{"id":15117,"date":"2019-12-11T14:06:28","date_gmt":"2019-12-31T06:17:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/31\/754762ecb3\/"},"modified":"2019-12-31T14:17:24","modified_gmt":"2019-12-31T06:17:24","slug":"754762ecb3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/11\/754762ecb3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c292\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n


<\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Alberto Abadie\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u4e3a\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u662f\u672c\u6587\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\u3002Alexis Diamond\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u5e9c\u7cfb\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u66fe\u5c31\u804c\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u516c\u53f8\uff08International Finance Corporation\uff09\u3002Jens Hainmueller\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u4e3a\u79fb\u6c11\u4e0e\u96be\u6c11\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u4e3a\u7b49<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010<\/span><\/strong>\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u5170\u661f\u8fb0\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u7f16\u8bd1\u5458\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\uff09
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\u3010\u6392\u7248\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\u9ad8\u4f73\u7f8e<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u3010<\/span><\/strong>\u6765\u6e90<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. <\/span>American Journal of Political Science, 59(2), <\/em>495-510.<\/em><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u671f\u520a\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n


<\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u671f\u520a\uff08<\/span>American Journal of Political Science, AJPS<\/span>\uff09\u662f\u521b\u520a\u4e8e<\/span>1957<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7efc\u5408\u7c7b\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u897f\u90e8\u653f\u6cbb\u534f\u4f1a\uff08<\/span>MPSA<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u671f\u520a\u3002<\/span>2018<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a<\/span>4.354<\/span>\uff0c\u5728<\/span>176<\/span>\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u3002<\/span>
<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
Comparative politics and the synthetic control method<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\u5185\u5bb9\u63d0\u8981<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u754c\u9010\u6e10\u5bf9\u642d\u5efa\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u5b9a\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u4e92\u6c9f\u901a\u7684\u6865\u6881\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u8fbe\u6210\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u672c\u6587<\/span>\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/span>\u4e86\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u80fd\u591f\u6c9f\u901a\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5b9a\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\uff08<\/span><\/span>Synthetic Control Methods<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u6bd4\u8f83\u5355\u5143<\/span>(<\/span><\/span>unit<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u5927\u6837\u672c\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u5916\u63a8\u95ee\u9898\uff08<\/span><\/span>extropolation<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e0d\u6392\u9664\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5728\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u8f83\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9a\u91cf\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e24\u5fb7\u7edf\u4e00\u5bf9\u897f\u5fb7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f71\u54cd\u4e3a\u4f8b\u5bf9\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\u6587\u7ae0\u5bfc\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n
\u5982\u4f55\u57fa\u4e8e<\/span>Rubin\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u548c\u96be\u70b9\u3002\u9664\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u3001<\/span>\u5dee\u5206\u6cd5\u3001\u503e\u5411\u503c\u5f97\u5206\u5339\u914d\u3001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u3001\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u5e38\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u5916\uff0c\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u8f83\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u7528\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff08\u4e2d\u6587\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u53c2\u8003\uff1a\u5218\u7532\u708e<\/span>,\u8303\u5b50\u82f1<\/span>.<\/span>\u4e2d\u56fd\u623f\u4ea7\u7a0e\u8bd5\u70b9\u7684\u6548\u679c\u8bc4\u4f30<\/span>:<\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/span>[J].<\/span>\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/span>,2013,36(11):117-135<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8fd8\u6bd4\u8f83\u5c11\u3002\u7279\u7f16\u8bd1\u8fd9\u7bc7<\/span>\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u8f83\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u6587\u732e<\/span>\uff0c\u4f9b\u5404\u4f4d\u5b66\u754c\u540c\u4ec1\u53c2\u8003\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e86\u89e3\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u9664\u53c2\u8003\u672c\u6587\u4e09\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005<\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u5916\uff0c\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u6790\u300b\uff08<\/span><\/span>Political Analysis<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u3001\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ea7\u751f\u8f83\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u7684<\/span>\u6587\u732e\u4e5f\u503c\u5f97\u501f\u9274\uff08<\/span>Xu, Y. (2017). Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models. Political Analysis, 25(1), 57-76. doi:10.1017\/pan.2016.2\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4e00\u3001<\/strong>\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u539f\u7406<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709<\/span>J+1\u4e2a\u5355\u5143\uff08\u5982\u56fd\u5bb6\uff09\u7684\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u4e0d\u5931\u4e00\u822c\u6027\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u5176\u4e2d\u5355\u5143<\/span>j=1<\/span>\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u800c\u5355\u5143<\/span>j=2<\/span>\u5230<\/span>j=J+1<\/span>\u90fd\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u501f\u7528\u533b\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c<\/span>j=1<\/span>\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143<\/span>(<\/span><\/span>treated unit<\/span>)<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u906d\u5230\u5e72\u9884\uff08<\/span><\/span>intervention<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u5355\u5143\u3002\u800c\u5176\u4f59\u7684\u5355\u5143\uff08<\/span>j=2\u2026J+1<\/span>\uff09\u7ec4\u6210\u4e86\u4f9b\u4f53\u6c60\uff08<\/span><\/span>donor pool<\/span>\uff09\uff08\u4e0b\u6587\u5c06\u5176\u7edf\u4e00\u8bd1\u4e3a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u4e5f\u66f4\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4<\/span><\/span>control group<\/span>\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u91cc\u7684<\/span>\u5355\u5143\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8fd1\u4f3c\u5173\u6ce8\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6ca1\u6709\u53d7\u5230\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e0e\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u6709\u7740\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff08<\/span><\/span>structural process<\/span>\uff09\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u53d7\u5230\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u5355\u5143\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u897f\u5fb7\uff0c\u800c\u9009\u53d6\u7684<\/span>\u5176\u4ed6\u7684<\/span>16\u4e2a<\/span>OECD<\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u6210<\/span>\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u6837\u672c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u8861\u9762\u677f\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5355\u5143\u5728\u6574\u4e2a<\/span>T\u65f6\u6bb5\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u90fd\u540c\u65f6\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\uff08<\/span>t=1,\u2026,T<\/span>\uff09\u3002T<\/span>0<\/span><\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c<\/span>T<\/em>1<\/span><\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u5747\u4e3a\u6b63\u6570\uff0c\u603b\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5T\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u548c\u3002\u800c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u4e8e\u6d4b\u91cf\u5e72\u9884\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u601d\u8def\u662f\uff1a\u4e0e\u4f7f\u7528\u5355\u4e2a\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u8fd1\u4f3c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u5355\u5143\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff08\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\uff09\u6765\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3002\u6807\u51c6\u8bed\u8a00\u8868\u8ff0\u4e3a\uff1a\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u7406\u7684<\/span>(J x 1)\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u5411\u91cf<\/span>W<\/span><\/em> <\/span><\/em>=<\/span> <\/span>(<\/span>w<\/span><\/em>2<\/span><\/sub>,…<\/span><\/em>,<\/span><\/em> <\/span><\/em>w<\/span><\/em>J<\/span><\/sub><\/em> <\/span><\/em>+<\/span><\/sub>1<\/span><\/sub>)\u2019\uff080\u2264w<\/span>j<\/span><\/sub>\u22641\uff0c<\/span>w<\/span><\/em>2<\/span><\/sub>+\u2026+<\/span> w<\/span><\/em>J<\/span><\/sub><\/em> <\/span><\/em>+<\/span><\/sub>1<\/span><\/sub>=1\uff09\u6765\u7ec4\u5408\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u3002\u7528X<\/span>1<\/span><\/sub>\u6765\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u5305\u542b\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u524d<\/span>k\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684k\u00d71\u5411\u91cf\uff0c\u7528X<\/span>0<\/span><\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u5305\u542b\u4e0e\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u76f8\u540c\u7684<\/span>k\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684<\/span>J\u4e2a\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u91cc\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u7ec4\u6210\u7684k\u00d7J\u77e9\u9635\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236W<\/span>*<\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97<\/span>X<\/span>1<\/span><\/sub>\u2212<\/span>X<\/span>0<\/span><\/sub>W\u6700\u5c0f\u3002\u627e\u5230\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5148\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span>m=1\uff0c\u2026,k\uff0cX<\/span>1m<\/span><\/sub>\u662f\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u7b2c<\/span>m\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0cX<\/span>0M<\/span><\/sub>\u662f<\/span>1\u00d7J\u7684\uff0c\u5305\u542bJ\u4e2a\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u7b2cm\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5411\u91cf\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u6743\u91cdv<\/span>m<\/span><\/sub>\u6839\u636e\u7b2c<\/span>m\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u8d4b\u4e88\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e0b\u5f0f\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\uff08\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u7684\u6784\u9020\u601d\u8def\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6b27\u6c0f\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u6784\u9020\u4e8c\u6b21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u503c\u6c42\u89e3\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n

\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/span>\u6cd5\uff08<\/span><\/span>cross-validation method<\/span>\uff09\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u6743\u91cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u6743\u91cd\u540e\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span>Yjt<\/span><\/sub>\u4e3a\u5355\u5143<\/span>j\u5728\u65f6\u95f4<\/span>t<\/span>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff08<\/span><\/span>outcome<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u4ee4<\/span>Y<\/span>1<\/span><\/sub>\u4e3a<\/span>T1<\/span><\/sub>\u00d71\u7684\u5305\u542b\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u906d\u5230\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u503c\u7684\u5411\u91cf\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684<\/span>Y0<\/span><\/sub>\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<\/span>T1<\/span><\/sub>\u00d7J\u7684\u5305\u542b\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u7684\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u53d1\u751f\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u503c\u7684\u77e9\u9635\u3002\u5219\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5<\/span>t<\/span>\uff08<\/span>t\u2265T<\/span>0<\/span><\/sub>\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u5bf9\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u4e3a<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n

\u4e09\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/span>Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010)\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8a\u957f\u3001\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u5c31\u8d8a\u80fd\u63a5\u8fd1\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8f68\u8ff9\u3001\u5c31\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u63a7\u5236\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u66f4\u52a0\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u76ee\u524d<\/span><\/span>Stata\u3001R\u3001<\/span>Matlab<\/span>\u8f6f\u4ef6\u90fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u5305\u65b9\u4fbf\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\uff08\u5982<\/span>R<\/span>\u7684<\/span><\/span>Synth\u5305\uff09\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u672c\u6587\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u4e0e\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u76f8\u6bd4\u6709\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u56de\u5f52\u6cd5\u4e5f\u4f7f\u7528\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56de\u5f52\u6cd5\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u4e0d\u80fd\u9650\u5236\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ea\u5173\u5fc3\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u56de\u5f52\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u8d85\u51fa\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\u7684\u5916\u63a8\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>extrapolation<\/span>\uff09\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u5bf9\u56de\u5f52\u5bfc\u81f4\u5916\u63a8\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u8bf4\u660e\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u8003\u539f\u6587\u3002\u601d\u8def\u662f\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u5728\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u56de\u5f52\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c6\u4e3a\u5bf9\u63a7\u5236\u5730\u533a\u505a\u4e86\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u4e5f\u662f\u6743\u91cd\u4e4b\u548c\u4e3a<\/span>1\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u90fd\u5728<\/span>[<\/span><\/span>0,1]\u533a\u95f4\u53d6\u503c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u56de\u5f52\u5bf9\u6743\u91cd\u53d6\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u6ca1\u6709\u52a0\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u56de\u5f52\u6cd5\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u8d1f\u503c\u6216\u8005\u8d85\u8fc7<\/span>1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u8fc7\u5206\u5916\u63a8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4e8c\u3001<\/span>\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u63a8\u65ad<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5373\u4f7f\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e94\u8fc7\u65e9\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u800c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u8fdb\u884c\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5b89\u6170\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>in-time placebos<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u201d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u6548\u679c\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u5e72\u9884\u5e26\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5047\u5b9a\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u524d\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e72\u9884\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5dee\u522b\u4e0d\u5927\u751a\u81f3\u540e\u8005\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u5927\u4e8e\u524d\u8005\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u9519\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c\u7a7a\u95f4\u5185\u5b89\u6170\uff08<\/span><\/span>in-space placebos<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u201d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u4eba\u4e3a\u5730\u5c06\u5e72\u9884\u89c6\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u539f\u6765\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u53d8\u4e3a\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\uff0c\u518d\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5355\u5143\u5927\u591a\u90fd\u662f\u5927\u7684\u805a\u5408\u5355\u5143\uff08<\/span><\/span>aggregate units<\/span>\uff09\u5982\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u533a\u57df\u7b49\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u5355\u4e2a\u5355\u5143\u53ef\u4ee5\u5355\u72ec\u6210\u4e3a\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u7ec4\u5408\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u7684\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d3e\u4e0a\u7528\u573a\u3002\u4f46\u672c\u6587\u63d0\u9192\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e0d\u80fd\u6ee5\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\u5730\u5efa\u7acb\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u906d\u9047\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u8005\u4e0e\u5e72\u9884\u4e8b\u4ef6\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u63a7\u5236\u5355\u5143\u6570\u91cf\u4e0d\u5b9c\u8fc7\u591a\uff0c\u4e14\u5e94\u8be5\u4e0e\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>overfitting<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u957f\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u4fe1\u5ea6\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e72\u9884\u53d1\u751f\u524d\u6bd4\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u9010\u6e10\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u957f\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4e09\u3001<\/strong>\u5e94\u7528\uff1a\u4e24\u5fb7\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u672c<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u672c\u6587\u5e94\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86<\/span>1990\u5e74<\/span>10<\/span>\u6708\u4e24\u5fb7\u5b98\u65b9\u5ba3\u5e03\u7edf\u4e00\u5bf9\u897f\u5fb7\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u653f\u6cbb\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>political integration<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7edd\u4f73\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8bb8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u8bd5\u56fe\u68c0\u9a8c\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u897f\u5fb7\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u672c\u5177\u4f53\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u865a\u62df\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u5408\u6210\u897f\u5fb7\uff0c\u5b9a\u91cf\u4f30\u7b97\u4e86\u7edf\u4e00\u5bf9\u897f\u5fb7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>G<\/span>DP\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86<\/span>1960-2003\u5e74\u5305\u62ec\u897f\u5fb7\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u3001\u4e39\u9ea6\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5185\u7684<\/span>16<\/span>\u4e2a<\/span>O<\/span><\/span>CED\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\u5747<\/span>G<\/span>DP\u3001\u56fd\u5185\u6295\u8d44\u5360<\/span>G<\/span>DP\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3001\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u7684<\/span>25\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u589e\u52a0\u503c\u3001\u4f9b\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u5f00\u653e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u672c\u6587\u9996\u5148\u628a\u7edf\u4e00\u524d\u7684<\/span>1971-1980<\/span>\u5e74\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bad\u7ec3\u671f\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>training period<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u628a<\/span>1981-1990\u5e74\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u671f\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>validation period<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u671f\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u9a8c\u8bc1\u671f\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u5747\u65b9\u8bef\u5dee\uff08<\/span><\/span>root mean square prediction error<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u5411\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6743\u91cd\u8fdb\u884c\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u56de\u5f52\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e24\u5fb7\u7edf\u4e00\u540e\u897f\u5fb7\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u540e\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4e24\u5fb7\u7edf\u4e00\u540e\u897f\u5fb7\u7684\u4eba\u5747<\/span>G<\/span>DP\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u897f\u5fb7\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u53d1\u73b0\u4ece<\/span>1990\u5e74\u5230<\/span>2003<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u897f\u5fb7\u7684\u4eba\u5747<\/span>G<\/span><\/span>DP\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e0b\u964d<\/span>1600\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u7ea6\u4e3a<\/span>1990<\/span>\u5e74\u7684<\/span>8%<\/span>\uff09\uff0c<\/span>2003<\/span>\u5e74\u5408\u6210\u897f\u5fb7\u7684\u4eba\u5747<\/span>G<\/span><\/span>DP\u6bd4\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u7684\u897f\u5fb7\u9ad8<\/span>12%\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n

\u968f\u540e\u4f5c\u8005\u53c8\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u68c0\u9a8c\u5e76\u4e14\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f30\u8ba1\u6743\u91cd\u8fdb\u884c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u53c8\u5220\u9664\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u539f\u6709\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u4e0e\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u76f8\u543b\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
 <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u56db\u3001<\/strong>\u7ed3 \u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
 <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u672c\u6587\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u8f83\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u9009\u62e9\u6837\u672c\u548c\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9a\u91cf\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u6b63\u5982<\/span>Sidney<\/span> Tarrow\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u201c\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u8089\u878d\u5165\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u9aa8\u5934\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/span>qualitative flesh on quantitative bones<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\u672c\u6587\u7531\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u72ec\u5bb6\u7f16\u8bd1\u63a8\u8350<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\u626b\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u67e5\u770b\u5f80\u671f\u7cbe\u5f69<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u9884\u544a\u3011\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u63a8\u51fa\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\u5b66\u672f\u52a8\u6001\u901f\u9012\uff01<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u8282\u70b9\u9632\u5fa1\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u4e0e\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u8054\u76df\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c277\u671f<\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8861\u3011\u4e9a\u5386\u5c71\u5927\u00b7\u6e29\u7279\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5efa\u6784\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c283\u671f<\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u3011\u6c5f\u5fc6\u6069\uff1a\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1a\u53cd\u601d\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5408\u89c4\u4e0e\u6311\u6218\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba    \u7b2c284\u671f<\/a>
<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c09\u671f| International Relations of Asia-Pacific Vol.19,No.3<\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c10\u671f | International Studies Review, Volume.21, No.3, 2019<\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c11\u671f|Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 54, No. 4, 2019<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c12\u671f | International Affairs, Vol.95, No.6\uff0c2019<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u5206\u7c7b\u5bfc\u89c8 1<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u5206\u7c7b\u5bfc\u89c8 2<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u70b9\u201c\u5728\u770b<\/span>\u201d\u7ed9\u6211\u4e00\u6735\u5c0f\u9ec4\u82b1\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\"\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\n

\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\uff09\uff1a\u3010\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5408\u6210\u63a7\u5236\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c292\u671f<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb \u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011Alberto Aba<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[22,31],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15117"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15117"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15117\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15130,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15117\/revisions\/15130"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}