{"id":13402,"date":"2019-05-31T14:02:50","date_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/12\/30\/6a18a5b87f\/"},"modified":"2019-12-30T17:00:57","modified_gmt":"2019-12-30T09:00:57","slug":"6a18a5b87f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/2019\/05\/31\/6a18a5b87f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/p>\n


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\u7b80  \u4ecb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011<\/span><\/strong>Jeff D. Colgan<\/span>\uff0c\u5e03\u6717\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5173\u6ce8\u77f3\u6cb9\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u73af\u5883\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u539f\u56e0\u4e0e\u9769\u547d\u7b49\u3002<\/span>Jessica L.P. Weeks<\/span>\uff0c\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5927\u5b66\u9ea6\u8fea\u900a\u5206\u6821\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u662f\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u516c\u5171\u8206\u8bba\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u7f16\u8bd1\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u5170\u661f\u8fb0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6821\u5bf9\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u5f6d\u5c0f\u6735 \u674e\u96ef\u73f2<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u5ba1\u6838\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u4e01\u4f1f\u822a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>International Organization <\/span>,<\/span>winter 2015, Vol. 69, No.1, pp.163-194.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S0020818314000307<\/span><\/p>\n

\u3010\u671f\u520a\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u300b\uff08International Organization\uff09\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0\u201c<\/span>IO<\/span>\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4efd\u7ecf\u8fc7\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u8bae\u7684\u5b63\u520a\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002\u5b83\u6210\u7acb\u4e8e<\/span>1947<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u4ee3\u8868\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u51fa\u7248\u3002<\/span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a<\/span>4.517<\/span>\uff0c\u5728<\/span>169<\/span>\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7c7b\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c<\/span>2<\/span>\uff0c\u5728<\/span>85<\/span>\u79cd\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7c7b\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c<\/span>1<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Revolution, Personalist Dictatorships, and International Conflict<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n


<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/p>\n

Jeff D. Colgan<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/p>\n

Jessica L.P. Weeks<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5185\u5bb9\u63d0\u8981<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u9769\u547d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5377\u5165\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5728<\/span><\/span>\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4f55\u65f6\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u9769\u547d\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9769\u547d\u5f15\u53d1\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u9769\u547d\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u65e2\u5f80\u7814\u7a76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9769\u547d\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u6709\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u4e0a\u53f0\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u672c\u6587\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u9769\u547d\u4ea6\u9891\u7e41\u5bfc\u81f4\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\u3001\u6216\u8005\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u548c\u60e9\u7f5a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u653f\u6743\u3002\u9020\u6210\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u9769\u547d\u4e0e\u672a\u5bfc\u81f4\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u9769\u547d\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u653f\u6743\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u4e49\u504f\u597d\u548c\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u906d\u53d7\u7684\u9650\u5236\u66f4\u5c11\u3001\u6267\u653f\u65f6\u95f4\u66f4\u957f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6311\u8d77\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6587\u7ae0\u5bfc\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u9769\u547d\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7ecf\u4e45\u4e0d\u8870\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9769\u547d\u540e\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9769\u547d\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u65b0\u751f\u653f\u6743\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u975e\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u8003\u8651\u5230\u638c\u6743\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5177\u6709\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u597d\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u672c\u6587\u5bf9\u9769\u547d\u5bfc\u81f4\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u673a\u5236\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u9769\u547d\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u9769\u547d\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6267\u653f\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u7684\u9650\u5236\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6210\u4e3a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u4e0e\u672a\u6210\u4e3a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6311\u8d77\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u72ec\u88c1\u4f53\u5236\u4e0b\u6210\u4e3a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u975e\u72ec\u88c1\u4f53\u5236\u4e0b\u6210\u4e3a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u4efb\u671f\u66f4\u957f\uff08\u975e\u72ec\u88c1\u4f53\u5236\u4e0b\u6210\u4e3a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u88ab\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u66ff\u4ee3\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u5c31\u66f4\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u5e94\u7528\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6311\u6218\u73b0\u72b6\u8fdb\u800c\u6311\u8d77\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\uff1a\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u9769\u547d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\u548c\u9ad8\u70c8\u5ea6\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u7d27\u5bc6\u8054\u7cfb<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe\u4e8c\uff1a\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u4e0e\u975e\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6311\u52a8\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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1.1 \u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u662f<\/span>1946\u5e74<\/span>2000<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u5177\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u4e24<\/span><\/span>\u4e2a\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u5728\u754c\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u9996\u5148\u754c\u5b9a\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u9769\u547d<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/strong>R<\/span><\/strong>EVOLUTION\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u548c<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u201d\uff08REVOLUTIONARY LEADER<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u9769\u547d\u6709\u65e0\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8c\u5143\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u522b\u662f<\/span>1\u548c<\/span>0<\/span>\u3002\u9769\u547d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u6765\u754c\u5b9a\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u5426\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u3001\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6c11\u4f17\u793a\u5a01\u7b49<\/span><\/span>\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span><\/span>\u4e0a\u53f0\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u4e0a\u53f0\u7684\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u5426\u6539\u53d8\u5305\u62ec\u8d22\u4ea7\u6743\u3001\u653f\u6559\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u3001\u56fd\u540d\u548c\u8c61\u5f81\u7b49<\/span>7\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u5728\u5185\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u5f53\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u6539\u53d8\u4e86<\/span>7<\/span>\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u7684<\/span>3<\/span>\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u88ab\u754c\u5b9a\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c<\/span>\u9769\u547d<\/span><\/span>\u6027\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span>revolutionary\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u754c\u5b9a\u9769\u547d\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u548c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u56fd\u5bb6\u9769\u547d\u6027\u8d28<\/span><\/span>\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\uff08<\/span><\/span>ambiguous<\/span> <\/span>revolutions<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u628a\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u4e0d\u6613\u754c\u5b9a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6311\u9009\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\u4e3b\u8981\u6d4b\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u901a\u8fc7\u9886\u5bfc\u9769\u547d\u4e0a\u53f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u9769\u547d\u4e0a\u53f0\u5219\u88ab\u7f16\u7801\u4e3a\u6b63\u3002\u5728\u754c\u5b9a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u540e\u9769\u547d\u65f6\u671f<\/span>\u201d<\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/strong>P<\/span><\/strong>OSTREVOLUTIONARY PERIOD\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4ee5<\/span>10\u5e74\u4e3a\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb<\/span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u91cc\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u9769\u547d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u88ab\u7f16\u7801\u4e3a<\/span>1<\/span>\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e3a<\/span>0<\/span>\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u672c\u6587\u4e5f\u4ee5<\/span>8<\/span>\u5e74\u548c<\/span>12<\/span>\u5e74\u4e3a\u6807\u51c6\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u7b2c<\/span><\/span>\u4e8c\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u72ec\u88c1<\/span>\u201d(personalist dictatorship)<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u754c\u5b9a<\/span><\/span>\u653f\u6743\u662f\u5426\u4e3a\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u4e3b\u8981<\/span><\/span>\u5173\u6ce8\u4e86\u653f\u6743\u7684\u516b\u4e2a\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/strong>\u9769\u547d<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u201d\u3001<\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u201d\u3001<\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u540e\u9769\u547d\u65f6\u671f<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u201d<\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684<\/span>Jeff D. Colgan\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c<\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u72ec\u88c1<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u201d<\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e00\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u7684<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005<\/span>Jessica L.P. Weeks\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u7f3a\u7701\u503c\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u5408<\/span>Gedds\uff0c<\/span>Wright<\/span>\u548c<\/span>Frantz<\/span>\uff08<\/span>GWF<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u6765\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7f51\u4e0a\u9644\u5f55\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1.2 \u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u68c0\u9a8c\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>1\u548c\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>2<\/span>\uff0c\u672c\u6587<\/span><\/span>\u6839\u636e<\/span><\/span>\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\uff08<\/span>Militarized Interstate Di<\/span><\/strong>s<\/ins><\/span><\/strong>putes\uff0c<\/span>MIDs<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\uff08<\/span>INITMID\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u5e76\u5728<\/span><\/span>\u6240\u6709\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u53c8\u7279\u522b\u6311\u9009\u51fa\u4e86\u9020\u6210<\/span><\/span>\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u540d\u519b\u4e8b<\/span><\/span>\u4eba\u5458\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u9ad8\u70c8\u5ea6\u7684\u81f4\u6b7b\u6027\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81<\/span><\/span>\uff08<\/span><\/span><\/strong>I<\/span><\/strong>NITFATAL\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u8d1f\u4e8c\u9879\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5e76\u7efc\u5408\u4f7f\u7528\u53cc\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u8fdb\u884c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u4e3a\u68c0\u9a8c\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>3\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u9009\u5b9a\u7684\u7b2c<\/span><\/span>\u4e8c<\/span><\/span>\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u4efb\u671f\uff08<\/span>TENURE\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6267\u653f\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

1.3 \u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u9009\u53d6\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5e94\u7528<\/span>MIDs\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5305\u62ec\u519b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u529b<\/span>(CAPABILITIES)<\/span>\u3001\u8054\u76df\u60c5\u51b5<\/span><\/span>(<\/span>ALLIANCES)\u3001<\/span><\/span>\u5730\u7406\u4f4d\u7f6e\u76f8\u90bb<\/span>(<\/span>CONTIGUITY)\u3001\u5185\u6218<\/span><\/span>(<\/span>CIVIL WAR)\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u4f9d\u8d56\u5ea6\u548c\u5f00\u653e\u5ea6<\/span><\/span>(<\/span>TRADE INTERDEPENDENCE AND OPENESS)\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u5404\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u53cc\u8fb9\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u754c\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u8003\u539f\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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3
<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

 \u603b\u4f53\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong>
<\/p>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u6587\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u754c\u5b9a\u548c\u68c0\u9a8c\u6bd4\u8f83\u590d\u6742\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u8003\u539f\u6587\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\u53c2\u8003\u4e0b\u56fe<\/span>3<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/p>\n

\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u9769\u547d\u90fd\u5404\u81ea\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u653f\u6743\u53d1\u52a8\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u9769\u547d\u540e\u5f62\u6210<\/span><\/span>\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u578b\u653f\u6743\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u9769\u547d\u540e\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6311\u8d77\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u9769\u547d\u540e\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u53d1\u52a8\u548c\u4ecb\u5165\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u7ea6<\/span><\/span>71%\uff08<\/span>246\/345<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u9769\u547d\u540e\u65b0\u751f\u653f\u6743\u6709<\/span><\/span>47%<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u5728\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u6267\u653f\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896<\/span><\/span>\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u6311\u8d77<\/span><\/span>\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u6bd4\u7387<\/span><\/span>\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5728\u975e\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u6267\u653f\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\uff08<\/span>0.73vs0.32\uff09\uff0c\u9769\u547d\u540e\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u7684\u9769\u547d\u9886\u8896\u6267\u653f\u65f6\u95f4<\/span><\/span>\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a<\/span>10.6\u5e74<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u9ad8\u4e8e\u975e\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u7684<\/span>5.5\u5e74<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u53cc\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u90fd\u5f97\u5230\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6253\u5f00\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u8981\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u9ed1\u7bb1\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u9769\u547d\u540e\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u653f\u6743\u7c7b\u578b\u548c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6743\u529b\u7b49\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u672c\u6587\u7531\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\u5fae\u4fe1\u5e73\u53f0\u72ec\u5bb6\u7f16\u8bd1\u9996\u53d1<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u66f4\u591a\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u5948\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u7684\u5174\u8870\uff1a\u4ece\u5a01\u5c14\u900a\u5230\u7279\u6717\u666e | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u63a8\u8350\u3011\u5df4\u91cc\u00b7\u5e03\u8d5e\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u5b66\u6d3e\u89c6\u89d2\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a>
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\u3010\u91cd\u78c5\u901f\u9012\u3011\u7c73\u5c14\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\uff1a\u6ce8\u5b9a\u5931\u8d25\uff1a\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5174\u8870 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7ef4\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6b66\u529b\u8fd0\u7528\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u3011\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u7406\u5ff5\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5f15\u5165\u6b67\u9014\uff1f| \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u3011\u201c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bdd\u8bed | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\"\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba\uff09\uff1a\u3010\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u3011IO\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u9769\u547d\u3001\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81 | \u56fd\u653f\u5b66\u4eba<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7b80  \u4ecb \u3010\u4f5c\u8005\u3011Jeff D<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13403,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[24,26],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13402"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13402"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13410,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13402\/revisions\/13410"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/115.238.178.234:8090\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}