{"id":13615,"date":"2019-07-18T14:01:50","date_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/30\/7fa2d05386\/"},"modified":"2019-12-30T17:03:38","modified_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:03:38","slug":"7fa2d05386","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/07\/18\/7fa2d05386\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u654c\u610f\u5417\uff1f| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u654c\u610f\u5417\uff1f|<\/p>\n


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\u7b80  \u4ecb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span>Dominik Hangartner<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u82cf\u9ece\u4e16\u8054\u90a6\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff1b<\/span><\/span>Elias Dinas<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u90e8\u745e\u58eb\u8bb2\u4e60\u6559\u6388\uff1b<\/span><\/span>Moritz Marbach:<\/span>\u82cf\u9ece\u4e16\u8054\u90a6\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u535a\u58eb\u540e\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/span>Konstantinos Matakos<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4f26\u6566\u56fd\u738b\u5b66\u9662\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u90e8\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\uff1b<\/span><\/span>Dimitrios Xefteris<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\u585e\u6d66\u8def\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u90e8\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u738b\u4fde\u6b22<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong>\u5170\u661f\u8fb0\u3001<\/span>\u59da\u5bf0\u5b87<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u5ba1\u6838<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong>\u738b\u56fd\u6b23<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6765\u6e90<\/span><\/strong>\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>HANGARTNER, D., DINAS, E., MARBACH, M., MATAKOS,K., & XEFTERIS, D. (2019). Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis MakeNatives More Hostile? <\/em><\/span>American PoliticalScience Review,<\/span><\/em> 113(2), 442-455<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u671f\u520a\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u5ba1\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u548c\u6574\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u5b50\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3002<\/span>\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u9886\u57df\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c<\/span>5<\/span>\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a<\/span>6.224<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u654c\u610f\u5417\uff1f|<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u654c\u610f\u5417\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Make Natives More Hostile\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u654c\u610f\u5417\uff1f|<\/p>\n

Dominik Hangartner<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5185\u5bb9\u63d0\u8981<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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<\/span>\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u96be\u6c11\u6d8c\u5165\u6b27\u6d32\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u5173\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4ecd\u7136\u8f83\u5c11\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u9009\u53d6\u5728\u7231\u7434\u6d77\u5468\u8fb9\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9760\u8fd1\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u7684\u5e0c\u814a\u7fa4\u5c9b<\/span>\u2014\u2014<\/span>\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u6d8c\u5165\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u8c03\u7814\u4e86\u7fa4\u5c9b\u4e0a\u7684<\/span>2070<\/span>\u540d\u5c45\u6c11\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u5176\u6240\u5728\u5c9b\u5c7f\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u76f4\u63a5\u88ab\u66b4\u9732\u5728\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e0b\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5c45\u6c11\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u548c\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u7684\u654c\u610f\u5927\u91cf\u800c\u6301\u4e45\u5730\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u53bb\u5f71\u54cd\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u653f\u7b56<\/strong>\uff08<\/span>exclusionary policies<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u9014\u7ecf\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c9b\u5c7f\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u5bf9\u53cd\u79fb\u6c11\u60c5\u7eea\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6587\u5316\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ec5\u662f\u66b4\u9732\u5728\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5f97\u5f53\u5730\u5c45\u6c11\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u654c\u610f\u957f\u4e45\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u654c\u610f\u5417\uff1f|<\/p>\n

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\u6587\u7ae0\u5bfc\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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 \u7814\u7a76\u80cc\u666f <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u88ab\u8feb\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u9ad8\u8fbe6600\u4e07\u4eba\u6b21\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8c\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002<\/span>2015\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4ec5\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u5c31\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7300\u4e07\u4eba\u7533\u8bf7\u5e87\u62a4\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u548c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7b49\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/span>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8fbe\u6210\u201c\u96be\u6c11\u534f\u8bae\u201d\u540e\uff0c2016\u52302017\u5e74\u7684\u7533\u8bf7\u4eba\u6570\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u4e0a\u4ecd\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u6c11\u4f17\u5bfb\u6c42\u53bb\u6b27\u6d32\u907f\u96be\u4ee5\u9003\u79bb\u65f7\u65e5\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6fc0\u589e\u7684\u907f\u96be\u4eba\u6570\u3001\u6df7\u4e71\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u6f6e\u7ba1\u7406\u7b49\u65b0\u95fb\u5360\u636e\u4e86\u6b27\u6d32\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7248\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6fc0\u53d1\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u5e76\u9020\u6210\u5145\u65a5\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53cd\u5f39\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6781\u53f3\u7ffc\u653f\u515a\u5229\u7528\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u7126\u8651\u8fdb\u884c\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u5458\u4ee5\u5236\u5b9a\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u907f\u96be\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/span>\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4f7f\u6b27\u6d32\u6781\u53f3\u7ffc\u653f\u515a\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5f53\u5730\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u5c11\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u539f\u56e0\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002<\/span>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d85\u8d8a\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u6295\u7968\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6c47\u603b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u4ece\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u5bf9\u9009\u4e3e\u884c\u4e3a\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8981\u5bf9\u53d7\u5230\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5730\u533a\u5206\u522b\u8c03\u67e5\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u6709\u5173\u96be\u6c11\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u96be\u6c11\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\uff0c\u96be\u6c11\u4f1a\u81ea\u884c\u9009\u62e9\u8f83\u9002\u5408\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u8d21\u732e\uff1a<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6700\u5148\u4e3a\u201c\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u5c45\u6c11\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u8bc1\u636e\uff08causalevidence\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u6ca1\u6709\u96c6\u4e2d\u7740\u773c\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5230\u8fbe\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6216\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u52a0\u5267\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u957f\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u8c03\u67e5\u662f\u5728\u96be<\/span>\u6c11\u534f\u8bae\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff08\u8fd9\u65f6\u96be\u6c11\u6d8c\u5165\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6570\u91cf\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d8\u5c11\u4e86\uff09\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u9009\u53d6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u4e3a\u5e0c\u814a\u3002\u5e0c\u814a\u7ecf\u5386\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u8361\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5171\u540c\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\uff08<\/span>anti-immigrant sentiment<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u5230\u8fbe\u7fa4\u5c9b\u4e0a\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u57fa\u672c\u4f1a\u5728<\/span>24<\/span>\u5c0f\u65f6\u5185\u79bb\u5f00\u53bb\u4e0b\u4e00\u7ad9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8c03\u67e5\u96be\u6c11\u9014\u7ecf\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6392\u4ed6\u60c5\u7eea\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5728<\/span>\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u5bf9\u5e0c\u814a\u6240\u5c5e\u5c9b\u5c7f\u76842070\u4f4d\u5c45\u6c11<\/span>\u8fdb\u884c\u95ee\u5377<\/span>\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u8003\u5bdf\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u548c\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5173\u4e8e\u907f\u96be\u6240\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6574\u5408\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u6709\u5173\u96be\u6c11\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\u7684\u504f\u597d<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong>\u6709\u5173\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e0c\u814a\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u63a5\u7eb3\u66f4\u591a\u907f\u96be\u8005\uff1f\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u96be\u6c11\u5b50\u5973\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5f53\u5730\u63a5\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u201d\u3001\u201c\u96be\u6c11\u5bf9\u5e0c\u814a\u662f\u5426\u662f\u8d1f\u62c5\u201d\u7b49\u91cf\u8868\u9898\u3002\u6709\u5173\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u9898\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4f60\u57282015\u5e74\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u6295\u7968\u7ed9\u4e86\u54ea\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\uff1f\u201d\u201c\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u544a\u8bc9\u4ee3\u8868\u4f60\u7684\u8bae\u5458\u4f60\u5bf9\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff1f\u201d\u7b49\u3002<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u53d7\u5230\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u4e4b\u4e00\u2014\u2014\u5e0c\u814a\u3002<\/span>\u5e0c\u814a\u62e5\u6709\u5728\u6b27\u76df\u5916\u56f4\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\uff0c\u4e14\u4e34\u8fd1\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5730\u533a\u96be\u4ee5\u5de1\u903b\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u4f7f\u5e0c\u814a\u8fc5\u901f\u6210\u4e3a\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u548c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u96be\u6c11\u8fdb\u5165\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5165\u53e3\u3002<\/span>\u7531\u4e8e\u5e0c\u814a\u7684\u5c9b\u5c7f\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u8fdc\u8fd1\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u5229\u7528\u201c\u8ddd\u79bb\u201d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6d4b\u91cf\u96be\u6c11\u5230\u8fbe\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u96be\u6c11\u6f6e\u5f3a\u5f31\u4e0d\u540c\u5bf9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u6001\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u5e0c\u814a\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u907f\u96be\u7684\u4eba\u5e38\u5e38\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7231\u7434\u6d77\u7fa4\u5c9b\u7136\u540e\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u8fd9\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u63a5\u89e6\u5047\u8bbe\uff08\u5373\u96be\u6c11\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u63a5\u89e6\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u504f\u89c1\uff09\u7684\u9002\u7528\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5e0c\u814a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u63a5\u89e6\u60c5\u51b5\u5f88\u5c11\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span>\u76f8\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6587\u5316\u5173\u5207\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5f71\u54cd\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u96be\u6c11\u4eec\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c9b\u4e0a\u627e\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7533\u8bf7\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u3002<\/span>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u6d8c\u5165\u786e\u5b9e\u5e72\u6270\u4e86\u5c9b\u4e0a\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/span>\u8bb8\u591a\u5f53\u5730\u5a92\u4f53\u90fd\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u4e3a\u96be\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u533b\u7597\u6551\u52a9\u3001\u536b\u751f\u670d\u52a1\u548c\u5783\u573e\u6e05\u7406\u65f6\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u4f4e\u6548\u65e0\u80fd\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u96be\u6c11\u805a\u96c6\u70b9\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5806\u79ef\u6210\u5c71\u7684\u5783\u573e\u548c\u66b4\u9732\u5728\u5916\u7684\u6392\u6cc4\u7269\u5f15\u53d1\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u5927\u91cfNGO\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\u4e0e\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u7684\u4ecb\u5165\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u66f4\u6df7\u4e71\u7684\u666f\u8c61\uff0c\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u4ea7\u751f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5904\u4e8e\u5371\u6025\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u611f\u3002<\/span>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u636e\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u96be\u6c11\u805a\u96c6\u70b9\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4ea7\u751f\u793e\u4f1a\u5a01\u80c1\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002<\/span>\u79cd\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u5a01\u80c1\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u6df7\u4e71\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u7ba1\u7406\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f15\u53d1\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u548c\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4ea7\u751f\u6392\u65a5\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u53ea\u662f\u8fc7\u5883\u56fd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff1a<\/span>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u8ddd\u79bb\u4e0d\u540c\u5bfc\u81f4\u96be\u6c11\u6d8c\u5165\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u4f5c\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u5c9b\u5c7f\u4e0a\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u5f53\u5730\u5c45\u6c11\u3002<\/span>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5730\u7406\u90bb\u8fd1\u6027\u548c\u88ab\u7edf\u4e00\u653f\u5e9c\u673a\u6784\u7ba1\u8f96\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c9b\u5c7f\uff08\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u6709\u96be\u6c11\u6d8c\u5165\uff09\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5728\u6709\u96be\u6c11\u6d8c\u5165\u7684\u5c9b\u5c7f\u4e2d\uff0c\u96be\u6c11\u4eec\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u6709\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u96be\u6c11\u7f72\u4e13\u5458\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5c9b\u5c7f\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u70b9\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8865\u5145\u6d4b\u8bd5\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u9996\u5148\u628a\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u5230\u5e0c\u814a\u5404\u4e2a\u5c9b\u5c7f\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6d4b\u91cf\u96be\u6c11\u5230\u8fbe\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0e\u96be\u6c11\u9009\u62e9\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee<\/span>\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u68c0\u6d4b\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5916\u751f\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u6392\u9664\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u5148\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u2014\u2014<\/span>\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u5c9b\u5c7f\u5bf9\u5916\u6765\u8005\u4e8b\u5148\u5b58\u5728\u7684<\/strong>\u6001\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e86\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u8ddd\u79bb\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e0c\u814a\u5c9b\u5c7f\uff0c\u548c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5c45\u6c11\u5e73\u5747<\/span>\u63a5\u6536\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span>\u4ece\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\uff08OLS\uff09\u4e2d<\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u201c\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\u5177\u6709\u672c\u8eab\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u5916\u751f\u6027\uff0c\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a<\/strong><\/span>\u8ddd\u79bb\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u8d8a\u8fd1\uff0c\u96be\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u603b\u4f53\u8d8a\u591a<\/strong>\u3002<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u8003\u56fe\u4e2d\u84dd\u7ebf\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e24\u9636\u6bb5\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u56de\u5f52\uff082SLS\uff09\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4f5c\u4e3a\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u201c\u5230\u8fbe\u5c9b\u5c7f\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u591a\u5c11\u201d\uff08\u5373\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\uff0c\u548c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u201c\u96be\u6c11\u5bf9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u504f\u597d\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5185\u751f\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u5165\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u540e\u5f97\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u786e\u5b9a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5916\u751f\u6027\u597d\u574f\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e86\u5728\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u68c0\u9a8c(placebo test)\uff0c\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e86\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u6027\u522b\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7b49\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u8ddd\u79bb\u5c9b\u5c7f\u96be\u6c11\u5230\u8fbe\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u57280\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u8ddd\u79bb\u8fdc\u8fd1\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u654c\u610f\u5417\uff1f|<\/p>\n

\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6839\u636e\u7814\u7a76\u5185\u5bb9\u505a\u4e86\u5b9e\u5730\u8c03\u7814\uff0c\u8c03\u7814\u5730\u70b9\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5e0c\u814a\u6240\u6709\u6709\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u5c9b\u5c7f\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u5206\u6790\u95ee\u5377\u65f6\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u8861\u91cf\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5bf9\u5f85\u96be\u6c11\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u60c5\u611f\u6e29\u5ea6\u8ba1(feeling thermometer) \uff0c\u6d4b\u91cf\u5f53\u5730\u5c45\u6c11\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u5916\u6765\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u5229\u75282SLS\u5206\u6790\u51fa\u4e86\u96be\u6c11\u5230\u8fbe\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u770b\u5f85\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u53ca\u76f8\u5e94\u884c\u4e3a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff08Robustness\uff09\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u8003\u5bdf\u4e0d\u540c\u5c9b\u5c7f\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u9664\u4e86\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5ce1\u8ddd\u79bb\u5dee\u5f02\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0d\u540c\u70b9\u3002<\/span>\u4ed6\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u3001<\/span>\u4fdd\u7559\u8ddd\u79bb\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6d77\u5cb8\u8f83\u8fd1\uff08255km\u4ee5\u5185\uff09\u7684\u5c9b\u5c7f\u3001\u7528\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u91cd\u65b0\u68c0\u9a8c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u56de\u5f52\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u68c0\u9a8c\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u6700\u540e\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u66b4\u9732\u5728\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ea7\u751f\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u673a\u5236\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u65c5\u6e38\u4e1a\u83b7\u5f97\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u6f6e\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff1f\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u6536\u5165\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b<\/strong>\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u96be\u6c11\u805a\u96c6\u533a\u9644\u8fd1\u662f\u5426\u662f\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u9760\u8fd1\u96be\u6c11\u805a\u96c6\u70b9\u7684\u5730\u533a\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u654c\u610f\u4e0a\u5347\u6700\u591a<\/strong>\u3002<\/span>\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u53cd\u79fb\u6c11\u60c5\u7eea\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u5b58\u5728<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u901a\u7535\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span>galvanization effects<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u4e8b\u5148\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u662f\u5426\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u9884\u5148\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5c45\u6c11\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u60c5\u7eea\u662f\u57fa\u672c\u4e00\u81f4\u7684<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\n
3
<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

 \u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5bf9\u95ee\u5377\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u66b4\u9732\u5728\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u90fd\u4f7f\u5f97\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u6392\u4ed6\u5fc3\u7406\u3001\u5bf9\u907f\u96be\u6240\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u76f4\u63a5\u88ab\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u4e2d\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u907f\u96be\u8005\u548c\u53cd\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u6807\u51c6\u6307\u6807\u76f8\u6bd4\u539f\u6765\u589e\u52a0\u4e8625%\uff0c\u53cd\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u6807\u51c6\u6307\u6807\u4e5f\u6bd4\u539f\u6765\u589e\u52a0\u4e861\/6\u3002<\/span>\u4e0e\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u9762\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u6f6e\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u53cd\u5bf9\u63a5\u6536\u989d\u5916\u7684\u907f\u96be\u8005\uff0c\u66f4\u652f\u6301\u5b66\u6821\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u5b50\u5973\u7684\u7981\u4ee4\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u96be\u6c11\u7f72\u7684\u6350\u732e\u4e5f\u66f4\u5c11\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u654c\u610f\u662f\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4ece\u77ed\u671f\u6765\u770b\u5219\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u7968\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

1\u3001\u5728\u53cd\u5bf9\u907f\u96be\u8005\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u652f\u6301\u5b66\u6821\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u5b50\u5973\u5165\u5b66\u7684\u7981\u4ee4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

2\u3001\u5728\u53cd\u5bf9\u79fb\u6c11\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u652f\u6301\u51cf\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u79fb\u6c11\u548c\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

3\u3001\u5728\u53cd\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u66f4\u5f3a\u70c8\u5730\u53cd\u5bf9\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4ee3\u8868\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

4<\/span>\u3001\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u52a8\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u79ef\u6781\u5730\u53c2\u4e0e\u652f\u6301\u4e25\u683c\u907f\u96be\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\n
4
<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/strong>\u7ed3 \u8bed<\/strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u5229\u7528\u5728\u7231\u7434\u6d77\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff08natural experiment\uff09\uff0c\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span>\u4f5c\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u6216\u8f83\u5c11\u7ecf\u5386\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5c9b\u5c7f\u5c45\u6c11\uff0c\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u5927\u91cf<\/strong>\u4e14<\/strong>\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u96be\u6c11\u6d8c\u5165\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5bf9\u5e87\u62a4\u907f\u96be\u8005\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u548c\u7a46\u65af\u6797<\/strong>\u7684<\/strong>\u653f\u7b56\u66f4\u52a0\u654c\u89c6\uff0c\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u652f\u6301\u548c\u6e38\u8bf4\u66f4\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u5e87\u62a4\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5c9b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u7684<\/strong>\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65<\/strong>\u652f\u6301<\/strong>\u3002<\/span>\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u539f\u6765\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u5230\u8fbe\u4eba\u6570\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8c\u5143\u53d8\u91cf\u53d8\u6210\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd0\u7528\u53cc\u5bf9\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\uff08log-log\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5bf9\u5916\u6765\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u654c\u610f\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u96be\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u589e\u591a\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5730\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u51cf\u5c11\u7ed9\u4e88\u5e87\u62a4\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u88ab\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u5e0c\u814a\u5c9b\u5c7f\u5c45\u6c11\u548c\u672a\u88ab\u66b4\u9732\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u548c\u975e\u5e38\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u516c\u6c11\u4e0e\u975e\u5e38\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u89c2\u70b9\u5dee\u5f02\u4e00\u6837\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u96be\u6c11\u4e58\u98de\u673a\u65c5\u884c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u8f97\u8f6c\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u624d\u80fd\u5230\u8fbe\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u3002<\/span>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u8fc7\u5883\u56fd\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u524d\u5f80\u897f\u90e8\u7684\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u548c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u96be\u6c11\uff0c\u7ecf\u7ea6\u65e6\u3001\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u81f3\u5e0c\u814a\uff0c\u4ece\u90a3\u91cc\u6cbf\u7740\u5df4\u5c14\u5e72\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9a6c\u5176\u987f\uff0c\u6ce2\u65af\u5c3c\u4e9a\u548c\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\uff0c\u6216\u585e\u5c14\u7ef4\u4e9a\u548c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5230\u5965\u5730\u5229\u3002<\/span>\u6cbf\u7740\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\u7ebf\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u5f53\u5730\u4eba\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u8fc7\u5883\uff0c\u5176\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u7231\u7434\u6d77\u7fa4\u5c9b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002<\/span>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u671f\u671b\u5e0c\u814a\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u51e0\u4e2a\u5317\u975e\u8fc7\u5883\u56fd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u52a0\u6df1\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ea7\u751f\u79fb\u6c11\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u96be\u6c11\u5927\u91cf\u6d8c\u5165\u4e14\u77ed\u6682\u505c\u7559\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u53cd\u79fb\u6c11\u60c5\u7eea\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5f53\u5730\u5c45\u6c11\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6ce2\u8fc7\u5883\u96be\u6c11\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8e<\/strong><\/span>2016<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>3<\/span>\u6708\uff0c\u800c\u8c03\u67e5\u662f<\/span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u8bf4\u660e\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u5c45\u6c11\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u800c\u662f\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u907f\u96be\u8005\u7684\u6d8c\u5165\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5f15\u53d1\u5c45\u6c11\u5bf9\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u654c\u610f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u79fb\u6c11\u8005\u548c\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff08\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u5f53\u5730\u751f\u6d3b\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7a46\u65af\u6797\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\u672c\u6587\u7531\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u5e73\u53f0\u7f16\u8bd1\u63a8\u8350<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u66f4\u591a\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
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\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u5948\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u7684\u5174\u8870\uff1a\u4ece\u5a01\u5c14\u900a\u5230\u7279\u6717\u666e | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u63a8\u8350\u3011\u5df4\u91cc\u00b7\u5e03\u8d5e\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u5b66\u6d3e\u89c6\u89d2\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7c73\u5c14\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\uff1a\u6ce8\u5b9a\u5931\u8d25\uff1a\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5174\u8870 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u767e\u5e74\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u4e13\u9898\u5bfc\u8a00\uff1a\u5df4\u9ece\u548c\u4f1a\u540e\u7684\u767e\u5e74\u56fd\u5173 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u767e\u5e74\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u590d\u5174\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u51e1\u5c14\u8d5b\u9057\u4ea7 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u767e\u5e74\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u52b3\u4f26\u65af\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\uff1a\u5927\u56fd\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5174\u8870 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u767e\u5e74\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u4e00\u6218\u540e\u4e0d\u540c\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8f68\u8ff9 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u767e\u5e74\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u909d\u4e91\u5cf0\uff1a\u6743\u529b\u2014\u2014\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u7684\u5a01\u671b | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u767e\u5e74\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u5386\u53f2\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff1a\u4ece\u5df4\u9ece\u548c\u4f1a\u5230\u73b0\u5728 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7ef4\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6b66\u529b\u8fd0\u7528\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u3011\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u7406\u5ff5\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5f15\u5165\u6b67\u9014\uff1f| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u201c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bdd\u8bed | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u4e1d\u8def\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u65b0\u4e1d\u7ef8\u4e4b\u8def\uff1a\u6765\u81ea\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0e\u89c6\u89d2 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u82f1\u56fd\u5b66\u6d3e\u3011\u5f20\u52c7\u8fdb\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7b49\u7ea7\u5236\uff1a\u5b9e\u529b\u4e0e\u5bf9\u89c4\u8303\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u534f\u5546 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5730\u533a\u79e9\u5e8f\u3011\u8bba\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u53ef\u8f6c\u5316\u6027\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e0e\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5b89\u5168\u79e9\u5e8f | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010IPE\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5c01\u95ed\u7684\u5708\u5b50\uff1a\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u79bb\u5cb8\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb<\/span><\/a> <\/span>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u4e2d\u4fc4\u5173\u7cfb\u3011\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u7684\u4f19\u4f34\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf-\u5355\u5143\u52a8\u6001\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4fc4\u5173\u7cfb | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010IPE\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u201c1934\u5e74\u4f53\u5236\u201d\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff1f| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u3011\u65af\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u6c83\u5c14\u7279\uff1a\u50b2\u6162\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u514b\u5236\u7684\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u7406\u8bba\u6279\u5224\u3011\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u5c42\u6b21\u4e0e\u7ed3\u6784\u7406\u8bba\uff1a\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5e76\u975e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3011\u5355\u6781\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0b\u7684\u4e0d\u548c\u5e73\u72b6\u6001\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6b27\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4e0e\u5408\u89c4\uff1a\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u540e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6b27\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u79fb\u6c11\u5916\u4ea4\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u5916\u4ea4 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5386\u53f2\u5206\u6790\u3011\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5076\u7136\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ca\u5176\u5f71\u54cd | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5434\u5efa\u6811\uff1a\u6743\u529b\u3001\u9053\u5fb7\u3001\u5747\u52bf\u3001\u8054\u76df\u4e0e\u6469\u6839\u7d22\u2014\u2014\u6c49\u65af\u00b7\u6469\u6839\u7d22\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u601d\u60f3\u518d\u89e3\u8bfb<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3011\u5efa\u8bbe\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5168\u7403\u6cbb\u7406\u3011\u5168\u7403\u6cbb\u7406\uff1a\u4e00\u573a\u5173\u4e8e\u666e\u4e16\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6597\u4e89 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u53cb\u8c0a\u56fd\u5173\u3011\u5c06\u53cb\u8c0a\u91cd\u65b0\u5f15\u5165\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\uff1a\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u5230\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u672c\u4f53\u8bba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u79fb\u6c11\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u4f2a\u5584\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u6551\u63f4 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u653f\u515a\u5b9e\u529b\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff08Party Strength and Economic Growth\uff09| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u53f0\u6e7e\u5b66\u8005\u3011\u5411\u9a8f\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ece\u201c\u9738\u6743\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u5230\u201c\u9738\u51cc\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u53e4\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u3011\u5f20\u950b\uff1a\u53e4\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5112\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5916\u653f\u7b56\u4f20\u7edf | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u9738\u6743\u7814\u7a763.0\u7248\uff1a\u9738\u6743\u79e9\u5e8f\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5df4\u91cc\u00b7\u5e03\u8d5e\u7b49\uff1a\u91cd\u601d\u65e5\u672c\uff1a\u4e3b\u6d41\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u504f\u89c1 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6536\u5165\u95ee\u9898\u3011\u5168\u7403\u6027\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3011\u56fd\u5bb6\u7f18\u4f55\u9000\u51fa\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff1f| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5357\u4e9a\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u5357\u4e9a\u5bf9\u51b2\uff1a\u4e2d\u5370\u7ade\u4e89\u4e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u5e73\u8861 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3011\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u6bc1\u706d\uff1a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u6d6a\u8d39\u4e86\u5355\u6781\u65f6\u4ee3 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52a1\u3011\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e3a\u4f55\u6709\u6548\uff1f<\/span>| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u3011\u8c01\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e2d\u9886\u5bfc\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff1f \u2014\u2014\u57fa\u4e8e2014\u5e74\u6b27\u6d32\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u7814\u7a76 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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