{"id":14946,"date":"2019-09-25T14:05:00","date_gmt":"2019-12-31T06:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/31\/b555d522fd\/"},"modified":"2019-12-31T14:12:11","modified_gmt":"2019-12-31T06:12:11","slug":"b555d522fd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/09\/25\/b555d522fd\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u6cbb\u3011\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u6cbb\u3011\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"
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\u7b80  \u4ecb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>Raymond Hinnebusch<\/span>\u662f\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u5723\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e1c\u3001\u4e2d\u4e9a\u548c\u9ad8\u52a0\u7d22\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u526f\u6240\u957f\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u9662\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u4e2d<\/span>\u4e1c\u5b97\u6d3e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7b49\u3002\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u300a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u300b\u548c\u300a\u4ece\u6539\u9769\u5230\u8d77\u4e49\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u300b\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u66f9\u9e4f\u9e4f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u6768 \u6d0b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u5ba1\u6838<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u674e \u6e90<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span> Raymond Hinnebusch (2006) Authoritarian persistence, democratizationtheory and the Middle East: An overview and critique, Democratization<\/em>, 13:3, 373-395<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

\u3010\u671f\u520a\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u6c11\u4e3b\u89c4\u8303\u3001\u4f53\u5236\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u6587\u5316\u8fb9\u754c\u5185\u548c\u8de8\u56fd\u754c\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u773c\u5149\u7279\u522b\u5173\u6ce8\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u5c31\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a<\/span>1.850<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u6cbb\u3011\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4e1c:\u56de\u987e\u4e0e\u6279\u5224<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Authoritarian persistence, democratization theory and the Middle East: An overview and critique<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Raymond Hinnebusch<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8d64\u5b57\u548c\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6301\u7eed\uff1f\u672c\u6587<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u5a01\u6743\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u56de\u987e\u4e0e\u6279\u5224\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u540e\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u7406\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u5904\u4e8e\u524d\u6cbf\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u4f17\u4eba\u7686\u53f9<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5df2\u7ecf\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u9677\u5165\u6240\u8c13\u6df7\u5408\u6c11\u4e3b\u3001\u534a\u6c11\u4e3b\u6216\u4f2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6743\u7684\u6c99\u783e\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u6587\u5316\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u6216\u591a\u5143\u5316\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6210\u4e3a\u8d70\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u67d0\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u6027\u8fdc\u6bd4\u897f\u65b9\u8bdd\u8bed\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u590d\u6742\u3002\u7d22\u4f26\u68ee\uff08<\/span>Sorensen<\/span>\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5177\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u5c42\u9762\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u6216\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u6cbb\u5e73\u7b49\uff0c\u5373\u5305\u5bb9\u6027\u3002\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u7684\u589e\u5f3a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u5305\u5bb9\u6027\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u9769\u547d\u540e\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u653f\u6743\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u70b9\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u56de\u987e\u548c\u6279\u5224\u5404\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u63a2\u8ba8\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Modernization Theory (MT) and the Requisites of Democratization<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa<\/span>50<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c<\/span>60<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5176\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u8bc6\u5b57\u7387\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u548c\u975e\u519c\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a<\/span>(<\/span>\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u5458\u201d\u6307\u6807<\/span>)<\/span>\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c<\/span>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6587\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u963b\u788d\u5730\u533a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5374\u6781\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e3a\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u6c83\u571f<\/span>\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u540e\u671f\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba<\/span>:\u201c<\/span>\u8f6c\u578b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5931\u8861\u4e0e\u56fd\u65cf\u5efa\u8bbe\u56f0\u5883<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Later Modernization Theory: Imbalances and Nation-Building Dilemmas in\u2018Transitional\u2019 Societies<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u65e9\u671f\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u6b20\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u3002\u65b0\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u969c\u788d\u662f\u5411\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u8fc7\u6e21\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u56fd\u65cf\u5efa\u8bbe\u672a\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u969c\u788d\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u65e9\u671f\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u968f\u610f\u5f3a\u52a0\u9886\u571f\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u76f8\u79f0\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6700\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u96be\u4ee5\u5c31\u653f\u6cbb\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u8fbe\u6210\u57fa\u672c\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u672c\u5171\u8bc6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5185\u4e0d\u540c\u96c6\u56e2\u5728\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u5206\u6b67\u4e0a\u4fdd\u6301\u548c\u5e73\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002\u800c\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u4f7f\u5730\u533a\u56fd\u5bb6\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7eb3\u8d5b\u5c14\u7684\u6cdb\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e3b\u4e49\u547c\u5401\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a8\u5458\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u53cd\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u5411\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u6e21\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fc7\u6e21\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u969c\u788d\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u5458\u7684\u589e\u52a0<\/span>(<\/span>\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8bc6\u5b57\u7387<\/span>)<\/span>\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba4\u540c\u4e0d\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u52a0\u5267\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u522b\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u66ff\u4ee3\u653f\u6cbb\u8def\u5f84<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Social Structure and Alternative Political Paths<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u5df4\u6797\u987f<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6469\u5c14\uff08<\/span>Barrington Moore <\/span>\uff09\u5f00\u521b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4f20\u7edf\uff0c\u88ab\u897f\u8499<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u5e03\u7f57\u59c6\u5229\uff08<\/span> <\/span>Simon Bromley<\/span>\uff09\u548c\u6d77\u59c6<\/span>\u00b7<\/span>\u6208\u8d1d\u5c14\uff08<\/span> Haim Gerber<\/span>\uff09\u7b49\u5b66\u8005\u5e94\u7528\u81f3\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u5206\u6790\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9700\u8981\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u548c\u9636\u7ea7\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002\u5176\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u90e8\u843d\u914b\u957f\u5236\u548c\u541b\u4e3b\u5236\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u8f6f\u5f31\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u9886\u5bfc\u6c11\u4e3b\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u9769\u547d\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u98df\u5229\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08<\/span>rentierism<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u79df\u91d1\u5f52\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u6709\uff0c\u5e76\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5de5\u4f5c\u548c\u798f\u5229\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u8ba1\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u52a8\u5458\u8d77\u6765\u8981\u6c42\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ee3\u8868\u6743\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u56db\uff09\u653f\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u4e0e\u5a01\u6743\u6301\u7eed<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Regime Institutions and Authoritarian Persistence<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u6d3e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u6839\u636e\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u800c\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u53c8\u53d7\u5230\u6240\u7eb3\u5165\u548c\u6392\u9664\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u529b\u91cf\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u9996\u5148\u533a\u5206\u201c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\uff08<\/span>populist authoritarian<\/span>\uff09\u653f\u4f53\u548c\u201c\u5b98\u50da\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\uff08<\/span>bureaucratic authoritarian<\/span>\uff09\u653f\u4f53\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u662f\u4ee5\u6539\u9769\u518d\u5206\u914d\u800c\u5bfb\u6c42\u52a8\u5458\u548c\u5438\u6536\u7fa4\u4f17\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5236\u5ea6\u7c7b\u578b\u662f\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u5c06\u5236\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u7ed3\u6784\u5206\u6790\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7406\u89e3\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5de9\u56fa\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6301\u4e45\u548c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u62b5\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5217\u4e3e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u5730\u7eb3\u5165\u548c\u6392\u9664\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u6253\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u724c<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u4f7f\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u53d6\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u5f97\u5230\u5de9\u56fa\u3002\u5176\u5355\u4e00\u653f\u515a\u5236\u5ea6\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u5411\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u9547\u538b\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u7b2c\u4e94\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6743\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u524a\u5f31\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u53ca\u5176\u6f5c\u5728\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5438\u6536\u4e2d\u4e0b\u5c42\u9636\u7ea7\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u7edf\u4e00\u6218\u7ebf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u4e94\uff09\u540e\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4e0d<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u5e73\u8861<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Po<\/span><\/strong><\/span>s<\/span><\/strong>t-Populist Political Economy and Lopsided Political Liberalization<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u548c\u541b\u4e3b\u5236\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\u90fd\u9762\u4e34\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56f0\u5883\u548c\u5168\u7403\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u538b\u529b\u3002\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0a\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6743\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u540e\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u9636\u6bb5<\/span>(<\/span>PPA<\/span>)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5411\u540e\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u4f7f\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u503e\u5411\u5229\u7528\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u63a7\u5236\u4e3a\u5176\u8c0b\u5229\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u963b\u788d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8981\u6c42\u3002\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u96be\u4ee5\u5728\u8fdd\u80cc\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u793e\u4f1a\u5951\u7ea6\u3001\u727a\u7272\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u8f7b\u6613\u5c06\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8d4b\u4e88\u5927\u4f17\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u5a01\u6743\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u4f7f\u56fd\u5185\u53cd\u5bf9\u529b\u91cf\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u56fd\u5bb6\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u7ef4\u6301\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u540e\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e0b\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u4ecd\u4eab\u6709\u514d\u4e8e\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u65e0\u9650\u671f\u4efb\u671f\uff0c\u5e76\u4fdd\u7559\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4efb\u514d\u6743\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u6216\u9636\u7ea7\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u663e\u9732\u51fa\u6765\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5546\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u793e\u56e2\u63a5\u89e6\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u53f8\u6cd5\u673a\u6784\u6709\u6743\u5b9e\u65bd\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u6cd5\u6cbb\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u65b0\u95fb\u548c\u8a00\u8bba\u81ea\u7531\u6765\u5b89\u629a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b89\u629a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u6c11\u95f4\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u653f\u515a\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u4f46\u987b\u786e\u4fdd\u6267\u653f\u515a\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u7b2c\u4e94\uff0c\u524d\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u9009\u533a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9063\u6563\u548c\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\u4ecd\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u6c11\u4f17\u8d77\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u540e\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u5386\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u5176\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u7279\u6743\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u6743\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u540e\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u65e2\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u969c\u788d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u516d\uff09\u7cbe\u82f1\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Elite Calculations and the Risks of Democratic Transition<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u90fd\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5207\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u6216\u52a0\u5f3a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u6210\u672c\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6301\u7eed\u9547\u538b\u7684\u6210\u672c\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u5b9e\u73b0\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8fc7\u6e21\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7cbe\u82f1\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u5316\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6848\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08<\/span>a<\/span>\uff09\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u7cbe\u82f1\u5206\u6b67<\/span><\/p>\n

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\uff08<\/span>b<\/span>\uff09\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u4e4b\u95f4\u5efa\u7acb\u53ef\u4fe1\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u4f7f\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769(\u800c\u975e\u9769\u547d)<\/span>\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5438\u6536\u6c11\u4f17<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u653f\u6743\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u7ee7\u4efb\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u6743\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u8fbe\u6210\u6c11\u4e3b\u534f\u8bae\u63d0\u4f9b\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7cbe\u82f1\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cbe\u82f1\u6210\u5458\u5bfb\u6c42\u516c\u4f17\u652f\u6301\u3002\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u7684\u4ee3\u9645\u66f4\u66ff\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5a01\u6743\u7edf\u6cbb\u88ab\u6452\u5f03\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56f0\u5883\u52a0\u5267\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u6743\u5d29\u6e83\u6216\u56fd\u5185\u66b4\u529b\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u6446\u8131\u5371\u673a\u7684\u51fa\u8def\u3002\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u9636\u5c42\u5e0c\u671b\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u6253\u5f00\u5185\u4e71\u548c\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5927\u95e8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u66f4\u5e0c\u671b\u63a5\u53d7\u4e1c\u4e9a\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span>\u2014\u2014<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u5148\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u540e\u6c11\u4e3b<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u53d7\u5230\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u624d\u80fd\u786e\u4fdd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u4e03\uff09\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e4b\u8def\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Roads to Democratization?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u867d\u7136\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u969c\u788d\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u6210\u529f\u5178\u8303\u548c\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4ed6\u533a\u57df\u56fd\u5bb6\u5177\u5907\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fc7\u6e21\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u516b\uff09\u5168\u7403\u5316\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u529b\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Globalization and International Forces<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u5f62\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u5374\u96be\u6709\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5411\u8fb9\u7f18\u56fd\u5bb6\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u523a\u6fc0\u8de8\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u52a0\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6cd5\u6cbb\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6838\u5fc3\u548c\u5e73\u533a\u5b9e\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u5916\u56f4\u6218\u4e89\u533a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5219\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5916\u56f4\u6218\u4e89\u5730\u533a\u3002\u6279\u5224\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u5219\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u5bfc\u81f4\u6743\u529b\u4ece\u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6c\u79fb\uff0c\u8de8\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6743\u529b\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u975e\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u5f00\u59cb\u4e3a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u5bfb\u6c42\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u836f\u65b9\u3002\u5728\u6700\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u7684\u5f31\u56fd\u4e2d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u6838\u5fc3\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7a7a\u5fc3\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u6838\u5fc3\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u8fb9\u7f18\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u653f\u6cbb\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f00\u59cb\u5411\u534a\u6c11\u4e3b\u9760\u62e2\u3002\u5373\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5f62\u5f0f\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u4f46\u6c11\u4e3b\u5185\u5bb9\u5374\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u884c\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6743\u529b\u683c\u5c40\u5931\u8861\u5bf9\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span>\/<\/span>\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7248\u672c\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u5145\u6ee1\u654c\u610f\uff0c\u5355\u6781\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e5f\u5bf9\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0d\u751a\u53cb\u597d\u3002\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\uff08<\/span> Anderson<\/span>\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u53d1\u52a8<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u53cd\u6050\u6218\u4e89<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u501f\u53e3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u91cd\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4f7f\u4e2d\u4e1c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8131\u79bb\u5916\u56f4\u6218\u4e89\u533a\uff0c\u5176\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u4f7f\u4e2d\u4e1c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4ea7\u751f\u8d28\u7591\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7ed3  \u8bba<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f5c\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u6781\u7aef\u654c\u5bf9\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6709\u9650\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u3001\u5c1a\u672a\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u9636\u7ea7\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4f7f\u65e9\u671f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u592d\u6298\u3002\u5176\u5a01\u6743\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\u627e\u5230\u5efa\u7acb\u4e0e\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u76f8\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u6743\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5305\u542b\u5bb9\u7eb3\u793e\u4f1a\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7ba1\u7406\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u800c\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\u5c31\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u3002\u867d\u7136\u540e\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u9762\u4e34\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u540e\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u548c\u9762\u5411\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u90fd\u4f7f\u540e\u5a01\u6743\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u963b\u788d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u6784\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6cd5\u6cbb\u3001\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u6846\u67b6\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u6539\u9769\u548c\u9009\u62d4\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6269\u5927\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3001\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u72ec\u7acb\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u6743\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u5e76\u6291\u5236\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u4e1c\u4e9a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fc7\u6e21\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u56fd\u5bb6\u95ee\u9898\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u589e\u5f3a\u653f\u6743\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u9014\u5f84\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8981\u6539\u53d8\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u7684\u4fb5\u5165\u6027\u548c\u6709\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6c11\u4e3b\u53ea\u6709\u7ecf\u8fc7\u957f\u671f\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u624d\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761\u9014\u5f84\u662f<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u6539\u9769\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u6743\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4ecd\u672a\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u653f\u6743\u5d29\u6e83\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u8c08\u5224\u8fbe\u6210\u8de8\u8d8a\u56fd\u5bb6<\/span>\u2014<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u9e3f\u6c9f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u534f\u5b9a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e72\u9884\u6216\u65bd\u538b\u7684\u526f\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u626b\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u67e5\u770b\u5f80\u671f\u7cbe\u5f69<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c01\u671f | Review of International Studies  Vol.45, No.4, 2019<\/span><\/a>
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\u7b80  \u4ecb \u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011Raymon<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[23,28],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14946"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14946"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14946\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14951,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14946\/revisions\/14951"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}