\u9762\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u662f<\/span>1803\u20141812<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e24\u56fd\u4e8b\u540e\u770b\u6765\u90fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u56fd\u4f1a\u5e76\u717d\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6258\u9a6c\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6770\u6590\u900a\u7b49\u4eba\u5728\u72ec\u7acb\u6218\u4e89\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u538c\u6076\u5176\u6bcd\u56fd\u82f1\u56fd\u800c\u4e0d\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4f5c\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6c11\u4e3b<\/span>\u2014<\/span>\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u673a\u5236\u88ab\u6291\u5236\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6ca1\u6709\u963b\u6b62\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u82f1\u56fd\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u7ec4\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u9009\u53d6\u8981\u6bd4\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7206\u53d1\u6218\u4e89<\/span>(<\/span>\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>)<\/span>\u8981\u66f4\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6b63\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u5927\u81f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u67e5\u770b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5373\u683c\u6797\u7b49\u4eba\u6240\u8bf4\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f71\u54cd\u6027\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u601d\u8003\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u672a\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u53d8\u91cf\u8d4b\u503c\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u6781\u7aef\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u652f\u6301\u800c\u975e\u524a\u5f31\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u6027\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u6b64\u53d1\u73b0\u88ab\u9057\u6f0f\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6839\u636e\u6258\u9a6c\u65af<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u57c3\u7279\u66fc<\/span>(Thomas Ertman)<\/span>\u5728\u300a\u5229\u7ef4\u5766\u7684\u8bde\u751f\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u8fd1\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u4e39\u9ea6\u5e94\u5f53\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u88ad\u7acb\u5baa\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u7ed3\u679c\u5374\u6210\u4e86\u5b98\u50da\u4e13\u5236\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u770b\u4f3c\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u57c3\u7279\u66fc\u5bf9\u4e39\u9ea6\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8fdb\u884c\u7ec6\u81f4\u8003\u5bdf\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728<\/span>1660<\/span>\u5e74\u4e39\u9ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe\u53d7\u5230\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u548c\u5bf9\u745e\u5178\u6218\u4e89\u5931\u5229\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u88ab\u8feb\u4ece\u4e16\u88ad\u7acb\u5baa\u4e3b\u4e49\u8f6c\u5411\u5b98\u50da\u4e13\u5236\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u6545\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4e39\u9ea6\u89c6\u4f5c\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u8981\u7d20\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e39\u9ea6\u65e9\u671f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u673a\u5236\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0e\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f02\u5e38<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u62d3\u5c55\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u548c\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e94\u3001<\/strong>\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e24\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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 <\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u540e\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u7528\u4e0a\u8ff0\u89c4\u5219\u53bb\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5ba1\u89c6\u300a\u6784\u5efa\u56fd\u5bb6<\/span>:<\/span>\u610f\u5927\u5229\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4ee5\u53ca\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u300b<\/span>(<\/span>\u7b80\u79f0\u300a\u6784\u5efa\u56fd\u5bb6\u300b<\/span>)<\/span>\u548c\u300a\u634d\u536b\u6c11\u4e3b<\/span>:<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e24\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u6b27\u6d32\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u300b<\/span>(<\/span>\u7b80\u79f0\u300a\u634d\u536b\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b<\/span>)<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e24\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u4e24\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f8b\u8bc1\u6765\u5c55\u793a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u4e0e\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u6784\u5efa\u56fd\u5bb6<\/span><\/strong>:<\/span><\/strong>\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u8fd8\u662f\u5355\u4e00\u5236<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279<\/span>(Daniel Ziblatt)<\/span>\u5728\u300a\u6784\u5efa\u56fd\u5bb6\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u7528\u5730\u533a\u6027\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u8054\u90a6\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u6784\u5efa\u5176\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u7ec8\u6784\u5efa\u4e3a\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u8fd8\u662f\u5355\u4e00\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u53ea\u6709\u5177\u5907\u5f3a\u5730\u533a\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u5f3a\u8054\u90a6\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u591f\u6784\u5efa\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u5219\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u5355\u4e00\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u89c1\u8868<\/span>3<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u60c5\u5883\u548c\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u4ece\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5176\u65f6\u7a7a\u8303\u56f4\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u5230\u7684<\/span>1707<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u3001<\/span>1920<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5965\u5730\u5229\u548c<\/span>1993<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c6\u4f5c\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fdd\u80cc\u4e86\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u540c\u8d28\u6027<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5e76\u975e\u91cd\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6545\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u751a\u5fae\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4ece\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b<\/span>(<\/span>\u89c1\u8868<\/span>3)<\/span>\uff0c\u9664\u4e86<\/span>1993<\/span>\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u5916\uff0c\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u57fa\u672c\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5373\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>(<\/span>\u8054\u90a6\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u6027\u5236\u5ea6<\/span>)<\/span>\u540c\u65f6\u4e3a\u5f3a\u65f6\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u624d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u53ea\u6709<\/span>1920<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5965\u5730\u5229\u3001<\/span>1871<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c<\/span>1848<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u745e\u5178<\/span>;<\/span>\u800c\u5728\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u6784\u5efa\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u662f\u5355\u4e00\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u518d\u6b21\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u91cd\u70b9\u5bdf\u770b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u6784\u5efa\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u4ee5\u603b\u7ed3\u4e3a<\/span>:<\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u6784\u5efa\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u4e3b\u4e49\u9700\u6c42<\/span>\u2192<\/span>\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u5ea6\u4f9b\u7ed9<\/span>\u2192<\/span>\u8c08\u5224\u5f62\u6210\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u6b63\u53cd\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7279\u5b9a\u8981\u7d20\u4f7f\u5176\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u51bb\u7ed3\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u5982\u679c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8054\u90a6\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u9700\u6c42<\/span>(<\/span>\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8054\u90a6\u610f\u8bc6<\/span>)<\/span>\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u5c31\u65e0\u4ece\u8c08\u8d77<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u4e39\u9ea6<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u610f\u5927\u5229<\/span>)<\/span>\u7531\u4e8e\u5730\u533a\u5236\u5ea6\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u81ea\u6cbb\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u5173\u952e\u65f6\u523b<\/span>(nationalmoment)<\/span>\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u65b0\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u610f\u5927\u5229\u5728\u5176\u56e0\u679c\u53d9\u4e8b\u4e2d\u4ecd\u7136\u66f4\u52a0\u63a5\u8fd1\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u5927\u91cf\u7bc7\u5e45<\/span>(<\/span>\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6b21\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u636e<\/span>)<\/span>\u7528\u4e8e\u4f50\u8bc1\u548c\u63cf\u7ed8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8d4b\u503c\uff0c\u5373\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6\u8f83\u5fb7\u56fd\u8981\u66f4\u5f31\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u610f\u5927\u5229\u4e3a\u4f55\u66fe\u4e00\u5ea6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6784\u5efa\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u4f46\u662f\u6700\u540e\u672a\u80fd\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53d9\u8ff0\u76f8\u5bf9\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5f02\u5e38\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6<\/span>(1993<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u5236\u5ea6\u91cd\u65b0\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ee5<\/span>1993<\/span>\u5e74\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u91cd\u65b0\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u540c\u6837\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u6027\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8be5\u6848\u4f8b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f02\u5e38\u503c<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u652f\u6301\u4f5c\u8005\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u634d\u536b\u6c11\u4e3b<\/span><\/strong>:<\/span><\/strong>\u8fb9\u7f18\u653f\u515a\u7b56\u7565\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b58\u4ea1<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e54\u74e6\u5c3c<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u5361\u6ce2\u5947<\/span>(Giovanni Capoccia)<\/span>\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u634d\u536b\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9047\u5230\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span>(<\/span>\u5982\u5206\u79bb\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u7eb3\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7b49\u529b\u91cf<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u6311\u6218\u65f6\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u6cbb\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u6765\u634d\u536b\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u5982\u8868<\/span>4<\/span>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u533a\u5206\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6<\/span>:<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e2d\u73b0\u4efb\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u548c\u53cd\u4f53\u5236\u8005\u7684\u6597\u4e89\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u8fdb\u7a0b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u89c2\u70b9\u662f<\/span>:<\/span>\u5728\u906d\u53d7\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u6311\u6218\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u53ef\u4ee5\u56e2\u7ed3\u8fb9\u7f18\u653f\u515a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u5219\u4f1a\u88ab\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6743\u6240\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u6309\u7167\u6b64\u524d\u6240\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u6765\u5ba1\u89c6\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4ece\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u6240\u9009\u6837\u672c\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u8fb9\u754c\u66f4\u4e3a\u6e05\u6670\u548c\u4e25\u5bc6\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u6216\u8005\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u6469\u5c14\u548c\u65af\u8003\u5207\u6ce2\uff0c\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u76f4\u63a5\u5c06\u65f6\u7a7a\u9650\u5236\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u5728\u8be5\u65f6\u7a7a\u9650\u5236\u4e4b\u4e0b\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5168\u6837\u672c\u9009\u53d6<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u4e5f\u5b8c\u5168\u89c4\u907f\u4e86\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4ece\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b<\/span>(<\/span>\u89c1\u8868<\/span>4)<\/span>\uff0c\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf\u5373\u8fb9\u7f18\u653f\u515a\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u53cd\u4f53\u5236\u653f\u515a\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u60c5\u5883\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u53ea\u8ba8\u8bba\u53cd\u4f53\u5236\u653f\u515a\u5b9e\u529b\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u88ab\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u63a5\u7ba1\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u65f6\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u5316\u7684\u610f\u5927\u5229\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd<\/span>;<\/span>\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u5219\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u6311\u6218\u540e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u6d3b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u3001\u82ac\u5170\u3001\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u4ee5\u53ca\u6cd5\u56fd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u5168\u90e8\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\u3002\u518d\u6b21\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u8bf4\u660e\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u7ef4\u6301\u8fd8\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u662f\u540e\u8005\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6311\u6218\u800c\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u7528\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u9610\u8ff0\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5176\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u4ee5\u603b\u7ed3\u4e3a<\/span>:<\/span>\u6781\u5316\u548c\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u653f\u515a\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361<\/span>\u2192<\/span>\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u515a\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u653f\u515a\u8054\u76df\u6784\u6210\u6311\u6218<\/span>\u2192<\/span>\u8054\u76df\u91cd\u7ec4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u90e8\u5206\u653f\u515a\u53db\u53d8<\/span>\u2192<\/span>\u8054\u76df\u5206\u88c2\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u3001\u82ac\u5170\u3001\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5373\u5b83\u4eec\u5c55\u73b0\u7684\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u9047\u5230\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u540c\u6837\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u653f\u515a\u53db\u53d8\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6700\u7ec8\u4ecd\u7136\u901a\u8fc7\u56e2\u7ed3\u8fb9\u7f18\u653f\u515a\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u6839\u636e\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6311\u6218\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u533a\u5206\u3002\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u7528\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u515a\u5728\u4e0b\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5360\u636e\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u5c45\u4e2d\u7684\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u3001\u82ac\u5170\u548c\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u538b\u529b\u540c\u6837\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u53db\u53d8\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u6784\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u6267\u653f\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u56e2\u7ed3\u8fb9\u7f18\u653f\u515a\u4ee5\u53ca\u9650\u5236\u3001\u9547\u538b\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u4fdd\u969c\u4e86\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u7a33\u56fa\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u5219\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u8377\u5170\u3001\u632a\u5a01\u3001\u745e\u5178\u3001\u4e39\u9ea6\u3001\u745e\u58eb\u548c\u82f1\u56fd<\/span>(<\/span>\u6cd5\u56fd\u5219\u4ecb\u4e8e\u8d1f\u9762\u548c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e4b\u95f4<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u6ca1\u6709\u6784\u6210\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u9020\u6210\u6267\u653f\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u4e0e\u53db\u53d8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u57fa\u4e8e\u80fd\u52a8\u8005\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u5bdf\u770b\u5371\u673a\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u4e34\u5371\u53d7\u547d<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u98ce\u5e73\u6d6a\u9759<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u8981\u66f4\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u963b\u6b62\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u524d\u6587\u6240\u8ff0\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u62ee\u6297\u5242<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u8fc7\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u51bb\u7ed3\u6216\u4e2d\u65ad\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u542f\u52a8<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u4e14\u90e8\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005\u53ea\u8ba8\u8bba\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u5a01\u80c1\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>4(<\/span>\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u4e2d\u65ad\u6216\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u7684\u653f\u53d8<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u5728\u5176\u8ba8\u8bba\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5185\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u5173\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\/<\/span>\u7ef4\u7cfb\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u8981\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u673a\u5236\u6216\u6ca1\u6709\u63a7\u5236\u65f6\u7a7a\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

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\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u548c\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u5177\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u8457\u4f5c\u4e4b\u5217\u3002\u5982\u8868<\/span>5<\/span>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u4ece\u65f6\u7a7a\u8303\u56f4\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u8303\u56f4\u9009\u62e9\u66f4\u4e3a\u805a\u7126\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u800c\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdd\u80cc\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5e76\u672a\u6d89\u53ca\u5bf9\u6838\u5fc3\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5bf9\u603b\u4f53\u7ed3\u8bba\u5f71\u54cd\u751a\u5fae\u3002\u5728\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u6848\u4f8b\u5904\u7406\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u5bf9\u4e8e\u60c5\u5883\u548c\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u533a\u5206\u8f83\u4e3a\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4ecd\u7136\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5bf9\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u63cf\u7ed8\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u610f\u5927\u5229\u5728\u5efa\u56fd\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5355\u4e00\u5236\u548c\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u4e4b\u95f4\u6447\u6446\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5219\u7565\u663e\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5176\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f83\u597d\u5730\u4f53\u73b0\u56e0\u7d20\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u591f\u3002\u800c\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u660e\u786e\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0e\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u4e8e\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7b5b\u9009\u548c\u91cd\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u5361\u6ce2\u5947\u5168\u4e66\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u7bc7\u5e45\u90fd\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6765\u8ba8\u8bba\u90a3\u4e9b\u5b58\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u634d\u536b\u5176\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u76f8\u5bf9\u7b80\u7565\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5c55\u73b0\u673a\u5236\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u516d\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e<\/strong>\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4f18\u52bf<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u524d\u6587\u7528\u4e24\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8303\u4f8b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bf4\u660e\u5982\u4f55\u57fa\u4e8e\u673a\u5236\u9009\u62e9\u6848\u4f8b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u6240\u5177\u5907\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u53d6\u3001\u5185\u5916\u6548\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e0e\u65f6\u7a7a\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u9610\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8003\u5bdf\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u9009\u62e9\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5728\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6700\u5177\u4f18\u52bf\u548c\u4fbf\u6377\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6b63\u53cd\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8f83\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u3002\u4ee5\u8868<\/span>2<\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u53cc\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>(<\/span>\u5373<\/span>Y=0)<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>2(X1=1,X2=0)<\/span>\u548c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>3(X1=0,X2=1)<\/span>\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5355\u5355\u5728\u5e03\u5c14\u4ee3\u6570\u4e0a\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u533a\u5206\u7684\u3002\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u540c\u6837\u5b58\u5728\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5dee\u522b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>X1<\/span>\u548c<\/span>X2<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u6570\u7406\u516c\u5f0f\u672c\u8eab\u65e0\u6cd5\u533a\u5206\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2d\u54ea\u4e2a\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u54ea\u4e2a\u662f\u6b21\u8981\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u9009\u62e9\u54ea\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u9762\u4e34\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>2<\/span>\u8fd8\u662f\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>3<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u800c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f83\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u5730\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u3002\u5728\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u5fb7\u56fd<\/span>(<\/span>\u5efa\u7acb\u8054\u90a6\u5236<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u5219\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u662f\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8fd8\u662f\u4e39\u9ea6\u7684\u96be\u9898\u3002\u4ece\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u4e3b\u4e49\u9700\u6c42<\/span>(<\/span>\u5373\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u610f\u8bc6<\/span>)<\/span>\u662f<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u542f\u52a8<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6545\u800c\u9009\u62e9\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u65f6\u5fc5\u987b\u9009\u62e9\u5177\u6709\u5f3a\u8054\u90a6\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u9009\u62e9\u610f\u5927\u5229\u800c\u975e\u4e39\u9ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7b80\u5355\u53d9\u8ff0\u4e86\u610f\u5927\u5229\u66fe\u7ecf\u8bd5\u56fe\u5b9e\u884c\u8054\u90a6\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5730\u533a\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6548\u7387\u800c\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u800c\u4e39\u9ea6\u7b49\u56fd\u5219\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u517c\u987e\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e4b\u4e89\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u90fd\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u6700\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002\u9a6c\u5965\u5c3c\u7b49\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e24\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6837\u672c\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/span>(<\/span>\u5373\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f80\u5f80\u9762\u4e34\u5185\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u4e0d\u80fd\u517c\u987e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8ba4\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u957f\u4e8e\u68c0\u9a8c\u56e0\u679c\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5185\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u957f\u4e8e\u4ea7\u751f\u56e0\u679c\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u5229\u7279\u5c14<\/span>(Daniel Little)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6848\u4f8b\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4f1a\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u679c\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u53d6\u4ee3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u679c\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u53ef\u4ee5\u517c\u987e\u4e24\u79cd\u6548\u5ea6<\/span>\/<\/span>\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u548c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u903b\u8f91\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fc7\u7a0b\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5316\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u63a7\u5236\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u673a\u5236<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u51bb\u7ed3<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u7ec4\u5408\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u518d\u6b21\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u6837\u672c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u65f6\u7a7a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u57fa\u4e8e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u64cd\u7eb5<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u67d0\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf\u8fbe\u5230\u5176\u6700\u5927\u503c\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u51bb\u7ed3\u67d0\u4e9b\u70b9\u7684\u673a\u5236\u4f7f\u5176\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u6700\u4f4e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u91cd\u5199<\/span>(minimal rewrite)\u201d<\/span>\u539f\u5219\u3002\u9a6c\u5965\u5c3c\u7528\u96c6\u5408\u56fe\u6765\u8bba\u8bc1\u5bf9\u4e2d\u95f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6539\u5199\u6700\u7b26\u5408\u8be5\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f<\/span>\/<\/span>\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6700\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u66f4\u7b26\u5408\u8be5\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u63a5\u8fd1\u6210\u529f\u800c\u672a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u65f6\u5c24\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u7a7a\u4e0b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6b63\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u601d\u8003\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u5728\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u591a\u6c11\u65cf\u5e1d\u56fd\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u4e25\u683c\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6b63\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5c31\u4ee5<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u666e\u9c81\u58eb\u9053\u8def<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u800c\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u5965\u5730\u5229\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c6\u4e3a\u534a\u8d1f\u9762\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7a81\u7834\u65f6\u7a7a\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u66f4\u5177\u666e\u904d\u6027\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6784\u5fc5\u987b\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u65f6\u7a7a\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u65f6\u7a7a\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u7a7a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u96be\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u751a\u81f3\u96be\u4ee5\u5bdf\u89c9\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6700\u7ec8\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7406\u8bba\u5fc5\u7136\u88ab\u8bc1\u4f2a\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7ec6\u81f4\u8003\u5bdf\u8fd9\u4e9b<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5f71\u54cd\u6027\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u65f6\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u80af\u5b9a\u548c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8bb8\u591a\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u6700\u521d\u6e90\u4e8e\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u540c\u6837\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u666e\u904d\u6027\u4e0e\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u5173\u4e8e\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u673a\u5236\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53d7\u65f6\u7a7a\u9650\u5236\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u53d8\u5f02<\/span>\u2192<\/span>\u9009\u62e9<\/span>\u2192<\/span>\u9057\u4f20<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u673a\u5236\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u6709\u751f\u7269\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u3002\u4e39<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u65af\u83b1\u7279<\/span>(Dan Slater)<\/span>\u548c\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u9f50\u52c3\u62c9\u7279\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u6bd4\u8f83\u80fd\u591f\u517c\u987e\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u8de8\u8d8a\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9700\u8981\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u5bf9\u65f6\u7a7a\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u63a7\u5236<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u548c\u673a\u5236\u7684<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u51bb\u7ed3<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u8457\u4f5c\u5728\u5176\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u6240\u9690\u542b\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u4e0e\u673a\u5236\u3002\u6258\u514b\u7ef4\u5c14<\/span>(Alexis deTocqueville)<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ce2\u65c1\u738b\u671d\u6539\u9769\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u3001\u4e39<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u65af\u83b1\u7279\u5173\u4e8e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u6743\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u90fd\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8d85\u8d8a\u5176\u6240\u8bba\u8ff0\u65f6\u7a7a\u7684\u6d1e\u89c1\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e03\u3001\u7ed3 \u8bba<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c01\u671f | Review of International Studies  Vol.45, No.4, 2019<\/span><\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c02\u671f | International Relations Vol.33, No.3, 2019<\/span><\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c03\u671f | International Organization Vol.73, No.3, 2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c04\u671f | World Politics, Vol.71, No.4, 2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c05\u671f | European Journal of International Relations<\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f | Security Studies, Vol.28, No.4, 2019<\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c07\u671f | International Secur.ity, Vol 44, No. 2, 2019 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c08\u671f | Cambridge Review of International Affairs,Vol.32,No.4<\/span><\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c09\u671f | International Relations of Asia-Pacific Vol.19,No.3<\/span><\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c10\u671f | International Studies Review, Volume.21, No.3, 2019<\/span><\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c11\u671f | Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 54, No. 4, 2019<\/span><\/a>
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