{"id":14382,"date":"2019-12-16T10:30:50","date_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:22:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/30\/091dae85f5\/"},"modified":"2019-12-30T17:22:34","modified_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:22:34","slug":"091dae85f5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/16\/091dae85f5\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4ee3\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\uff1f\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c295\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Henrik Urdal\uff0c\u5965\u65af\u9646\u548c\u5e73\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Peace Research Institute Oslo\uff0cPRIO\uff09\u6240\u957f\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff0c\u300a\u548c\u5e73\u7814\u7a76\u671f\u520a\u300b\uff08Journal of Peace Research<\/em>\uff09\u4e3b\u7f16\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u3001\u73af\u5883\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u653f\u6cbb\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u4ed6\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u6b21\u6570\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8c37\u6b4c\u5b66\u672f\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5176\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u6b21\u6570\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7850\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Urdal, H. (2006). A clash of generations? Youth bulges and political violence. International studies quarterly, 50<\/em>\uff083\uff09, 607-629. <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u672c\u6587\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u627e\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7fa4\u4f53\u89c4\u6a21\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u503e\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u4e8c\u3001<\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u5047\u8bbe<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>1\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6bd4\u6ca1\u6709<\/span><\/span>\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u906d\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>2\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u629a\u517b\u8d1f\u62c5\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d8a\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>3\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d8a\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>4\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>5\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d8a\u4e13\u5236\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c31\u8d8a\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>6\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d8a\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e09\u3001<\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u672c<\/span><\/span>\u6587<\/span><\/span>\u4ee5\u56fd\u5bb6<\/span>–\u5e74<\/span><\/span>\u5ea6<\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u5355\u4f4d<\/span><\/span>\u8fdb\u884c<\/span><\/span>\u5927\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u5316<\/span><\/span>\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u6db5\u76d61950-2000<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u975e\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u533a\uff08\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u3001\u88ab\u5360\u9886\u571f\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u975e\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u533a\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u975e\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u533a\u7684\u62bd\u6837<\/span><\/span>\u4ec5\u5305\u62ec1995<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u81f3\u5c11\u4e3a15<\/span><\/span>\u4e07\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u672a\u91c7\u75281950<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u8f83\u4f4e<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7f3a\u4e4f\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u6570\u636e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b<\/span><\/span>\uff1a\u56fd\u5185\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u66b4\u4e71\u548c\u66b4\u529b\u793a\u5a01\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/span>\u91c7\u7528<\/span><\/span>\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u91c7\u7528\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u56fd\u5185\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u7528\u4e8c\u5206\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u56fd\u5185\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u662f\u5426\u7206\u53d1\u3002\u4e8c\u662f\u7531\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u66b4\u4e71<\/span>\/\u66b4\u529b\u793a\u5a01\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/span>\u5448\u504f\u6001\u5206\u5e03<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u8d1f\u4e8c\u9879\u56de\u5f52\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

1.\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u56fd\u5185\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81<\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u4e4c\u666e\u8428\u62c9<\/span>\/\u666e\u91cc\u5965\uff08Uppsala\/PRIO<\/span><\/span>\uff09\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff08<\/span>Gleditsch et al., 2002<\/span>\uff09\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5c06\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u5f53\u4e8b\u65b9\uff08\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f53\u4e8b\u65b9\u662f\u4e00\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\uff09\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\uff08Harbom and Walle<\/span>nsteen 2005:634<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u5148\u5c06\u8f7b\u5fae\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\uff08\u6bcf\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11\u670925<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4eba\u6b7b\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u6218\u6597<\/span><\/span>\uff09\u548c\u6218\u4e89\uff08\u6bcf\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11\u67091000<\/span>\u4eba\u6b7b\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u90fd\u7eb3\u5165\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5bf9\u6b7b\u4ea1\u89c4\u6a21\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u5355\u72ec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u56de\u5f52\u30021950<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u5230<\/span>2000\u5e74\u5171\u6709193<\/span><\/span>\u8d77\u51b2\u7a81\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>\u66b4\u4e71<\/span><\/span>\/<\/span>\u66b4\u529b\u793a\u5a01<\/span>\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u300a\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u76f4\u63a5\u884c\u52a8\u8bc4\u4f30\u8bae\u5b9a\u4e66\u300b(Protocol for the Assessment of Nonviolent Direct Action, PANDA)<\/span><\/span>\u3002PANDA<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u662f\u7531\u8def\u900f\u793e\u65b0\u95fb\u8fde\u7ebf\u62a5\u9053\u6807\u9898\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u81ea\u52a8\u6587\u672c\u641c\u7d22\u751f\u6210\u7684<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4N\u662f\u4ece1984<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<\/span>1995<\/span>\u5e74\u8fd912<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2.\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0<\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u88ab<\/span><\/span>\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a15-24<\/span><\/span>\u5c81<\/span><\/span>\u4eba\u53e3<\/span><\/span>\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u603b\u6210\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\uff0815<\/span>\u5c81\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u9f84\u5206\u5e03\u6570\u636e\u6765<\/span><\/span>\u6e90\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c55\u671b\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd1999<\/span>\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u300a\u5c0f\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u5e74\u9274\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u9274<\/span><\/span>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u672c\u6587\u8fd8\u5728\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u65b9\u9879\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027<\/span><\/span>\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>Collier<\/span><\/strong>\u7b49\u5b66\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u9752\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e86\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u800c\u672c\u6587\u5219\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u9752\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\u5360<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u603b\u6210\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\uff08<\/span>15\u5c81\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u7684<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u5ea6\u91cf\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

3.<\/span><\/strong>\u4e2d\u4ecb\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\uff081\uff09GDP<\/span><\/span>\/cap growth<\/span><\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u89c2\u6d4b\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u4e94\u5e74\u671f\u95f4<\/span><\/span>\u8be5\u56fd<\/span><\/span>\u4eba\u5747\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c<\/span><\/span>\uff08GDP<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90<\/span><\/span>\u4e8e\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u4e16\u754c<\/span><\/span>\uff08\u6839\u636e\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u5e73\u4ef7\u8c03\u6574\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u4eba\u5747GDP<\/span><\/span>\u8868<\/span><\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span>PPP adjusted GDP per capita<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff08<\/span>Heston, Summers<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>and Aten 2002<\/span>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff082\uff09<\/span>Dependency ratio<\/span><\/span>\uff1a\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5bf9<\/span>\u629a\u517b\u6bd4<\/span><\/span>\u7387\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5bf9\u629a\u517b\u6bd4\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span>\u662f\u6307<\/span><\/span>\u603b<\/span>\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d0-14<\/span>\u5c81\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u4e0e<\/span>15-24<\/span>\u5c81\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u4e4b\u6bd4\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u503c\u4f4e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u3002<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c55\u671b\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd1999<\/span>\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u300a\u4eba\u53e3\u5e74\u9274\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u9274<\/span>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff083\uff09<\/span>Tertiary education growth<\/span><\/span>\uff1a<\/span>\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u6269\u5f20<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6559\u79d1\u6587\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u57281970\u5e74\u52301995\u5e74\u6bcf\u4e94\u5e74\u5212\u5206\u4e00\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e94\u5e74\u7684\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u62db\u751f\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5b66\u751f\u5b8c\u6210\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u8fdb\u5165\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u8be5\u53d8\u91cf\u6ede\u540e\u4e00\u9636\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff084\uff09Regime type<\/span><\/span>\uff1a<\/span>\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/span>\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e<\/span>Polity IV\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff08<\/span>Marshall<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Jaggers 2000<\/span>\uff09\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u53d6\u503c<\/span>\u8303\u56f4\u4ece-10<\/span><\/span>\uff08\u6700\u4e13\u5236\uff09\u5230<\/span>10<\/span>\uff08\u6700\u6c11\u4e3b\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08<\/span>5<\/span>\uff09<\/span>Urban growth<\/span><\/span>\uff1a\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u53d1\u5c55\u6307\u6807\u300b\uff08\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c2003<\/span>\u5e74\u7248\uff09<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5305\u62ec1960-2000<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u8861\u91cf\u4e86\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

4.\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\uff08<\/span>1\uff09<\/span>Infant mortality rate<\/span><\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\u5a74\u513f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387(IMR)<\/span>\u662f\u6307\u5a74\u513f\u51fa\u751f\u540e\u4e0d\u6ee1\u5468\u5c81\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u540c\u51fa\u751f\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5bf9<\/span><\/span>\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/span>\u8fdb\u884c\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0cIMR<\/span>\u9ad8\u4f4e\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7269\u8d28\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73<\/span><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>\u6559\u80b2\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u6027\u522b\u5e73\u7b49\u5ea6\u548c\u5065\u5eb7\u536b\u751f\u5236\u5ea6<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c55\u671b\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd1999<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u300a\u4eba\u53e3\u5e74\u9274\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u9274<\/span><\/span>\uff09\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e8e\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8fd8\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u7ecf\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u5e73\u4ef7\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4eba\u5747<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u5bf9\u6570<\/span><\/span>\u503c<\/span><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08<\/span>2\uff09\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u8fd8\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u65b9\u9879\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u653f\u4f53\u5bf9\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5012<\/span>U\u5f62\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08<\/span>3\uff09\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0d\u540c\u89c4\u6a21\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u503e\u5411\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u4e2a\u8861\u91cf\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u4f7f\u7528<\/span><\/span>\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>\u8bc4\u4f30\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5185\u6218\u6743\u5a01\u7814\u7a76\uff08Fearon and Laitin 2003<\/span><\/span>\uff1b<\/span>Collier and Hoefler 2004<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u7167\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/span>\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c55\u671b\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd1999<\/span>\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u300a\u5c0f\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u5e74\u9274\u300b\uff08\u8054\u5408\u56fd<\/span><\/span>\u5e74\u9274<\/span><\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u7ecf\u8fc7<\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u6570\u8f6c\u6362\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f5c\u8005\u5047\u8bbe\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.\u7edf\u8ba1\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u63a7\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u8003\u8651\u65f6\u95f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u65f6\u95f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a<\/span><\/span>\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span><\/span> \u201c\u548c\u5e73\u77ed\u6682\u6027<\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span>\uff08Brevity of peace<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09\u7684\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u4e4b\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u53d1\u751f\u65b0\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u548c\u521b\u4f24\u7684\u6108\u5408\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u516c\u5f0f<\/span>exp{\uff08<\/span><\/span>–<\/span>\u548c\u5e73\u5e74\uff09<\/span>\/X}\uff0c<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u548c\u5e73\u5e74<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u5386\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5e74\u6570\uff0c\u800c<\/span>X<\/span>\u7684\u503c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u5bf9\u51b2\u7a81\u503e\u5411\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u4ee5\u4ec0\u4e48\u901f\u5ea6\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u6839\u636eToset<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3001<\/span>Gleditsch<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Hegre<\/span>\uff08<\/span>2000<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span>X\u88ab\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e3a<\/span>4<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5927\u7ea6\u6bcf<\/span>3<\/span>\u5e74\u51cf\u534a\u3002\u548c\u5e73\u77ed\u6682\u6027\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u53d6\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>1<\/span>\u7684\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8b\u8fd1\u4e8e<\/span>0<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u4ee5\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u503c\u4e3a<\/span>0<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8ba1\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3a\u63a7\u5236\u4ee5\u524d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u6ede\u540e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5ea6\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u8868<\/span>1\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/span>1<\/span>\u548c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>2<\/span>\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u72ec\u7acb\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u975e\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u56fd\u5185\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u4e3b\u8981\u5047\u8bbe\uff08H1<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u589e\u52a0<\/span>1<\/span>\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a0<\/span>4%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u5982\u6a21\u578b<\/span>3<\/span>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5c06\u5a74\u513f\u6b7b\u7387\u66f4\u6362\u4e3a\u66f4\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6307\u6807\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u5e73\u4ef7\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u5747<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u5bf9\u6570<\/span><\/span>\u540e<\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4ecd\u7136\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457<\/span><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4ee3\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\uff1f\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b<\/p>\n

\u6a21\u578b<\/span>4\u4e2d\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u9879\u5e76\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5355\u8c03\u7684\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/span>5\u4e2d<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>Collier\u4e4b\u524d\u5bf9\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u7531\u4e8e\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0d\u663e\u8457<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u4f46<\/span><\/span>\u5728\u6a21\u578b<\/span>6\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0<\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>\u629a\u517b\u6bd4\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u4e58\u79ef\u4ea4\u53c9<\/span><\/span>\u9879\u65f6\uff0c<\/span>Collier<\/span>\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0<\/span><\/span>\u5ea6<\/span><\/span>\u91cf\u53d8\u5f97<\/span><\/span>\u663e\u8457<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u9ad8\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u548c\u9ad8\u629a\u517b\u8d1f\u62c5\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\uff08\u7b26\u5408<\/span>H2<\/span>\uff1a\u629a\u517b\u8d1f\u62c5\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d8a\u5f3a<\/span><\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6b63\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386<\/span>\u201c\u548c\u5e73\u7ea2\u5229\u201d\uff0c\u4f46Fearon\u548cLaitin\uff082003\uff09\u4ee5\u53caCollier\u548cHoeffler\uff082004\uff09\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f3c\u4e4e\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86\u5e74\u9f84\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u76f8\u53cd\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8868\u73b0<\/span><\/span>\u4e0e\u9884\u671f\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u4ee5\u5a74\u513f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u6216\u4eba\u5747<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u6765\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u90fd\u5927\u5927\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u653f\u4f53\u9879\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u4e4b\u95f4\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u5012<\/span>U\u578b\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e2d\u95f4\u653f\u4f53\u6bd4\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u548c\u4e13\u5236\u653f\u4f53\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u751f\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span>\u540c\u65f6\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u503e\u5411\u660e\u663e\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u89c4\u6a21<\/span><\/span>\u4ee3\u8868<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5927\u5c0f<\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u7ef4\u6301\u7684\u5730\u7406\u533a\u57df\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u79cd\u65cf\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/span>Fearon\u548cLaitin\uff082003:81\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u4f7f\u653f\u4f53\u66f4\u96be\u4fdd\u6301\u4e25\u5bc6\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u53cd\u53db\u65b0\u5175\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u79cd\u65cf\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff082003:85\uff09\u3002\u7f3a\u5931\u7684<\/span>\u653f\u4f53<\/span><\/span>\u6570\u636e\u6307\u6807\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u662f\u8d1f\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49<\/span><\/span>\u663e\u8457<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u91c7\u7528\u4f30\u7b97\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff08<\/span>0\uff09\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5355\u5143\u6bd4\u6700\u521d\u91c7\u7528\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u5355\u5143\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a0\u4e5f\u662f\u201c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u534a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u201d\u7684\u53d6\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u5927\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c<\/span>\u6839\u636e\u548c\u5e73\u77ed\u6682\u6027\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u51b2\u7a81\u5386\u53f2<\/span><\/span>\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u65b0\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u80cc\u666f\u56e0\u7d20<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8868<\/span>2\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u80cc\u666f\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e94<\/span>\u4e2a\u4ea4\u53c9\u9879<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u5728\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709<\/span>H5<\/span>\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d8a\u4e13\u5236\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c31\u8d8a\u5f3a\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6a21\u578b<\/span>7\u548c\u6a21\u578b8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8868\u660e\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u65f6\u671f\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u53d1\u751f\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u867d\u7136\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\uff08\u6a21\u578b9\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e<\/span>\u653f\u4f53\u5e73\u65b9<\/span><\/span>\u9879\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u8868\u73b0\u51fa<\/span><\/span>\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u6700\u4e13\u5236<\/span><\/span>\u548c\u6700\u6c11\u4e3b<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u66f4<\/span><\/span>\u9ad8<\/span><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u6269\u5f20\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u4ea4\u53c9\u9879<\/span><\/span>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u90fd\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u4f46\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u7684\u3002\u4f4e\u4eba\u5747\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u63d0\u5347\u5219\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u503e\u5411\u7684\u964d\u4f4e\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4ee3\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\uff1f\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b<\/section>\n

\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u3001\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u66b4\u4e71<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ece\u88683<\/span>\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u652f\u6301<\/span><\/span>\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u6b63\u76f8\u5173<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d1f\u589e\u957f<\/span><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u6269\u5f20<\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u90fd\u4e0e\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u652f\u6301\u4e86H3<\/span><\/span>\uff08\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff09\u548cH4<\/span><\/span>\uff08\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\u3001\u629a\u517b\u6bd4\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u548c\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u80cc\u666f\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u57ce\u5e02\u5316<\/span><\/span>\u4ea4\u53c9\u9879\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49<\/span><\/span>\u5e76\u4e0d<\/span><\/span>\u663e\u8457<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u66b4\u4e71\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd<\/span><\/span>\u7531\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u800c<\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u6050\u6016\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6709\u66f4<\/span><\/span>\u591a<\/span><\/span>\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>\u591a\u6570\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u540c\u65f6\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u5728\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u6b66\u88c5\u7684\u3001\u6709\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5c31<\/span><\/span>\u6b64<\/span><\/span>\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u5bcc\u88d5\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u56e2\u4f53<\/span><\/span>\u89c6\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u9996\u9009<\/span><\/span>\u7b56<\/span><\/span>\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\u3001\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u6269\u5f20\u8fd8\u662f\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u90fd\u4e0e\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u589e\u52a0\u66b4\u4e71\u548c\u66b4\u529b\u793a\u5a01\u7684\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/span>\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u629a\u517b\u6bd4\uff08H2<\/span>\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u662f\u663e\u8457<\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u6b63\u7684<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u5404\u56fd\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u4f4e\u5f3a\u5ea6\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4ee3\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\uff1f\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b<\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c09\u671f | International Relations of Asia-Pacific Vol.19,No.3<\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c10\u671f | International Studies Review, Volume.21, No.3, 2019<\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c11\u671f | Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 54, No. 4, 2019<\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c12\u671f | International Affairs, Vol.95, No.6\uff0c2019<\/a>
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\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\uff09\uff1a\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u4ee3\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\uff1f\u9752\u5e74\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba \u7b2c295\u671f<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb \u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011Henrik Urda<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14383,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[24,26],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14382"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14382"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14382\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14397,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14382\/revisions\/14397"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}