{"id":14060,"date":"2019-10-17T14:01:53","date_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/30\/fa57a72ad0\/"},"modified":"2019-12-30T17:19:00","modified_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:19:00","slug":"fa57a72ad0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/10\/17\/fa57a72ad0\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u8d1d\u514b\u5229\uff08Michael Be<\/span>ckley\uff09\uff0c\u5854\u592b\u8328\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u54c8<\/span>\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u653f\u5e9c<\/span>\u5b66\u9662\u8d1d\u5c14\u5f17\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3002<\/span>
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\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u674e\u96ef\u73f2\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u7f16\u8bd1\u5458\uff0c\u5357\u5f00\u5927\u5b66\u5468\u6069\u6765\u653f\u5e9c\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u5170\u661f\u8fb0\uff1b\u88d8\u8c37\u57ce<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011<\/span><\/strong>\u4e01\u4f1f\u822a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6392\u7248\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u8d3a\u5955<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>Beckley, M. (2018). The Power of Nations: Measuring What Matters.<\/span> International Security<\/em>, 43(2), 7\u201344.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u671f\u520a\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u300b\uff08International Security<\/em>\uff09\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u9886\u57df\u7684\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u8bae\u9876\u7ea7\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\u3002\u5b83\u6210\u7acb\u4e8e1976\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u8d1d\u5c14\u5f17\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University\uff09\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff08MIT Press\uff09\u6bcf\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u56db\u6b21\u30022018\u5e74\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a4.500\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u7c7b\u522b\u768485\u79cd\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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The Power of Nations: Measuring What Matters<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14<\/span>\u00b7\u8d1d\u514b\u5229\uff08Michael Beckley\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u83ab\u8fc7\u4e8e\uff1a<\/span>\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ba9\u6709\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u5927<\/span><\/strong>\uff1f\u7531\u4e8e\u5747\u52bf\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u5747\u52bf\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff08<\/span>power\uff09\uff1b\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u9884\u4f30\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u76f8\u5bf9\u5b9e\u529b\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6218\u7565\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u662f\u96be\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u65f6\u800c\u53d8\u56e0\u5730\u800c\u6b8a\u3002\u901a\u5e38\uff0c<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5851\u9020\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u80fd\u529b<\/span><\/strong>\uff08<\/span>ability\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u6d4b\u91cf\u8fd9\u4e00\u80fd\u529b\u9700\u8981\u5256\u6790\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e0\u6570\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u663e\u7136\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u679c\u8bc4\u4f30\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u7528\u5904\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5fc5\u987b\u7b49\u5f85\u67d0\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7ed3\u8bba\u53ea\u9488\u5bf9\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u666e\u904d\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span>
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\u4e3a\u4e86\u514b\u670d\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c<\/span>\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5b66\u8005\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u5bb6\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8d22\u5bcc\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u4ea7<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u8d22\u5bcc\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u6bd4\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u603b\u6307\u6807\uff08<\/span>gross<\/span><\/span>indicators<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08<\/span>GDP\uff09\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u529b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6807\uff08<\/span><\/span>Composite Indicator of National Capability<\/span>, <\/span>CINC<\/span>\uff09\u7b49\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u6ca1\u6709\u6263\u9664\u56fd\u5bb6\u7528\u4e8e\u5b89\u4fdd\u3001\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u8d2b\u7a77\u5374\u4eba\u53e3\u7a20\u5bc6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u88ab\u5938\u5927\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u7a20\u5bc6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u867d\u7136\u80fd\u591f\u62e5\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u4f9b\u517b\u4e00\u652f\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u519b\u961f\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u540c\u6837\u8981\u627f\u62c5\u5de8\u989d\u7684\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6d88\u8017\u4e86\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u7275\u5236\u4e86\u519b\u961f\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u6d77\u5916\u62d3\u5c55\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<\/span>\u4f7f\u7528\u8d44\u6e90\u5360\u6709\u91cf\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u662f\u53ef\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u5e94\u91c7\u7528\u603b\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u7528\u51c0\u6307\u6807\uff08net indicators<\/span><\/strong>\uff09<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u51c0\u6307\u6807\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u7ed9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u521b\u5efa\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff08<\/span><\/span>a balance sheet<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u5f52\u4e3a\u4e00\u7c7b\uff0c\u8d1f\u503a\u5f52\u4e3a\u53e6\u4e00\u7c7b\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\u51cf\u53bb\u603b\u8d1f\u503a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u5b9a\u6027\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u51c0\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb<\/span>200\u5e74\u95f4\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u5174\u8870\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e<\/span><\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u662f\u7531\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\uff08power is a function of net resources<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u5177\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5b66\u8005\u90fd\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u603b\u6307\u6807\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64<\/span>\u5b66\u8005\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u91cd\u65b0\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e<\/span>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u201d\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u88ab\u5927\u8086\u5ba3\u4f20\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u671d\u91ce\u4e0a\u4e0b\u4fe8\u7136\u6df1\u4fe1\u4e0d\u7591\u3001\u4e25\u9635\u4ee5\u5f85\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c<\/span>\u5982\u679c\u7528\u603b\u6307\u6807\u51cf\u53bb\u56fd\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u5927\u5927\u9886\u5148\u4e2d\u56fd<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u5206\u4e3a\u516b\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b66\u8005\u8981\u7528\u8d44\u6e90\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u529b\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e86\u5b66\u8005\u8981\u7528\u51c0\u6307\u6807\u800c\u975e\u603b\u6307\u6807\u6d4b\u91cf\u8d44\u6e90\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\u4f5c\u8005\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1b\u7b2c\u56db\u5230\u4e03\u90e8\u5206\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u5927\u6570\u636e\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\u5404\u6307\u6570\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff1b\u6700\u540e\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u662f\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d22\u5bcc\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u603b\u548c<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u9645\u63f4\u52a9\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u4e3e\u529e\u4e16\u535a\u4f1a\u548c\u8fd0\u52a8\u4f1a\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\u589e\u5f3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u548c\u8f6f\u5b9e\u529b\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u7528\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u6e90\u6253\u51fb\u654c\u4eba\u3001\u5efa\u7acb\u540c\u76df\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u62d2\u7edd\u91c7\u7528<\/span>\u201c\u8d44\u6e90–<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\uff08power-as-resources approach<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff09<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u662f<\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u679c\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff08power-as-outcomes approach<\/span><\/strong>\uff09<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5b9e\u529b\u5c31\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u4e89\u7aef\u3001\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u8c08\u5224\uff09\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c\u7ed3\u679c–<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f18\u70b9\u3002\u5982\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u660e\u786e\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff1b\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ee5\u5f31\u80dc\u5f3a\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u975e\u7269\u8d28\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9\u4e5f\u662f\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u8bc4\u4f30\u56fd\u5bb6\u603b\u4f53\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u5373\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b9e\u529b\u5173\u7cfb\u9700\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u5927\u91cf\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u201c\u7ed3\u679c–<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u201c\u7ed3\u679c–<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ea\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5f53\u4e0b\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u201c\u7ed3\u679c–<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8352\u8c2c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u5982\u8d8a\u5357\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u6218\u8d25\uff0c\u4f46\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u5317\u8d8a\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f3a\u3002\u5b9e\u529b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u8fd8\u53d7\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u7269\u8d28\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u610f\u5fd7\u3001\u8fd0\u6c14\u548c\u667a\u6167\uff09\uff0c\u201c\u7ed3\u679c–<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u6df7\u4e3a\u4e00\u8c08\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u8d44\u6e90–<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c06\u5b9e\u529b\u548c\u975e\u7269\u8d28\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u660e\u786e\u533a\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u8d44\u6e90–<\/span>\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u7528\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u679c\u6570\u636e\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e0d\u540c\u8d44\u6e90\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u66f4\u786e\u5207\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u60f3\u8981\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\u8d44\u6e90\u6307\u6807\u66f4\u52a0\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u52fe\u52d2\u51fa\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u5174\u8870\u3001\u66f4\u52a0\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e8c\u3001\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d44\u6e90\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u51c0\u6307\u6807\u800c\u975e\u603b\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u603b\u6307\u6807\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5938\u5927\u4eba\u53e3\u4e30\u5bcc\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u603b\u6307\u6807\u53ea\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u591a\u7684\u597d\u5904\uff0c\u5374\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u591a\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u4eba\u53e3\u5728\u521b\u9020\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\u56fd\u5bb6\u8981\u60f3\u4f4d\u5c45\u4e16\u754c\u524d\u5217\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u83b7\u5f97\u9ad8\u4ea7\u51fa\u3002<\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u662f\u51cf\u53bb\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u7c7b\uff1a\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u3001\u798f\u5229\u6210\u672c\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u6307\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4e86\u83b7\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u4ea7\u51fa\u5fc5\u987b\u6295\u5165\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8017\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u548c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6c61\u67d3\u7b49\uff0c\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0a\u6307\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bad\u7ec3\u58eb\u5175\u548c\u7814\u53d1\u5148\u8fdb\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u800c\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u798f\u5229\u6210\u672c\u6307\u56fd\u5bb6\u7528\u4e8e\u7ef4\u6301\u4eba\u4eec\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982\u98df\u7269\u3001\u533b\u7597\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u3002\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u6307\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ef4\u62a4\u653f\u6743\u3001\u6253\u51fb\u72af\u7f6a\u548c\u5bf9\u5916\u9632\u5fa1\u800c\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u90fd\u6d88\u8017\u4e86\u5404\u56fd\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u5fc5\u987b\u53bb\u6389\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u4f7f\u7528\u51c0\u6307\u6807<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6d4b\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u6307\u6807\u90fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6307\u6807\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u7eaa\u5f55\u4e86\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span>GD<\/span>P\u53ef\u4ee5\u7f6e\u6362\uff08<\/span><\/span>fungible<\/span>\uff09\u6210\u519b\u4e8b\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u662f\u201c\u65d7\u8230\u6307\u6807\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u5f88\u5c11\u4eba\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0cGDP<\/span>\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u53bb\u9664\u6389\u6210\u672c<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c<\/span>GDP\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u548c\u73af\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u65e0\u7528\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u798f\u5229\u6210\u672c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4f53\u7cfb\u91cc\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u98df\u7269\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u6ca1\u6709\u533a\u522b\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u9677\u5165\u9a6c\u5c14\u8428\u65af\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u6d88\u8017\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5b83\u7684<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u5c06\u5b89\u5168\u652f\u51fa\u7b97\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u51fa\u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u51cf\u53bb\u7531\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u52a8\u8361\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u672c\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709<\/span>\u201c\u6218\u4e89\u6f5c\u529b\u201d\uff08<\/span>war potential<\/span>\uff09\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u529b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6807\uff08<\/span>CINC<\/span>\uff09\u7b49\u90fd\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span>\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u603b\u6307\u6807\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u7ef4\u7684\uff08one-dimensional<\/span><\/strong>\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u8d44\u6e90\u5229\u7528\u6548\u7387\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f25\u8865\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6307\u6807\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9\uff0c\u6700\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u51cf\u6389\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u51c0\u5b58\u91cf\u3002\u5982\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4e86\u5efa\u9020\u529e\u516c\u56ed\u533a\u800c\u780d\u6389\u4e00\u7247\u68ee\u6797\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u68ee\u6797\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u8bb0\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u6536\u652f\u8868\u4e2d\u7684\u635f\u5931\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7f16\u5236\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4fdd\u7f57<\/span>\u00b7\u8d1d\u6d1b\u8d6b\uff08<\/span>Paul Bairoch<\/span>\uff09\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\uff1a<\/span>\u201c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u548c<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u603b\u91cf\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u3002<\/span>\u201d\u968f\u540e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0cGDP<\/strong><\/span>\u603b\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f53\u73b0\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u4ea7\u51fa\u603b\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u5747GDP<\/span><\/strong>\u5219\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5c06\u4e8c\u8005\u7efc\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u56ca\u62ec\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u5229\u7528\u6548\u7387\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7ef4\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u7531\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c<\/span>\u7528GDP<\/span><\/strong>\u4e58\u4ee5\u4eba\u5747GDP<\/span><\/strong>\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56db\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u4e09\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6bd4\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u533a\u522b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u9009\u53d6\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u957f\u671f\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u4e14\u4e00\u56fd\u5728\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0a\u5360\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u56fd\u5728\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0a\u5360\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6307\u6807\uff08<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u3001<\/span>CINC<\/span>\u3001<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u7528\u4e09\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u590d\u5236\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e09\u79cd\u6307\u6807\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5185\u9002\u5408\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\uff08<\/span>In-sample goodness-of-fit<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6307\u6807\u7684\u9002\u5408\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5bb9\u7eb3\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b66\u8005\u5e94\u91c7\u7528\u9002\u5408\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e94\u3001\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6839\u636e\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u81ea1816\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5171\u670914<\/span>\u7ec4\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u6301\u7eed\u4e8625<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7b5b\u9009\u51fa\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5dee\u5f02\u6700\u5927\u7684\u51e0\u7ec4\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u6bcf\u7ec4\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u4e2d\u4e00\u56fdGDP<\/span>\u548c<\/span>CINC<\/span>\u5360\u4e24\u56fd\u603b\u548c\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4e24\u56fd\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a<\/span>
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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u56fd\u7684<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u5728\u4e24\u56fd\u4e4b\u548c\u4e2d\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a<\/span>
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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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<\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u7a7a\u95f4\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u5dee\u503c\u572820\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u51e0\u7ec4\uff1b\u53c8\u7531\u4e8e19<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u534a\u671f\u523020<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u82f1\u7ade\u4e89\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\uff0c\u4e2d\u6cd5\u7ade\u4e89\u4e3a\u4ece\u5c5e\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u82f1\u82cf\u7ade\u4e89\u4e5f\u662f\u4ece\u5c5e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u82cf\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4e2d\u6cd5\u7ade\u4e89\u7ec4\u548c\u82f1\u82cf\u7ade\u4e89\u7ec4\u6392\u9664\u6389\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u56db\u7ec4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u76f8\u5dee\u6700\u5927\u7684\u524d\u4e5d\u7ec4\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff08\u6c99\u4fc4\/\u82cf\u8054\uff09\u7684\u8eab\u5f71\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u4e2d\u4fc4\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u767e\u5e74\u4e2d\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u9886\u5148\u4e16\u754c\u4f46\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u56fd\u3002\u4e2d\u4fc4\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u89c4\u6a21\u867d\u5c0f\u4f46\u6c34\u5e73\u66f4\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u5370\u8bc1\u4f5c\u8005\u201c\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u51b3\u5b9a\u5b9e\u529b\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff081\uff09\u82f1\u56fdvs<\/span>\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c1839-1911<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ece\u4f20\u7edf\u6307\u6807\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f<\/span>19\u4e16\u754c\u548c<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u76f4\u5230<\/span>19\u4e16\u754c<\/span>90<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u90fd\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a<\/span><\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u548c\u519b\u961f\u89c4\u6a21\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u540d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e5f\u4fdd\u6301\u5230\u4e86<\/span>20\u4e16\u754c<\/span>30<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u7136\u800c\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5374\u906d\u53d7\u5230<\/span>\u201c\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e4b\u803b\u201d<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u8bb8\u591a\u91cd\u8981\u9886\u571f\u548c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e3b\u6743\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e24\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u662f\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u9e26\u7247\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u9e26\u7247\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5bfc\u706b\u7d22\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7981\u70df\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u6218\u8d25\u3001\u4e2d\u82f1\u4e8e<\/span>1842\u5e74\u7b7e\u8ba2\u300a\u5357\u4eac\u6761\u7ea6\u300b\u544a\u7ec8\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e8e\u65e2\u5f97\u5229\u76ca\uff0c<\/span>1856<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u9e26\u7247\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u8282\u8282\u8d25\u9000\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u4e0e\u82f1\u6cd5\u7b7e\u8ba2\u300a\u5929\u6d25\u6761\u7ea6\u300b\u548c\u300a\u5317\u4eac\u6761\u7ea6\u300b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u6b21\u9e26\u7247\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u8981\u6bd4\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u5927<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ece\u603b\u6307\u6807\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u548c\u56fd\u9632\u9884\u7b97\u90fd\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u6709\u516b\u5341\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u82f1\u56fd\u53ea\u6d3e\u4e86\u4e03\u5343\u4eba\u8fdc\u5f81\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c<\/span>\u53ea\u6709\u628a\u6210\u672c\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u53d1\u73b0\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8f6f\u808b<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4ece\u4e0b\u56fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u603b\u91cf\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f<\/span>\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5176\u53ea\u80fd\u5c06\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u6295\u5165\u5230\u5404\u79cd\u7ea0\u7eb7\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f5c\u8005\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\uff09\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e24\u56fd\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdc\u8fdc\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5177\u4f53\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u3002\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\u66f4\u52a0\u5065\u5eb7\u4e14\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u518d\u8f85\u4ee5\u82f1\u56fd\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\uff08\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u7684<\/span>13\u500d\uff09\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u798f\u5229\u6210\u672c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u52a8\u8361\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u3002\u4e00\u8fb9\u662f\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u8d77\u4e49\u548c\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u519b\u8d39\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6e05\u653f\u5e9c\u53c8\u8981\u4ee5\u4f4e\u7a0e\u6536\u5b89\u629a\u5730\u65b9\u957f\u5b98\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u6e05\u653f\u5e9c\u9677\u5165\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u770b\u4f3c\u62e5\u6709\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4f46\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u4f7f\u4e4b\u51e0\u8fd1\u67af\u7aed\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u88c5\u5907\u4e25\u91cd\u843d\u540e\uff0c\u6218\u6597\u529b\u4f4e\u4e0b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9547\u538b\u56fd\u5185\u53db\u4e71\u548c\u8fb9\u9632\u7684\u9700\u8981\u6d88\u8017\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2d\u56fd\u6ce8\u5b9a\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff082\uff09\u65e5\u672c–<\/span>\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c1874-1945<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u572819\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e0b\u534a\u53f6\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u594b\u53d1\u56fe\u5f3a\uff0c\u7acb\u5fd7\u6446\u8131\u9694\u58c1\u5927\u6e05\u7684\u547d\u8fd0\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u5411\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5927\u9646\u6269\u5f20\u30021894<\/span>\u5e74\u901a\u8fc7\u300a\u9a6c\u5173\u6761\u7ea6\u300b\u652b\u53d6\u8fbd\u4e1c\u534a\u5c9b\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u548c\u6f8e\u6e56\u5217\u5c9b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u5b97\u4e3b\u6743\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e88\u5176\u901a\u5546\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5de8\u989d\u8d54\u6b3e\uff08\u6ce8\uff1a\u5171\u8ba12.3<\/span>\u4ebf\u4e24\u767d\u94f6\uff09\uff1b\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u4e00\u6218\u4e2d\u7ad9\u5728\u534f\u7ea6\u56fd\u4e00\u65b9\uff0c\u652b\u53d6\u4e86\u5fb7\u56fd\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u5c71\u4e1c\u9752\u5c9b\uff0c\u5e76\u5f97\u5bf8\u8fdb\u5c3a\uff0c\u5411\u5317\u6d0b\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u6761\u201d\uff0c\u867d\u7ecf\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e72\u6d89\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u83b7\u5f97\u5176\u4e2d\u56db\u6761\uff0c\u652b\u53d6\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u5229\u76ca\uff1b1932<\/span>\u5e74\u6276\u690d\u4f2a\u6ee1\u6d32\u56fd\uff1b1933<\/span>\u5e74\u63a7\u5236\u6cb3\u5317\u3001\u70ed\u6cb3\uff1b1934<\/span>\u5e74\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e1c\u4e9a\u4e3a\u5176\u52bf\u529b\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5217\u5f3a\u4e0d\u5f97\u5355\u65b9\u9762\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1b1937<\/span>\u5e74\u5168\u9762\u4fb5\u534e\uff0c\u65cb\u5373\u5360\u9886\u5927\u7247\u7586\u571f\uff1b\u5728\u5077\u88ad\u7f8e\u56fd\u540e\uff0c\u5175\u950b\u53d7\u632b\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4e8e1945<\/span>\u5e74\u5f7b\u5e95\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5728<\/span>19\u4e16\u7eaa\u665a\u671f\u548c<\/span>20<\/span>\u4e16\u7eaa\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u6bd4\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4ece\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6bd4\u65e5\u672c\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u5176\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u548c\u519b\u961f\u90fd\u5f3a\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u6570\u500d\u3002<\/span>\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u6bd4\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5176\u4eba\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u3001\u798f\u5229\u6210\u672c\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u90fd\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5176\u6240\u80fd\u52a8\u5458\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
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 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u662f\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u52b3\u52a8\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\uff0c\u94a2\u94c1\u4ea7\u91cf\u8fd8\u662f\u4e1d\u7ef8\u5e02\u573a\u5360\u6709\u7387\uff0c\u5747\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u798f\u5229\u6210\u672c\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002\u5f7c\u65f6\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u80fd\u517b\u6d3b\u5176\u4eba\u53e3\u3002\u800c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u591f\u517b\u6d3b\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u4f59\u91cf\u6765\u652f\u6491\u8d77\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u8fdc\u8fdc\u591a\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u672c\u5219\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u8fde\u540c\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed9\u5217\u5f3a\u7684\u8d54\u6b3e\u4e25\u91cd\u6d88\u8017\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u5374\u4e0d\u53d7\u519b\u8d39\u6240\u7d2f\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u652b\u53d6\u5de8\u989d\u8d54\u6b3e\uff0c\u8db3\u591f\u8865\u507f\u6218\u4e89\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7ed9\u517b\u5947\u7f3a\uff0c\u88c5\u5907\u4f4e\u52a3\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u6307\u6325\u65e0\u65b9\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u519b\u5219\u662f\u7ed9\u517b\u5145\u8db3\uff0c\u88c5\u5907\u7cbe\u826f\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u6709\u7d20\uff0c\u7ecf\u7565\u6709\u65b9\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u9700\u8981\u5e94\u5bf9\u52a8\u8361\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u90e8\u7f72\u5206\u6563\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5168\u529b\u6297\u51fb\u65e5\u519b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff083\uff09\u5fb7\u56fd–<\/span>\u6c99\u4fc4\uff0c1891-1917<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b64\u4e8c\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u6709\u5982\u4e2d\u65e5\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u8bf7\u770b\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\uff084\uff09\u7f8e\u56fd–<\/span>\u82cf\u8054\uff0c1946-1991<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u6218\u4e2d\u82cf\u8054\u635f\u5931\u60e8\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u968f\u7740\u8f74\u5fc3\u56fd\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u541e\u5e76\u5927\u91cf\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u5b9e\u529b\u5f97\u5230\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u52301945\u5e74\u82cf\u8054\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u6b27\u6d32\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b50<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u82cf\u8054\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6bd4\u80a9\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\uff1b<\/span>70<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u5728<\/span><\/span>CINC<\/span>\u3001\u519b\u961f\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7b49\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u9886\u5148\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/span>1977\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u60c5\u62a5\u5c40\u82cf\u8054\u95ee\u9898\u9996\u5e2d\u4e13\u5bb6\u96f7\u00b7\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\uff08Ray Cline<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0c\u4e14\u4ecd\u5728\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4ece<\/span>20\u4e16\u7eaa<\/span>70<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u5230<\/span>1991<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u91cd\u5927\u632b\u6298<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4ece\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u6e83\u9000\u3001\u63a5\u53d7\u4e25\u82db\u7684\u519b\u63a7\u6761\u7ea6\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u88ab\u8feb\u90e8\u5206\u5f00\u653e\u3001\u5931\u53bb\u6b27\u6d32\u6240\u6709\u52a0\u76df\u56fd\u548c\u4e8c\u767e\u4e07\u5e73\u65b9\u82f1\u91cc\u7684\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3<\/span>1991\u5e74\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u4e16\u4e0a\u4ec5\u7559\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u82cf\u8054\u4f53\u91cf\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u88ab\u7e41\u91cd\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e00<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e03\u3001\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5c45\u4e8e\u672b\u6d41\uff1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u589e\u957f\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u5355\u4f4d\u4ea7\u51fa\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u548c\u5e73\u5e74\u4ee3\u9884\u671f\u5bff\u547d\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u5a74\u513f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7a81\u98de\u731b\u8fdb\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u5374\u6b62\u6b65\u4e0d\u524d\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u6602\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u6551\u6d4e\u652f\u51fa\u5360\u8d22\u653f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ea\u6709<\/span>10%\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\u5360\u636e\u9884\u7b97\u7684<\/span>40%\u3001<\/span><\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684<\/span>15%\u5230<\/span>20%<\/span>\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56db\u500d\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u8fd8\u8981\u82b1\u8d39<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684<\/span>2%\u5230<\/span>4%<\/span>\u6765\u652f\u63f4\u76df\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u63f4\u52a9\u53ea\u5360<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684<\/span>0.3%\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u7b2c\u56db<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u519b\u961f\u6280\u672f\u843d\u540e\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u4f53\u5236\u50f5\u5316\u3001\u58eb\u5175\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u6b66\u5668\u88c5\u5907\u4e25\u91cd\u843d\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5927\u5927\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u5176\u6218\u6597\u529b\u3002<\/span>\u6700\u540e<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/span>20\u4e16\u7eaa<\/span>80<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u662f\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u516d\u500d\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u662f\u82cf\u8054\u9635\u8425\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u3002\u82cf\u8054\u8017\u8d39\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u6e90\u6765\u9632\u5fa1\u5916\u654c\u548c\u963b\u6b62\u5185\u90e8\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u663e\u7136\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4f59\u5730\u6765\u914d\u7f6e\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u516d\u30011816-2010\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u4e89\u7aef\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u53ea\u5305\u62ec\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5c11\u6570\u51e0\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u589e\u5f3a\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u53c8\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86<\/span>1816-2010\u671f\u95f4\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e89\u7aef\u548c\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc1\u660e\u5b9e\u529b\u6839\u6e90\u4e8e\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u800c\u975e\u603b\u8d44\u6e90<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u9762<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e8e\u786e\u5b9a\u53c2\u6218\u65b9\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u628a<\/span><\/span>COW<\/span>\u56fd\u9645\u6218\u4e89\u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff08<\/span>Correlates of War\u2019s Interstate Wars dataset<\/span>\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u8054\u76df\u6218\u4e89\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\uff0c<\/span>\u53ea\u8003\u8651\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u6218\u4e89<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5229\u7528<\/span><\/span>COW<\/span>\u56fd\u9645\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff08<\/span>Correlates of War\u2019s Militarized Interstate Dispute dataset<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e9b\u51b2\u7a81\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u80dc\u8d1f\u4e4b\u5206\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u53ea\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\u660e\u786e\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u5728\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u6570\u636e\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5206\u522b\u7528<\/span>GDP\u3001CINC<\/span>\u548c<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u4e09\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u54ea\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8868<\/span>2\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6bcf\u79cd\u6307\u6570\u7684\u6210\u529f\u7387\uff08\u5373\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e89\u7aef\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u3001<\/span>CINC<\/span>\u6216<\/span>GDP\u00d7<\/span>\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff09\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c<\/span>\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u6218\u4e89\u8fd8\u662f\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u90fd\u6bd4\u8ba1\u7b97\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u8981\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u4f5c\u8005\u8fd8\u5173\u6ce8\u5230\uff0c<\/span>3\u79cd\u6307\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u6218\u4e89\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u90fd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5404\u81ea\u9884\u6d4b\u56fd\u9645\u4e89\u7aef\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e89\u7aef\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u4e00\u822c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u50cf\u6218\u4e89\u90a3\u6837\u7eaf\u7cb9\u662f\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u8f83\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u4e3a\u4e86\u9a8c\u8bc1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5c40\u9650\u4e8e\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u590d\u5236\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u9009\u53d6\u4e86<\/span>2012\u5e74<\/span>1<\/span>\u6708\u81f3<\/span>2017<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>4<\/span>\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u4e03\u4efd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>24<\/span>\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u5bf9\u5b9e\u529b\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4e14\u6570\u636e\u5df2\u7ecf\u516c\u5f00\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u6d89\u53ca\u6838\u6269\u6563\u3001\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u4f5c\u8005\u5206\u522b\u7528<\/span><\/span>CINC\u3001GDP<\/span>\u548c<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u00d7\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u76f8\u5bf9\u5b9e\u529b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bcf\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u91cc\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u91cd\u590d\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u8d64\u6c60\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u51c6\u5219<\/span>Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)<\/span>\u68c0\u9a8c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9002\u5408\u5ea6\u3002<\/span>AIC\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5176\u503c\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u5ea6\u4fbf\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002\u68c0\u9a8c\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8be6\u89c1\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u9644\u5f55\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c<\/span>24\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6709<\/span>11<\/span>\u9879\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u4e58\u4ee5\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u5355\u7eaf\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u66f4\u52a0\u9002\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u5176\u4e2d\u6709<\/span>8\u9879\u7684\u5e73\u5747<\/span><\/span><\/span>AIC<\/span>\u5dee\u503c\u5927\u4e8e\u6216\u7b49\u4e8e<\/span>2<\/span>\u3002\u6709<\/span>7<\/span>\u9879\u8868\u660e\u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u540c\u7b49\u9002\u5408\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u6709<\/span>6<\/span>\u9879\u8868\u660e\u5355\u7eaf\u4f7f\u7528<\/span><\/span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u66f4\u52a0\u9002\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c<\/span>\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u603b\u6307\u6807\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u51c0\u6307\u6807\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65b0\u8fd1\u7684\u56fd\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u589e\u5f3a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9002\u5408\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u7531\u4e8e\u6837\u672c\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u8fd8\u5e76\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u5c31\u80fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u5b9e\u529b\uff08<\/span><\/span>power is a function of net rather than gross resources<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u6837\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u8d77\u7801\u548c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u547d\u9898\u5927\u4f53\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u4e0e\u8303\u56f4\u66f4\u7a84\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u547d\u9898\u76f8\u7b26\uff1a<\/span>\u548c<\/span>GDP\u6216<\/span>CINC<\/span>\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u4e58\u4ee5\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u52a0\u51fa\u8272\u5730\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5bf9\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u603b\u8d44\u6e90<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7c97\u7565\u4f46\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6307\u6807\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc1\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u6307\u6807\u6bd4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u603b\u6307\u6807\u66f4\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u5177\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91c7\u7528<\/span>CINC\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u5c06\u4f1a\u662f\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6700\u5f31\u5c0f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5f88\u8352\u8c2c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u91cd\u65b0\u8fdb\u884c\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6743\u529b\u8f6c\u79fb\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u503c\u5f97\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa<\/span>90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f<\/span>2008<\/span>\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u8bba\u201d\u5c31\u5907\u53d7\u63a8\u5d07\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u4f18\u52bf\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u6210\u591a\u6781\u683c\u5c40<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/span>19\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u53f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u89c4\u6a21\u90fd\u9886\u5148\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e4b\u803b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u867d\u7136\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5176\u8981\u6210\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u4ecd\u7136\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u8def\u8981\u8d70\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8d1f\u503a\u4f4d\u5c45\u4e16\u754c\u524d\u5217\uff0c\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd8\u53d7\u5230\u8d44\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\u3001\u73af\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\u3001\u4ea7\u80fd\u8fc7\u5269\u3001\u5b66\u672f\u9020\u5047\u3001\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u5b89\u5168\u538b\u529b\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56f0\u6270\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u6bd4\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e03\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e2d\u56fd\u5468\u8fb9\u7684<\/span>19\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u5bf9\u5176\u6301\u654c\u89c6\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u770b<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u6216<\/span>CINC<\/span>\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b<\/span>\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6839\u636e\u4f5c\u8005\u6216\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u51c0\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u8fdc\u8fdc\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4ecd\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5374\u5bf9\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u6d4b\u7b97\u7740\u58a8\u751a\u5c11\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u6d4b\u7b97\u4e0d\u51c6\u3002<\/span>\u5b9e\u529b\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u7f3a\u5c11\u6d4b\u7b97\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6307\u6807\u3002\u8865\u8db3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7f3a\u6f0f\u523b\u4e0d\u5bb9\u7f13\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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 <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u9884\u544a\u3011\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u63a8\u51fa\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\u5b66\u672f\u52a8\u6001\u901f\u9012\uff01<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c01\u671f | Review of International Studies  Vol.45, No.4, 2019<\/span><\/a>
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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c02\u671f | International Relations Vol.33, No.3, 2019<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u65b0\u520a\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7b2c03\u671f | International Organization Vol.73, No.3, 2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n


\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u70b9\u201c\u5728\u770b\u201d\u7ed9\u6211\u4e00\u6735\u5c0f\u9ec4\u82b1\"\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5982\u4f55\u6d4b\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u529b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u771f\u7684\u8d76\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4e28\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\"<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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