{"id":14583,"date":"2019-10-27T14:01:50","date_gmt":"2019-10-27T06:01:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/31\/63e96c5ac3\/"},"modified":"2020-01-05T22:45:26","modified_gmt":"2020-01-05T14:45:26","slug":"63e96c5ac3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/10\/27\/63e96c5ac3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f | Security Studies, Vol.28, No.4, 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u671f\u520a\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u300a\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u6536\u5f55\u51fa\u7248\u521b\u65b0\u6027\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7a3f\u4ef6\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u5b9e\u8df5\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5206\u4eab\u8fd8\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u517c\u800c\u6709\u4e4b\u3002\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5305\u542b\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u4ece\u6838\u6269\u6563\u3001\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u3001\u519b\u6c11\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u6218\u7565\u6587\u5316\u3001\u79cd\u65cf\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u51b3\u7b56\u5230\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u591a\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u6839\u636e2<\/span>018<\/span>\u5e74\u7684<\/span>Journal Citation Reports<\/span>\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u51762<\/span>018<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a1<\/span>.706<\/span>\uff0c\u57289<\/span>1<\/span>\u79cd\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7c7b\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c3<\/span>0<\/span>\uff083<\/span>0\/<\/span>9<\/span>1<\/span>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u672c\u671f\u7f16\u59d4<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7f16\u8bd1\uff1a\u5468\u96e8\u6a59\uff0c\u65bd\u6995\uff0c\u8bb8\u6587\u5a77\uff0c\u674e\u7389\u5a77\uff0c\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/p>\n

\u6821\u5bf9\uff1a\u624e\u897f\u65fa\u59c6<\/p>\n

\u5ba1\u6838\uff1a\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6392\u7248\uff1a\u5434\u4fe3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u672c\u671f\u76ee\u5f55<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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1.\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>Hatchet or Scalpel? Domestic Politics, International Threats, and US Military Spending Cuts, 1950\u20132014<\/p>\n

\u65a7\u5934\u8fd8\u662f\u624b\u672f\u5200\uff1f\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u5a01\u80c1\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u5f00\u652f\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff081950-2014\uff09<\/p>\n

\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

2.\u200d<\/span>The Sturdy Child vs. the Sword of Damocles: Nuclear Weapons and the Expected Cost of War<\/p>\n

\u5065\u58ee\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u5bf9\u8fbe\u6469\u514b\u65af\u4e4b\u5251\uff1a\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

3.\u200d<\/span>Frustration and Delay: The Secondary Effects of Supply-Side Proliferation Controls<\/p>\n

\u6cae\u4e27\u548c\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff1a\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u6838\u6269\u6563\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6b21\u7ea7\u6548\u5e94<\/p>\n


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4.\u200d<\/span>Neutrality Regimes<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236<\/p>\n


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5.\u200d<\/span>Public Goods, Club Goods, and Private Interests: The Influence of Domestic Business Elites on British Counter-Piracy Interventions in the South China Sea, 1921\u201335<\/p>\n

\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u79c1\u4eba\u5229\u76ca: 1921-1935\u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u5546\u4e1a\u7cbe\u82f1\u5bf9\u5357\u6d77\u53cd\u6d77\u76d7\u5e72\u9884\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u6458\u8981\u8bd1\u6587<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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1.<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u65a7\u5934\u8fd8\u662f\u624b\u672f\u5200\uff1f\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u5a01\u80c1\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u5f00\u652f\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff081950-2014\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong><\/span>Hatchet or Scalpel? Domestic Politics, International Threats, and US Military Spending Cuts, 1950\u20132014<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>Rosella Cappella Zielinski\uff0c\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u3002
<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Kaija Schilde\uff0c\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u5f17\u96f7\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u5e15\u8fea\u5168\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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Budgetary cuts are characterized by distinct political, organizational, and psychological dynamics in contrast to increases. Ideally, policymakers rank, prioritize, and assess among likely strategic challenges to identify the appropriate offices, programs, line items, or service branches in which to curtail spending. Targeted cuts\u2014preserving some line items or services while cutting others\u2014occurred during the Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, and Clinton administrations. In contrast, the Nixon, H.W. Bush, and Obama administrations implemented across-the-board cuts, impacting all areas of the budget uniformly, regardless of strategic priorities. We argue that the ability of the executive to target and redirect spending commensurate with national security needs are constrained by domestic interests. However, the degree to which the threat environment is diverse conditions the number of available policy options and, in turn, executive capacity to implement targeted cuts vis-\u00e0-vis parochial interests.<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011\u65bd\u6995<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/strong>\u624e\u897f\u65fa\u59c6<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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2.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5065\u58ee\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u5bf9\u8fbe\u6469\u514b\u65af\u4e4b\u5251\uff1a\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong>The Sturdy Child vs. the Sword of Damocles: Nuclear <\/span><\/p>\n

Weapons and the Expected Cost of War<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong>Andrew H. Kydd\uff0c<\/span>\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5927\u5b66\u9ea6\u8fea\u900a\u5206\u6821\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6458\u8981\u3011<\/strong>\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u800c\u66f4\u52a0\u7f8e\u597d\u5462\uff1f\u8fd8\u662f\u8bf4\u6ca1\u6709\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u7f8e\u597d\uff1f\u6838\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u6307\u51fa\u4e00\u573a\u6838\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff08costs\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\uff1b\u6838\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5219\u4e3b\u5f20\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff08likelihood\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u573a\u8fa9\u8bba\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u672a\u6709\u5b9a\u8bba\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u7f3a\u5c11\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u70b9\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c\uff08expected cost of war\uff09\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u4e00\u5e76\u6784\u6210\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u805a\u7126\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u63a8\u8bba\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u652f\u6301\u6838\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u518d\u4f4e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5176\u5e95\u7ebf\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u5bf9\u4f24\u5bb3\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u89c4\u907f\u5c06\u63d0\u5347\u6838\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u4e2a\u63a8\u8bba\u5219\u652f\u6301\u6838\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\uff084\uff09\u6218\u7565\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\uff1b\uff085\uff09\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u5458\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb200\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Is the world better off with nuclear weapons or without? Nuclear pessimists point to the potentially devastating costs of a nuclear war. Nuclear optimists argue that nuclear weapons reduce the likelihood of war and are thus beneficial. This debate is inconclusive in part because it misses an important conceptual point. We should care both about the cost of war and the likelihood of war, as they combine to form the expected cost of war, which is the product of the two. I discuss five implications of focusing on expected costs. Three support the pessimists: (1) nuclear weapons raise the upper limit on how destructive wars can be; (2) there may be a floor on how low the likelihood of war can go; and (3) risk aversion over damage will raise the expected cost of nuclear war. The remaining two support the optimists: (4) strategic models exhibit a declining expected cost of war; and (5) casualty data show that the expected cost of war is declining over its observed range in the past two hundred years.<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011\u5468\u96e8\u6a59<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/strong>\u624e\u897f\u65fa\u59c6<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6cae\u4e27\u548c\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff1a\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u6838\u6269\u6563\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6b21\u7ea7\u6548\u5e94<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong><\/span>Frustration and Delay: The Secondary Effects of Supply-Side Proliferation Controls<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong><\/span>Lisa Langdon Koch\uff0c<\/span>\u514b\u83b1\u8499\u7279\u00b7\u9ea6\u80af\u7eb3\u5b66\u9662\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Do trade barriers help slow the spread of nuclear weapons? Supply-side controls on proliferation equipment and material are often dismissed as ineffective because nuclear weapons\u2013seeking states can develop methods to circumvent the controls. However, these global export controls have important secondary effects. By creating barriers to trade, export controls force states to develop costly and inefficient methods that interfere with progress toward nuclear weapons development. Using case evidence beginning with the advent of the Nuclear Suppliers Group\u2019s export control regime in 1974, I argue that the resulting delay and frustration can change leaders\u2019 strategic calculations regarding the value of their nuclear weapons programs. These findings demonstrate that proliferation controls do slow the spread of nuclear weapons, both by delaying existing programs, and by decreasing the likelihood that leaders will make decisions to continue with, or even start, nuclear weapons programs.<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011\u674e\u7389\u5a77<\/span><\/strong>
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4.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong>Neutrality Regimes<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong>Scott Wolford\uff0c<\/span>\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u5e9c\u7cfb\u6559\u6388<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u6458\u8981\u3011<\/strong>\u672c\u6587\u5206\u6790\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u89c4\u8303\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6218\u4e89\u6269\u5f20\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff08equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u56fd\u5bb6\u88ab\u9884\u671f\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdd\u53cd\uff08\u4e2d\u7acb\uff09\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6839\u636e\u5176\uff08\u514b\u5236\u6027\u6216\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u7684\uff09\u76ee\u6807\u6765\u5206\u7c7b\u4ea4\u6218\u56fd\uff0c\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236\u80fd\u534f\u52a9\u89e3\u51b3\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u5236\u8861\u610f\u56fe\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5747\u8861\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fdd\u6cd5\u7684\u60e9\u7f5a\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u81ea\u5229\u7684\u6743\u529b\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4efb\u4f55\u57fa\u4e8e\u539f\u5219\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a\u4e00\uff0c\uff08\u5bf9\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236\uff09\u9075\u4ece\u4e0e\u5426\u7684\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\u5e76\u672a\u963b\u788d\u3001\u53cd\u800c\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236\u751f\u6548\uff1b\u4e8c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u5728\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236\u4e0b\u5bb9\u6613\u9677\u5165\u5236\u8861\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff1b\u4e09\uff0c\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e0d\u4e92\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u6279\u51c6\u3002\u4e2d\u7acb\u673a\u5236\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u6743\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u9644\u5e26\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u652f\u6301\u5747\u52bf\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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I analyze a model of war expansion in the shadow of international law, where neutrality regimes emerge as equilibria in which only aggressive states are expected to violate the law. By sorting belligerents according to their ambitions (restrained or aggressive), neutrality regimes can help resolve third-party uncertainty over the desirability of balancing. Punishment for violations of the law emerges in equilibrium from self-interested power calculations absent any principled legal commitment. The model shows that (a) neutrality regimes can be effective not despite but because of inconsistent compliance; (b) strong third parties are uniquely prone to failures to balance under neutrality regimes; and (c) ratification of neutrality regimes can be facilitated by mutual and severe mistrust. Neutrality regimes need not be epiphenomenal to power politics; rather, they can support balance-of-power systems.<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/strong>\u5468\u73ab\u7433<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011\u624e\u897f\u65fa\u59c6<\/strong>
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\u3010\u9898\u76ee\u3011<\/strong>Public Goods, Club Goods, and Private Interests:<\/span> <\/span>The Influence of Domestic Business Elites on British<\/span> <\/span>Counter-Piracy Interventions in the South China<\/span> <\/span>Sea, 1921\u201335<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/strong>Edward R. Lucas<\/span>, \u7f8e\u56fd\u7a7a\u519b\u5b66\u9662\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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This paper sheds light on the question of how domestic elite<\/span> <\/span>preferences drive states\u2019 foreign policies by studying British<\/span> <\/span>efforts to suppress maritime piracy in the South China Sea in<\/span> <\/span>the 1920s and 1930s. The archival record shows that the<\/span> <\/span>British conducted military interventions, which included destroying entire Chinese villages, principally to serve the private<\/span> <\/span>aims of London business elites. Absent these parochial<\/span> <\/span>interests Britain ignored pirate attacks, including attacks on<\/span> <\/span>British-flagged ships. This finding challenges the standard<\/span> <\/span>structural explanation, put forward by global public goods scholars, that powerful maritime states suppress piracy to protect<\/span> <\/span>universal access to the global maritime commons. It does<\/span> <\/span>so through a detailed examination of the principal example cited by this argument\u2019s supporters: historical British counterpiracy<\/span> <\/span>efforts. Understanding why states pursue their foreign<\/span> <\/span>policies also provides a greater understanding of why powerful<\/span> <\/span>states choose to serve as global public goods providers in<\/span> <\/span>some instances but not in others.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u626b\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u67e5\u770b\u5f80\u671f\u7cbe\u5f69<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u9884\u544a\u3011\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u63a8\u51fa\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\u5b66\u672f\u52a8\u6001\u901f\u9012\uff01<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c01\u671f | Review of International Studies  Vol.45, No.4, 2019<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c02\u671f | International Relations Vol.33, No.3, 2019<\/a>
<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c03\u671f | International Organization Vol.73, No.3, 2019<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c04\u671f | World Politics, Vol.71, No.4, 2019<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c05\u671f | European Journal of International Relations<\/span><\/a>
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\u5206\u7c7b\u5bfc\u89c8 1 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5206\u7c7b\u5bfc\u89c8 2 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\uff09\uff1a\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c06\u671f | Security Studies, Vol.28, No.4, 2019<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u671f\u520a\u7b80\u4ecb \u300a\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u6536\u5f55\u51fa\u7248\u521b\u65b0\u6027\u7684\u5b66<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[36,34],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14583"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14583"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14583\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14596,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14583\/revisions\/14596"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}